Saturday, March 29, 2008

 

Elite Eight Picks

On my original bracket, I went 6-2 in the regional semifinals (with Georgetown and Duke already eliminated). My picks here went 8-0, however. For my regional final picks, I haven't changed my mind on any of my three picks that are still alive, North Carolina, UCLA, and Texas. For the Midwest, I'll have to take Kansas over Davidson. Sure, Bill Self is still coaching the Jayhawks, but they're the only team the Wildcats have faced so far that can beat them in the athleticism department. Gus Johnson is right when he says KU "looks like an NBA team," especially since his other employer (the Knicks) would probably lose to Kansas at this point. I wouldn't be shocked if Stephen Curry shoots Davidson to the Alamodome, however.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

 

Onto the Regionals...

I'm pretty happy with the young Gators pulling out a huge win in the desert last night to make it to New York. On the other hand, I'm still stunned by the 26-point el foldo act the Orange pulled immediately before. The only good thing about that is that I'm not faced with watching a UF-SU semifinal. I can now cheer wholeheartedly for the Gators to beat UMass.

As for the big tournament, I needed to pull the trigger on some more upsets. I also need to put Clemson on my Kansas/Pitt list of teams to never pick. I was thinking that if Syracuse had beaten Villanova in the Big East tournament rubber match and made the field, they would probably have also made the Sweet Sixteen if placed in that Tampa pod. The Orange-Tiger game would've been an epic watch, which team would manage to choke it away first?

My first weekend record of 28-20 stinks. I lost one Final Four team (Georgetown) and one Elite Eight squad (Duke).

Round 1: 20-12 (22-10 last year)

Round 2: 8-8 (12-4 last year)

As for this year's regional semis, here are my updated picks.

Thursday - Charlotte

North Carolina over Washington State One thing is for sure, the Heels aren't going to score 100 plus in this one. The Cougs just won't have enough offense to pull it out. Plus, the crowd will be a factor working against them.

Louisville over Tennessee
I picked Butler to knock off the Vols, and they came tantalizingly close to making me look smart for the first time this tournament. I then picked the Cards to take out the Bulldogs. The Vols have point guard issues and Chris Lofton has a minor leg injury, while the Cards have for the most part rolled through the last month. A more disciplined Louisville squad further exposes the Vols' shortcomings to move on.

Thursday - Phoenix
Xavier over West Virginia I was very tempted to take the Mountaineers here, since this is a fairly even matchup talent-wise. The only problem is the fact that WVU fouls A LOT, and Xavier does a good job of making their free throws.

UCLA over Western Kentucky The only chance the Hilltoppers have is for Courtney Lee, Tyrone Brazelton, and A.J. Slaughter to hit about 30 threes. Kevin Love creates an matchup problem that WKU won't have an answer for. Plus, if all else fails for the Bruins, they'll probably have the refs on their side. I don't see any close calls handing them victory, however.

Friday - Detroit
Davidson over Wisconsin I may be a little nuts for picking this one. I just think that if the Wildcats can handle Georgetown, they can also handle the Badgers. Stephen Curry will probably be double or triple-teamed all night, but he'll still get his shot, and his teammates are going to get opportunities because of all the attention focused on the Babyfaced Assassin. The only concern I have is that Wisky will have had five days to prepare, and they already are one of the best defensive teams left.

Kansas over Villanova Kansas has way too much of everything for the Wildcats. Plus, this Nova team is shooting far better than it did during the season, which can't last (and probably won't heading into the bad shooting environment they'll encounter at Ford Field).

Friday - Houston
Texas over Stanford Two keys for the Longhorns: superior guard play and smarter defense on the Lopez twins than Marquette played. Of course, I predicted Marquette would beat the Cardinal based on guard play, but D.J. Augustin is otherworldly for a college point guard and Texas does a great job of holding onto the ball at each position.

Memphis over Michigan State Tom Izzo could try the "Hack a Tiger" strategy here. The Spartans chances will hinge on how well their outside shooters adjust to shooting in the dome environment. It shouldn't matter, as the Tigers overall athleticism and skill will get them to another regional final, however.

Elite Eight picks Saturday.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

 

Pick time

I was out watching the Syracuse NIT game last night, since my cable company still deprives us of four-letter U. Thankfully, the Gator game tonight is on a station I actually get.

Well, tomorrow is the big day. It's time to look at my picks for this year's bracket. The hope is I can do as well with my game picks as I did with selecting the field. (Ha ha) I don't think lightning will strike twice, but I'm going to give it a go. Here's a link to the completed bracket.

However, before we take a look at 2008, let's take a look back at 2007.

First round: 22-10 (.688 - marginally better than 2006)
Second round: 12-4 (.750 - a game better than 2006)
Regional Semis: 7-1 (.875 far better than 2006's .250. I only missed Texas A&M.)
Regional Finals: 3-1 (.750 - far better again than 2006's .250)
Rest of the way: 2-1 (.667 - I needed a Gators-Georgetown final. Let that be a lesson to you readers, never pick a team you despise when you need them to win.)
Total tournament: 46-17 (.730, much better than the .540 I posted in 2006)

Let's move on to 2008.

EAST
Round One
North Carolina
Indiana over Arkansas. In a battle of two teams who's mental state can be questioned at the moment, take the team with superior talent.
George Mason over Notre Dame, in a close one. Luke Harangody will have his hands full with Will Thomas. Patriots need to make sure they put a body on Kyle McAlarney, however.
Washington State over Winthrop, also in a close one.
Oklahoma over St. Joseph's This game could go either way, but I like the Sooners since they're healthy, especially inside.
Louisville
Butler over South Alabama Everyone is making a big deal about the Jaguars having a home court advantage in this one, but I think that's overblown. Butler is too good of a team to let that get into their heads.
Tennessee

Round Two
North Carolina again
Washington State ensures it won't be a repeat of 2006 for the Patriots
Louisville
Butler over Tennessee, as the Vols lack of fundamentals will be exposed by a Bulldog team that's better than the one that played UF close last year.

Regional Semifinals
North Carolina over Wazzu
Louisville ends Butler's run, gaining revenge for 2003 in Birmingham.

Regional Final
North Carolina
over Louisville, though I'd be tempted to take the Cardinals if it wasn't in Charlotte.

MIDWEST
Round One
Kansas
Kent State over UNLV in one of the most intriguing matchups in the tournament.
Clemson over Villanova in a game that can go either way.
Vanderbilt will get a scare out of Siena, but survive.
USC over Kansas State in the battle of Mayo vs. Beasley. O.J. has too much healthy talent surrounding him.
Wisconsin will survive Fullerton.
Davidson over Gonzaga. The fact it's a 9:25 Pacific time start in the Wildcats backyard is bound to throw the Bulldogs.
Georgetown

Round Two
Kansas since they've done well against the MAC this year.
Clemson will have too much for a Vandy team that doesn't do well away from Memorial Gym.
Southern Cal's talent is too much for Wisconsin.
Georgetown ends Davidson's hopes.

Regional Semifinals
Kansas over Clemson
Georgetown over USC based on their experience.

Regional Final
Georgetown
over Kansas. I'm picking against the Jayhawks until a Bill Self-coached team wins a game that matters.

WEST
Round One
UCLA
BYU over a very inconsistent Texas A&M team.
Western Kentucky uses the best player on the court, Courtney Lee, to get by Drake.
Connecticut over San Diego
Baylor over Purdue, even though the Boilers do pretty well against guard-oriented teams. The Bears guards are just speedier than anything they've seen.
Xavier ends Georgia's miracle run
Arizona has something to prove and a ton of talent, so they dispatch overseeded WVU.
Duke

Round Two
UCLA as the Bruins are sick of seeing the Cougars after two football meetings this year.
UConn
Xavier gets by Baylor
Duke wins an epic battle with Arizona.

Regional Semifinals
UCLA over Connecticut
Duke over Xavier

Regional Final
UCLA
beats Duke based on their interior play.

SOUTH
Round One
Memphis
Mississippi State over the overseeded Oregon Ducks.
Temple knocks an inconsistent Michigan State team out.
Pitt survives Oral Roberts' inside-outside game.
Marquette over Kentucky, provided they shoot better than they did at this stage last year.
Stanford over Cornell in the SAT Bowl
St. Mary's over a seriously overseeded Miami squad, the same way Winthrop beat the Canes, from the perimeter. Makes me glad Syracuse doesn't play the Gaels.
Texas

Round Two
Memphis struggles with Miss. State, but advances.
Pitt barely over Temple.
Marquette's guards mean a win over Stanford. (Think the Louisville game last year, only not as much of a blowout.)
Texas over St. Mary's in the teams' second meeting of the year.

Regional Semifinals
Memphis over Pitt. See my comments on Kansas above. The Panthers have yet to prove to me they can get past this stage.
Texas over Marquette.

Regional Final
Texas
uses their de facto home court advantage to get by Memphis.

National Semifinals
UNC over Georgetown
Texas over UCLA. The Longhorns beat them once, and that was at Pauley. Just think what they could do in San Antonio.

National Final
Texas over UNC. The Tar Heels just are missing something defensively. The Longhorns already own wins over 2 one seeds and a two this season. Their experience from those matchups and the San Antonio crowd will push them to victory.

E-mail me with your comments and questions.


Monday, March 17, 2008

 

Let's Review

Last year at this time I wrote, "This season gave the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee a selection and seeding process that involved more challenges than ever before. Unbalanced scheduling in the major conferences produced convoluted conference races and logjams everywhere."

It seems that in the span of one year, little has changed. The names may be a bit different (Arizona State instead of Syracuse, for example), and some conference tournament results ultimately shrunk the bubble. However, the selection committee's inconsistencies again leave basketball fans with a lot of questions.

Had Georgia not won the SEC tournament late Sunday afternoon, I would've had Arizona State as my last team in. Why did I drop them and not Villanova or Oregon? Well, I didn't like the Sun Devils 5-10 record to end the season. The committee's official reasons for leaving them out - their high RPI and strength of schedule. However, teams like St. Mary's and South Alabama got at-large bids with worse SOS numbers and the committee's dedication to the RPI didn't extend to tomorrow night's opening round matchup.

The committee also decided to have the mid-majors cannibalize each other yet again. There are four first round matchups between mid-major teams that all would've had a good chance to defeat major conference teams (UNLV-Kent State, Drake-Western Kentucky, Gonzaga-Davidson, Butler-South Alabama). Gonzaga and Butler will have to try to win in their opponents' backyards. Remember though, the last time the tournament was in Birmingham, Butler advanced to the Sweet Sixteen out of that site.

More about matchups when I make my picks Wednesday, I'll now review the seeds line by line.

1 seeds: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas I seriously spent most of Sunday with Tennessee in Kansas's spot. I changed my mind after watching the first half of the Big 12 championship game. My thought was there was no way the winner of that highly competitive game was going to be on the 2 line. Turns out I was correct.
My picks: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas

2 seeds: Georgetown, Duke, Texas, Tennessee I had Wisconsin here instead of the Hoyas, figuring that even in a down year, winning both the regular season and tournament Big Ten titles would carry some weight for the Badgers. I don't understand why Georgetown isn't the 2 in the East instead of Tennessee. Again, this is an example of the committee being inconsistent with the RPI. Why reward the top RPI and SOS team with not only a 2 seed, but the worst two seed, and the potential of a matchup with Carolina in their backyard that goes with it?
My picks: Tennessee, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin

3 seeds: Louisville, Stanford
, Xavier, Wisconsin Other than flipping Wisconsin and Georgetown, the committee did a good job with the 3 line. Xavier could've moved down to the 4 line after dropping two games to St. Joe's in a week and a half, but their season's worth of work kept them here. However, if Indiana is going to drop precipitously based on their late season performance, I was a bit surprised the Musketeers' play with an injured Drew Lavender didn't cost them.
My picks: Georgetown, Stanford, Louisville, Xavier

4 seeds: Vanderbilt
, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Washington State I thought Vandy wasn't good enough away from home to get a protected seed. I also thought that Washington State had underachieved at an almost Michigan State-like level this season. Pitt's really starting to roll since Levance Fields' return, so this seeding is completely deserved after winning the Big East tournament the hard way.
My picks: Pittsburgh, Drake, Connecticut, Notre Dame

5 seeds: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Drake
, Clemson The Tigers were the only team here that I had spot on, but the other three were within a line. Remember that 5 seeds are also technically protected, so I was stunned to see an inconsistent Michigan State team this high. Notre Dame's spotty road/neutral record and Drake's non-conference schedule probably played a role with why they're here instead of line 5. However, neither team is at a huge geographic disadvantage in their pods (especially the Irish, with their huge national following).
My picks: Butler, Clemson, Indiana, Vanderbilt

6 seeds: Southern Cal, Purdue, Marquette, Oklahoma The only team I have a beef with here is Oklahoma, another team who is terribly inconsistent. I really thought they'd be at least a line lower after getting shellacked by Texas twice in their last 7, along with that 27-point loss at home to Texas A&M a couple of weeks back. (I had them as an 8.) Purdue would have been higher had they not dropped their Big Ten quarterfinal to Illinois.
My picks: Southern Cal, Marquette, Michigan State, Purdue


7 seeds: Butler, Miami, West Virginia, Gonzaga Butler is probably here because their non-conference wins didn't really pan out as really good wins. Still, they should be seeded ahead of Oklahoma based on their finishing kick. As for Miami, 9-9 in ACC games and one non-conference win against a tourney team is worthy of a 7 seed? West Virginia's record away from Morgantown should've kept them lower.
My picks: Washington State, Gonzaga, UNLV, Texas A&M

8 seeds: Indiana, Mississippi State, BYU, UNLV Indiana is another headscratcher. Sure they've struggled under Dan Dakich, but this team's overall body of work is worthy of more than this. The others are all close to where they should be.
My picks: Oklahoma, West Virginia, BYU, Arkansas

9 seeds: Kent State, Texas A&M, Oregon, Arkansas Even though I had A&M higher, the 8/9 game is probably the best place for them. Kent State and Arkansas are pretty much spot on. It's apparent that Oregon wasn't the committee's last team in since they're this high. I just cannot figure out why. Again, 18-13 and 9-10 in the Pac-10 seems like a 12 seed to me.
My picks: Davidson, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Kent State

10 seeds: Davidson, Arizona, St. Mary's, South Alabama This is the most dangerous collection of 10 seeds I've seen in awhile. Davidson and Arizona were both within a line, so I have no real arguments with the committee here.
My picks: St. Mary's, Kentucky, Miami, South Alabama

11 seeds: St. Joseph's, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas State I figured K-State would be higher, but with the way they finished, an 11 seed is understandable. I also thought Temple would be higher than St. Joe's based on winning the season series (since there isn't too much difference in their resumes, other than the Hawks getting wins over Villanova and two over Xavier). In the case of these two teams, the seeding switch gave them the matchups they needed to succeed.
My picks: Villanova, Arizona, Temple, Baylor

12 seeds: Villanova, Western Kentucky, Temple, George Mason I had the Hilltoppers as a 13 until Georgia won. I thought Nova would be a line higher and I've already discussed the other two Philly teams in the field.
My picks: George Mason, Western Kentucky, St. Joseph's, Oregon

13 seeds: Winthrop, Oral Roberts, San Diego, Siena I thought Georgia would be here because no major conference team had ever been seeded lower than 14. I also thought Winthrop would be a line lower, since this team isn't quite as good as the last two. I figured Cornell would be here since went unbeaten in the Ivy League, beat Siena, and played Duke close for 30 minutes. In hindsight, this was probably a better landing spot for USD.
My picks: Siena, Georgia, Cornell, Oral Roberts

14 seeds: Cal State-Fullerton, Georgia, Cornell, Boise State Other than thinking the Bulldogs and Big Red would be higher, I can't argue with this group.
My picks: San Diego, Winthrop, Cal State-Fullerton, Boise State

15 seeds: American, Austin Peay, Belmont, Maryland-Baltimore County I had Portland State here instead of American, but I have to assume the committee was rewarding the Eagles for the relative strength of the Patriot League this season.
My picks: Portland State, Maryland-Baltimore County, Belmont, Austin Peay

16 seeds: Portland State, Mississippi Valley State, Texas-Arlington, Mount St. Mary's, Coppin State Political correctness aside, the opening round game should be Mississippi Valley State-Coppin State. Why? Well, if the committee is valuing the RPI all of a sudden, and the two lowest-rated teams are supposed to play in Dayton, logic dicates that the teams ranked 227 and 228 should be there. (Coppin State is 14-20, but is one spot higher than the Delta Devils.) Mount St. Mary's is 69 spots higher than the Devils. The Mountaineers had better hope they play like Niagara did when placed in this game last season.
My picks: American, Mount Saint Mary's, Texas-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Coppin State

I'll post more tomorrow and post my picks on Wednesday.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

 

Brief Post-Mortem

Here's the simple statistical breakdown for the year and a comparison to last year and 2007.

All 34 at-larges correct (32 of 34 in both 2006 and 2007)

36 seeds correct (23 in 2007, 28 in 2006)
22 off by 1 line (25 in 2007, 19 in 2006)
4 off by 2 lines (12 in 2007, 13 in 2006)
3 off by 3 lines (1 in 2007,3 in 2006)
0 off by 4 lines (3 in 2007, 3 in 2006)

I'll post a more detailed analysis tomorrow night. I've yet to really look at the actual bracket, though I have noticed there are quite a few early mid-major matchups.

 

Final Bracket

In my last post, I promised this would be short. Here's my final bracket (seed list).

Villanova and Oregon are in, replacing Virginia Tech and Ohio State. The Buckeyes really needed another win over Michigan State to feel safe, and the Hokies needed to pull that one out against North Carolina yesterday. Villanova moved up after both Pitt and Temple won their conference tournaments yesterday. As for the Ducks, I feel the committee is going to reward them because they have a few more quality wins than either the Buckeyes or Hokies.
Georgia's win in the SEC final knocked Arizona State out. The Sun Devils' 5-10 mark in their last 15 games was the factor that caused me to drop them.

I'll discuss the bracket more this evening and tomorrow night.

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 8
Pac 10 - 6
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
ACC - 4
Big 10 - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
West Coast - 3
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

New This Bracket
Boise State (auto)
Coppin State (auto)
Georgia (auto)
Oregon
Texas-Arlington (auto)
Villanova

Out of This Bracket
Arizona State
Morgan State (auto)
New Mexico State (auto)
Northwestern State (auto)
Ohio State
Virginia Tech

Last Four In

Arizona
Villanova
Oregon
St. Joseph's

Last Four Out
Arizona State
Illinois State
Ohio State
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
Dayton
Mississippi
New Mexico
Virginia Commonwealth

E-mail me with comments or questions.


 

Opening Round Projection

Since the Selection Committee says they'll announce the matchup for Tuesday's Opening Round game by 3:30 today, my projection for this one is the two teams in the field at the moment who have losing records, Coppin State from the MEAC and Mississippi Valley State from the SWAC. It may not be politically correct to place two HBCUs in Dayton, but the profiles of these two teams stand out from the rest of the field. Northwestern State from the Southland could slide in here and replace MVSU if they come back against Texas-Arlington, but this isn't looking likely.

Final bracket and a very quick rundown will be out around 5:30. I have a couple of drafts ready and some contingencies in place based on if Georgia wins the SEC or Illinois takes the Big Ten.

Expect a post-mortem tonight or at the latest tomorrow evening. Tuesday, I'll have a little on my travels over the past week. Wednesday is picks time.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

 

Two Days of Nervous Excitement

I held off on releasing a bracket last night, since there were a ton of very important games going on. Today's bracket (seed list) is my second to last for this season, and there has been quite a bit of shuffling.

Changes In the Top Four Lines

On the top line, I swapped Tennessee and UCLA's order on the top line, something I was thinking about before either played yesterday. On line two, I swapped Duke and Texas. That means the current ideal Elite Eight matchups in this bracket are North Carolina-Georgetown (East), Memphis-Duke (South), UCLA-Texas (West), and Tennessee-Kansas (Midwest).

Louisville returns to the three line, swapping places with Notre Dame, who lost right after I put my Thursday bracket out. (Now you see why I didn't put anything out last night...) Stanford and Wisconsin remain 3 seeds. So does Xavier, despite their second loss to bracket newcomer St. Joseph's in the past 8 days.

Drake and Michigan State move up to the 4 line after Purdue and Indiana lost their Big Ten quarterfinals to inferior opponents. The Bulldogs and Spartans join the Irish and holdover UConn.

The A-14 Is Bursting Bubbles Left and Right, the Big Televen May Soon

Xavier's loss to St. Joe's means that 2 seed Temple takes the Atlantic 10's auto bid for this bracket. If they lose tonight, an at-large should open back up, but if they win... Illinois or Minnesota
could also steal an at-large if they win the Big Ten tournament Sunday. (You have to hope the selection committee is sweating this one out, as this could make their process even more crunched.) The delay in the SEC tournament, thanks to the severe weather affecting the Georgia Dome last night could also create problems, as Georgia's only way in is through the auto bid, Kentucky needs the games for their profile, and Tennessee needs the wins for a one seed.

In terms of new at-larges, St. Joseph's is back in after beating Xavier again. They should be safe even if they lose. The A-10 semis mean that Illinois State and UMass drop out of the bracket. Virginia Tech's win over Miami in the ACC quarters, put the Hokies in and pushed VCU out.

In the land of auto bids, congratulations to American University! The Eagles beat Colgate 52-46 to make their first NCAA tournament. I've been to three Final Fours and seen the nets cut down twice, but the atmosphere in Bender Arena was truly something special yesterday evening. Today, I'm heading over to Baltimore to see if the UMBC Retrievers can make their first, and I'm contemplating a drive to Atlantic City to see St. Joe's-Temple.

Otherwise, several favorites lost last night. Top seeds UC Santa Barbara (Big West), Utah State (WAC), Alabama State (SWAC), and Stephen F. Austin (Southland) are all out, so their losses led to quite a bit of shuffling on the bottom four lines.

My final projection will come out Sunday afternoon.

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
ACC - 5
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
West Coast - 3
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

New This Bracket
Cal State-Fullerton (auto)
Mississippi Valley State (auto)
New Mexico State (auto)
Northwestern State (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Temple (auto)
Virginia Tech

Out of This Bracket
Alabama State (auto)
UC Santa Barbara (auto)
Illinois State
Massachusetts
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Utah State (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth


Last Four In

Illinois State
Ohio State
Virginia Commonwealth
Arizona State

Last Four Out
Illinois State
Oregon
Massachusetts
Virginia Commonwealth

Next Four Out
Dayton
Florida
Syracuse
Villanova

Also Considered (Barely at This Point)
UAB
Maryland
Mississippi
New Mexico

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

 

The First of the Final Four Projections

Since only two of the top eight (Memphis and Georgetown) were in action tonight and both won handily, there's no change in the top 8 of tonight's bracket (seed list). I'm writing this earlier than I'd planned tonight, since I need to get to work early so I can leave early to make the Pat League final tomorrow. Therefore, I won't be able to account for any games wrapping up beyond 10 p.m. Eastern. With this in mind, I swapped UConn and Stanford, dropping the Huskies down to the 4 line after their loss to West Virginia this afternoon. The Mountaineers moved up to the 8 line based on this result. Pitt moved up to the 7 line after beating Louisville, who also falls down to the 4 line. Notre Dame replaces them on the 3 line, which may change tomorrow based on what happens in their Big East quarterfinal with Marquette.

No New Entries Today

I won't have a horse in the race this year, as Florida's "Boeheim" burst after a simply awful first half against Alabama tonight. Two other bubble teams are just barely hanging on courtesy of others' failings. Baylor drops down to an 11 seed, after losing in 2OT to bottom seed Colorado in the Big 12 first round. Arizona State is right on the cut line at the moment, but miserable Pac 10 officiating cost them their quarterfinal with USC this afternoon. The Bears and Sun Devils are saved by the fact that UAB, Houston, Villanova, Florida, and Dayton all lost today. ASU needs to root for an Oregon loss tonight. The Ducks are the next team in line to move into this projection.

Next update will be tomorrow night/early Saturday morning.

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 4
West Coast - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Colonial - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

Last Four In

Illinois State
Ohio State
Virginia Commonwealth
Arizona State

Last Four Out
Oregon
New Mexico
Villanova
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
Florida
Maryland
Mississippi
Syracuse

Also Considered
UAB
Dayton
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

 

The Big Boys Get Into the Act

There are very few changes at the top of tonight's bracket (seed list). The ideal Elite Eight matchups are the same as last night. However, I did move UConn up to the 3 line, dropping Stanford to the 4. Any changes on lines 5 through 12 are the result of this flip.

Substitution: Brutus in for Otto

The "Boeheim" burst for the Orange this afternoon. But, Syracuse's loss didn't put victors Villanova in. Ohio State was the next team in the queue last night, so the Buckeyes move into the bracket tonight. If the Wildcats beat (or are lose a close one to) Georgetown tomorrow at noon, Nova may bring the Big East's bid total back up to 8.

Mount St. Mary's is our new auto bid tonight, after they kept Sacred Heart from clinching their first tournament bid. The Mountaineers look destined for a Tuesday night date in Dayton.

In other games to watch tomorrow, Dayton can start to hope if they knock off Xavier tomorrow in the A-10. St. Joe's needs to beat Richmond to stay alive, and UMass will drop out if they lose to the URI-Charlotte winner. Two seed Temple is just on the fringe of the at-large discussion, but if they keep winning that will change. Big Five rival LaSalle is the Owls' quarterfinal opponent.

It's a big day in the Pac 10. Arizona State and Oregon are probably fighting for one berth. The Sun Devils play USC and the Ducks get Washington State. Whoever gets furthest should get in. In the SEC, Florida needs to beat Alabama and Ole Miss must take out Georgia to keep their slim hopes alive. In the ACC, Miami is pretty safe, but cannot afford a loss to 12 seed NC State. Maryland cannot afford a loss to BC in the night session.

Next update late tomorrow night.

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 4
West Coast - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Colonial - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

New This Bracket
Mount Saint Mary's (auto)
Ohio State

Out of the Bracket
Sacred Heart (auto)
Syracuse

Last Four In

Illinois State
Arizona State
Ohio State
Virginia Commonwealth

Last Four Out
Florida
Oregon
Villanova
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
UAB
Maryland
New Mexico
Syracuse

Also Considered
Dayton
Mississippi
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

 

Rapidly Shrinking Bubble

At the top of tonight's bracket (seed list), there are only slight changes in the ideal Elite Eight matchups: North Carolina and Georgetown (East), UCLA and Kansas (West), Tennessee and Duke (Midwest), and Memphis and Texas (South).

Louisville,
Stanford, Wisconsin, and Xavier all stand pat on the 3 line. Indiana jumps back up to the 4 line, replacing Vanderbilt. UConn, Notre Dame, and Purdue join them.

Blue Raiders and Toreros, Oh My!

The at-large pool was two spots smaller heading into tomorrow night. As predicted here a few weeks ago, San Diego won the West Coast title at home. This pretty much ensures that the West Coast Conference will have three bids instead of two. On that same page, you'll also see that I predicted that South Alabama would fall victim to the Sun Belt hosting curse. So they naturally lost to Middle Tennessee in the semifinals. Since the Jags are in pretty good shape to get an at-large, that means the Sun Belt should get two for the first time in that conference's modern era. Butler did manage to win the Horizon League tonight, keeping an at-large out there.

UAB and New Mexico are the two unlucky teams who fall out because of these results. Even though, Illinois State and Arizona State were slightly below them on the S-curve on Sunday, the Blazers and Lobos profiles don't have quite the punch as the Sun Devils'. The Redbirds are very much on the bubble, however, since they have no more games to play and the weakest profile of the teams currently in my bracket. I also swapped Virginia Commonwealth and Virginia Tech. It's getting to the time in the season where you have to think of the wacky things the committee may do when selecting teams. So, if the season ended today, they'd probably reward a team who won an extremely competitive CAA by three games whose non-conference slate was also challenging over a mediocre ACC team whose non-conference slate wasn't that great.

Mind you, this may all change in a big way tomorrow and Thursday. Syracuse is still in, but they won't be if they can't beat Villanova tomorrow at noon. Arizona has that game with RPI-killer Oregon State in the Pac-10 opening round tomorrow. They get Stanford Thursday if they win.

Next update late tomorrow night.

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
ACC - 4
Big 10 - 4
West Coast - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Colonial - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Mountain West - 2

New This Bracket
Sacred Heart (auto)
San Diego (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth
Western Kentucky (auto)

Out of the Bracket
UAB
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
Wagner (auto)

Last Four In

Syracuse
Virginia Commonwealth
Arizona State
Illinois State

Last Four Out
Florida
Ohio State
Oregon
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
UAB
Maryland
New Mexico
Villanova

Also Considered
Dayton
Mississippi
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

 

One Week Left...

There are six newcomers in tonight's bracket (seed list), one new at-large (Syracuse, replacing Maryland) and five new auto bid holders, one of whom (Winthrop) has a conference tournament title and is in for sure.

The Top Spot is Solid for Now

North Carolina's win at Cameron Indoor Saturday means they're the overall number one seed for the immediate future. Only a loss in the ACC tournament would allow Memphis to pass the Tar Heels at this point. UCLA and Tennessee stay on the top line. Georgetown's regular season title in the tougher Big East means the Hoyas pass Wisconsin on my S-curve, dropping the Badgers back to the 3 line.

Here are tonight's
ideal Elite Eight matchups: North Carolina and Georgetown (East), UCLA and Kansas (West), Tennessee and Texas (Midwest), and Memphis and Duke (South).

Louisville, Xavier, and Stanford remain on the three line. I was tempted to move the Cardinal down after they were swept by the LA schools, but didn't think anyone on the 4 line was quite worthy of the move up. Indiana's OT loss to Penn State and UConn's 45-point win over Cincinnati mean the Huskies and Hoosiers swap seed lines again.. Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, and Purdue remain as protected seeds.

Bubble Mayhem

Kentucky furthered their at-large status today by defeating my alma mater. The Gators need a deep run in the SEC tournament to make it at this point. Syracuse is the sole new at-large tonight. The Orange replace Maryland, who in true Terrapin fashion, lost a game they really needed to win at UVa. The Terps are faced with a difficult road in the ACC tournament, facing NC State in round 1, followed by Clemson in the quarterfinals if they beat the Wolfpack. (And we all know what happened the last time those two met.) The Orange meanwhile, have a favorable draw in the Big East tournament. Villanova in the 8/9 game in that magical noon timeslot on Wednesday, with a quarterfinal matchup against Georgetown on the line.

The Pac 10 tournament will definitely be one to watch. Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon are fighting for two spots. The Wildcats face RPI killer Oregon State in round one. Get past that and it's Stanford in the quarterfinals. Not the most ideal map for a team that's 8-10 in the conference. The Sun Devils and Ducks are both 9-9. ASU faces USC in a quarterfinal, with the teams splitting 14-point home wins. Oregon faces Wazzu, who swept them this season. Slightly off topic, someone needs to tell Nike and the Oregon athletic department that putting names on the back of a jersey only works when the color of the name is a different shade than the color of the jersey.

My next update will be Tuesday, to account for the 4 conference championship games on Monday night. I'll then provide daily updates until Selection Sunday.

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
ACC - 5
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 4
Mountain West - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Bracket
George Mason (auto)
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Syracuse
Utah State (auto)
Wagner (auto)
Winthrop (auto)

Out of the Bracket
Boise State (auto)
Lamar (auto)
Maryland
UNC Asheville (auto)
Robert Morris (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth (auto)

Last Four In

Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Arizona State
Illinois State

Last Four Out
Maryland
Ohio State
Oregon
Virginia Commonwealth

Next Four Out
Dayton
Florida
Saint Joseph's
Villanova

Also Considered
Houston
Mississippi
Temple
Western Kentucky

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Friday, March 07, 2008

 

Close to the Homestretch

Today's bracket (seed list) is relatively stable compared to Monday's. However, with some big games among the Bubble Boys and the first conference tournaments wrapping up over the weekend, there could be some jostling in the first of my homestretch daily updates on Sunday. Remember, you can now compare my projection with many, many others at The Bracket Project.

A Newcomer in the Top 8

Xavier's loss at St. Joe's Thursday night cost them their spot on the 2 line. (Not that Drew Lavender's bum ankle helps their cause.) Wisconsin has a share of the Big Ten title at the moment and that's good enough to move them up to replace the Musketeers. The winner of tomorrow's Louisville-Georgetown Big East title tilt has a good chance to crash the party on Sunday, however. This change leads to the following ideal Elite Eight matchups now North Carolina and Wisconsin (East), UCLA and Kansas (West), Tennessee and Duke (Midwest), and Memphis and Texas (South).

Louisville, Georgetown, and Stanford remain on the three line. The Cardinal would've moved back up to the 2 line had they not lost to UCLA on a highly questionable foul call that forced overtime. Indiana replaces UConn on the 4 line after the Huskies lost to Providence last night (completing an unexpected season sweep for the struggling Friars). Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, and Purdue join the Hoosiers as 4 seeds.

Look Who's Back

There's only one new at-large in the bracket today, and that's Kentucky. The Wildcats replace Florida, pretty much because they're winning games and the Gators aren't. This may change on Sunday after the two meet at Rupp. But there could be further shifts, Syracuse hosts Marquette Saturday and Ohio State takes on an unpredictable Michigan State team on Sunday. Wins for the Orange and Buckeyes in these games would help them considerably. Virginia Tech and Maryland are barely hanging on at the moment, and both teams face stern road tests to close out the ACC regular season. The Hokies visit Clemson and the Terps go to Virginia, who, despite their last place standing, will want to wreck their rival's tourney hopes. Also, pay special attention to two Pac 10 games. Oregon hosts Arizona, with the Ducks needing a win to boost their hopes. Arizona State is also barely hanging on at the moment, and if they give Oregon State their first conference win of the year, it could be fatal to the Sun Devils' hopes.


Conference Breakdown

Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 4
Mountain West - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Bracket
Kentucky
UC Santa Barbara (auto)

Out of the Bracket
Florida
Cal State-Northridge (auto)

Last Four In

Kentucky
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Arizona State

Last Four Out
Florida
Ohio State
St. Joseph's
Syracuse

Next Four Out
Oregon
Southern Illinois
Villanova
Western Kentucky

Also Considered
Creighton
Dayton
George Mason
Houston
Mississippi
Rhode Island
Stephen F. Austin
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Monday, March 03, 2008

 

Won't Someone Just Win Some Games Already?!?!?!

That is my question for the majority of teams that span occupy this year's massive bubble. Today's bracket includes two at-large teams on the 13 line, for crying out loud. That's a sure sign that no one is seizing the initiative and attempting to earn their way into the field.

I was tempted to just put the names of 16 bubble teams in a hat and draw four out to come up with today's Last Four In. However, I saw this morning that my bracket is now included in The Bracket Project's comparison of internet projections. So, I figured I'd better take things even a bit more seriously than usual.

UNC Tops Overall, UCLA Back in the Top 4

North Carolina moves back to the overall number one seed spot, and the coveted Raleigh/Charlotte path to the Final Four. While Tennessee's loss to Vanderbilt on Tuesday didn't lead me to drop them Saturday, I did drop them today after they struggled at Kentucky. Memphis remains number two overall and the top seed in the South. UCLA jumps to the top spot in the West after Texas's loss at Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon.

With this in mind, here are the ideal Elite Eight matchups now North Carolina and Xavier in the East, UCLA and Kansas in the West, Tennessee and Duke in the Midwest, and Memphis and Texas in the South.

The three seeds, Louisville, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Stanford, are remarkably steady at the moment. Any one of the three could pass Xavier and end up on the two line between now and Selection Sunday, however. Purdue rejoins the four line, replacing Indiana after the Hoosiers were blown out at Michigan State on Sunday. Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, and Connecticut remain as protected seeds at the moment. The Irish and Huskies have the most potential to move up, thanks to the presence of two Big East teams on the three line.

I Didn't Mean to Install a Revolving Door

My task today would've been far easier and far more personally satisfying had
Syracuse buried Pittsburgh like cheese on Saturday afternoon. Instead, the Panthers hung in there and stole one from the Orange. That means SU left the bracket mere hours after they arrived. Ohio State is gone too thanks to a loss at Minnesota. So, I've spent most of my day thinking about who would replace them in the bracket and whether to dump teams like my alma mater, the less than mighty Florida Gators, Maryland, Arizona State, and Texas A&M. In the end, those four stay (although their seeds all took significant hits). Illinois State gets in by virtue of their win over Southern Illinois on Saturday. Don't write the Salukis off yet, since these two teams could meet in a Missouri Valley Semifinal on Saturday in St. Louis. I also caved in and put in New Mexico. I seriously considered Kentucky, but their non-conference struggles still weigh heavily on my mind. Add in the Patrick Patterson injury and 3-7 road/neutral record, and the Wildcats still have work to do. The UF-UK game Sunday afternoon could be an elimination game.

Regular Season Champions

Congratulations go out to the Cornell Big Red, who clinched the Ivy League championship on Saturday night, and are therefore the first team in the field.

Here are the teams that have clinched their conference's regular season titles as of right now. They will remain in the bracket until they either win their league tournament or lose.

America East - Maryland-Baltimore County (hosts the final if they make it)
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (conference tourney down the street at Lipscomb)
Atlantic 10 - Xavier
Big Sky - Portland State (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Big South - UNC Asheville (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Colonial - Virginia Commonwealth (conference tourney on their former home court)
Conference USA - Memphis (hosts conference tourney)
Horizon - Butler (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Metro Atlantic - Siena (hosts conference tourney)
Mid-Eastern - Morgan State
Missouri Valley - Drake (beware the Arch Madness Curse)
Northeast - Robert Morris (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay
Patriot - American (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Southern - Davidson (20-0 in the league, an incredible feat)
Summit - Oral Roberts (conference tournament in Tulsa, but not on their home court)
Sun Belt - South Alabama (trying to buck the trend of bad luck for the host school)

Speaking of the postseason, I will be attending American's Pat League quarterfinal with Holy Cross on Wednesday night.

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 4
Mountain West - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Bracket
Illinois State
New Mexico
UNC Asheville

Out of the Bracket
Ohio State
Syracuse
Winthrop

Last Four In

Illinois State
Maryland
Florida
New Mexico

Last Four Out
Kentucky
Ohio State
Syracuse
Villanova

Next Four Out
Oregon
St. Joseph's
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky

Also Considered
Creighton
Dayton
Florida State
George Mason
Houston
Mississippi
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
Stephen F. Austin
Wake Forest
Wright State

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

 

RPI: Not the Be All End All of Bracketology

R, P, and I. Probably the three letters that are thrown around the most during the first half of the month of March in the United States. While everyone is familiar with the term RPI, not everyone knows what it is and how much influence it actually has in the selection process for the NCAA men's basketball tournament. In this post, I'm going to show you how using the RPI alone would give the committee an inaccurate picture of the national landscape and would result in a radically different tournament field than a more balanced selection process would ensure. To do this, I'm going to compare the bracket I released Saturday morning with one based solely on the RPI after Thursday night's games, which was my cutoff point for the Friday night preparation of my bracket.

What is the RPI?

RPI stands for Ratings Percentage Index, a formula used by the NCAA to rate teams in various sports as a tool in the selection and seeding process for national championships. By nature, the RPI is not a basketball-specific formula, but since the actual formula used in each sport is secret, it can be assumed that each sport's committee makes tweaks to it to match their sport's particular characteristics. For example, since home court advantage is particularly important in basketball, it's pretty well known that there is a penalty built into the basketball RPI for losing at home.

The NCAA releases the RPI on Mondays during the season, but doesn't provide daily updates. For daily updates, there are a few sites that try to replicate the formula. Jerry Palm's College RPI, ESPN.com, and Kyle Whelliston's Basketball State require a subscription for at least some of their data. I use Ken Pomeroy's RPI listing and other statistics while putting my bracket together. He summarizes the basic RPI formula in this way:

"1/4*(Winning Percentage) + 1/2*(Opponents' Average Winning Percentage) + 1/4*(Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage)."

He offers a more detailed explanation here.


The RPI does a fair job of measuring a team's performance and even their strength of schedule. However, this doesn't mean it can't be exploited. When building a non-conference schedule a school can schedule games that they should easily win (boosting the 25% winning percentage portion of the formula) against teams who should play well in weaker conferences (boosting the 50% opponents' winning percentage portion while not causing too much harm to the 25% opponents' opponents' portion).

A high RPI rating can tell you if a team can win, it just can't quite tell you the types of teams that it's beating. The separate Strength of Schedule (SOS) rating does this, which is why, more often than not, you'll see a good sized disparity between a team's RPI and SOS.

The RPI formula also doesn't give easy access to two factors that are important in the selection process, recent performance (wins and losses in the last 12 games) and road and neutral performance. These are two factors that selection committee members must access and consider during the process.

The RPI Only Bracket

To create this bracket, I simply selected the 31 conference leaders based on record as my automatic qualifiers. Next, I took the top 34 teams in the RPI who weren't conference leaders to fill in the at-large spots. Since, 14 of the 31 conference champions were rated higher than #65 in the RPI, team #49 in the rankings, Florida, was the last team in.

In terms of seeding, I placed the teams in order from 1 to 65 in the S-curve. Tennessee (#1) was the top overall seed, and Morgan State (#133) and Alabama State (#235) were the two teams selected to play in the Opening Round game. I did have to make several adjustments to the actual bracket to meet bracketing principles (avoid conference matchups until at least the second round, avoiding regular season rematches, keeping teams within their natural regions when possible). For example, I swapped UCLA (#8) and Duke (#5) on the 2 line to keep them within their natural regions. I did the same with Kansas (#9) and Georgetown (#10) on the 3 line.

I did have to swap teams out of their natural seed lines in two instances to preserve bracket integrity. I swapped BYU, a true 6 seed, with Pittsburgh, a true 7, to move the Cougars to a Thursday-Saturday site for the first two weekends, as required. I also swapped VCU, a 12 seed, with Arkansas, an 11, to keep the Razorbacks out of Tennessee's region.

Bracket Differences

Here are some of the key differences between the two brackets, starting with who's in and who's out.

In the RPI Bracket, Out of the Full Projection
Dayton (10 seed)
Illinois State (10 seed)
Mississippi (12 seed)
Southern Illinois (10 seed)
Stephen F. Austin (12 seed)

In the Full Projection, Out of the RPI Bracket
UAB (13 seed)
Arizona State (12 seed)
Maryland (10 seed)
Syracuse (12 seed)
Virginia Tech (13 seed)

As you can see, only using the RPI to project the field brings in several teams who's recent performances have them only on the periphery of the at-large conversation (Dayton and Mississippi), don't have a great strength of schedule (Illinois State and Stephen F. Austin), and were on the verge of making it in heading into the weekend (Southern Illinois). In contrast, five teams, four of which are from major conferences, that have fairly good cases (well, for this year anyway) are left out.

These changes result in changes to the number of bids for each conference.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 7 in RPI bracket (8 in full projection)
Big 12 - 6 (6 in full)
SEC - 6 (5 in full)
Big 10 - 5 (5 in full)
Pac 10 - 5 (6 in full)
ACC - 4 (6 in full)
Atlantic 10 - 3 (2 in full)
Missouri Valley - 3 (1 in full)
Mountain West - 2 (2 in full)
Southland - 2 (1 in full)
West Coast - 2 (2 in full)

Conference USA - 1 (2 in full)


Of course, this year it's hard to argue that the number of bids for these conferences will be far off from these totals (well, except for the Southland perhaps).

Last Four In

Florida
Ohio State
Mississippi
Stephen F. Austin

Last Four Out
Syracuse
Creighton
Western Kentucky
UAB

Next Four Out
St. Joseph's
Kentucky
New Mexico
Ohio

These categories are all based on the RPI. The Last Four In are teams rated 46-49; the Last Four Out 50, 52, 53, and 54 (51 rated Davidson was an auto bid); and the Next Four Out 55-58.

Most starkly, the RPI led to quite a bit of shuffling in the seeding. This is where teams' performance in their last 12 games and in road and neutral contests would've had the most impact.

Seeding Winners
Vanderbilt - 2 in RPI bracket/4 in full bracket
Michigan State - 4/6
Marquette - 4/5
Drake - 4/5
Butler - 5/6
Arizona - 6/9
Pittsburgh - 6 (true 7)/8
Clemson - 6/7
Kent State - 7/10
Miami - 7/8
UNLV - 8/9
South Alabama - 8/9
Oklahoma - 8/11
West Virginia - 9/10
Massachusetts - 10/11
VCU - 11 (true 12)/12
Belmont - 14/15
Austin Peay - 15/16
Portland State - 15/16


Seeding Losers
Kansas - 3 in RPI bracket/2 in full bracket
Stanford - 6/3
Indiana - 5/4
Notre Dame - 5/4
Washington State - 6/5
Purdue - 7/5
BYU - 7 (true 6)/6
St. Mary's - 8/7
Gonzaga - 9/6
Baylor - 9/8
Southern California - 9/7
Kansas State - 11/7
Mississippi State - 11/8
Texas A&M - 11/9
Arkansas - 12 (true 11)/11
Davidson -13/11
Florida - 13/10
Winthrop - 16/15
Robert Morris - 16/14

I'll be back with a full projection tomorrow evening. There will definitely be some changes after the weekend's action. Congratulations to Cornell, who's the first team in. A whole slew of teams sewed up their conference regular season titles yesterday, so they'll be included in the bracket until they either lose in their conference tourneys or claim the title.

E-mail me with comments or questions.

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