Monday, February 25, 2008
A Weekend of Changes
After the weekend's action, the top 16 in today's bracket are the same. There has been a bit of shuffling on the top two lines, however.
Change at the Top
Tennessee defeated Memphis in an entertaining, if not slightly sloppy game. The Vols now have the top overall spot, with the Tigers falling to second. Tennessee will go to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt tomorrow night, so it's possible their stay at the top will be a short one. North Carolina and Texas are new one seeds today, passing conference rivals. Duke and Kansas now find themselves on the two line, where UCLA is the lone holdover from Saturday. Xavier moves up from the three line.
The Musketeers' gain is Stanford's loss. The Cardinal are now a three seed, where they join holdovers Wisconsin and Louisville. Georgetown moves up from the four line, while Connecticut drops down after losing at newcomer Villanova Saturday. Indiana, Purdue, and Notre Dame stay as protected seeds in this bracket.
BracketBuster Recap
This weekend's BracketBuster games mean there's only one new team filling an auto bid today. Robert Morris easily defeated Wagner Saturday to take the lead in the Northeast Conference (as predicted here a few weeks ago). The Colonials are in the driver's seat to host the conference final at home. However, several teams' BracketBuster performances impacted their seedings today. Drake won at Hinkle Fieldhouse, meaning the Des Moines Bulldogs are now seeded ahead of Butler. This should remain the case the rest of the way. St. Mary's drops a line after losing to Kent State at home. The Golden Flashes, meanwhile, are on the 12-line. This means they have a good chance at getting an at-large should something happen in the always wild MAC tournament. Davidson's big win over Winthrop also gives the Wildcats some at-large insurance. Siena hammered Boise State on the Broncos' home court, meaning the WAC leaders drop down to the 15 line. (It's hard to believe that the WAC, usually a multi-bid league, will not only get just one team in this year, but that their entrant will be seeded below the 12 line.) Outside of the teams currently in the bracket, Southern Illinois destroyed Nevada in Carbondale. The Salukis are starting to pull things together just in time for Arch Madness. Remember, they were the first team to beat Drake in the league.
Slight Shifts on the Bubble
St. Joseph's and Villanova are the only two newcomers to the at-large group today. The Hawks beat Rhode Island Sunday to both move into sole possession of second in the Atlantic 10 and knock the Rams out of today's bracket. The Wildcats replace Syracuse. The Orange didn't get the split they needed at Louisville and Notre Dame, while Nova is winning again. The win over UConn was good, but their demolition of West Virginia on Wednesday night was downright shocking. Wake Forest stays in, despite the loss to North Carolina last night. Finally, Ohio State is a rare at-large 13 seed tonight. Kent State and Davidson both passed them on the S-curve. The Buckeyes wins over Syracuse and Florida are literally the only things keeping them in at the moment.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Robert Morris (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Villanova
Out of the Bracket
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Wagner (auto)
Last Four In
Florida
Maryland
Ohio State
Wake Forest
Last Four Out
UAB
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Next Four Out
California
Dayton
Illinois State
Virginia Tech
Also Considered
George Mason
Houston
Mississippi
Oregon
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
E-mail me with comments or questions.
Change at the Top
Tennessee defeated Memphis in an entertaining, if not slightly sloppy game. The Vols now have the top overall spot, with the Tigers falling to second. Tennessee will go to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt tomorrow night, so it's possible their stay at the top will be a short one. North Carolina and Texas are new one seeds today, passing conference rivals. Duke and Kansas now find themselves on the two line, where UCLA is the lone holdover from Saturday. Xavier moves up from the three line.
The Musketeers' gain is Stanford's loss. The Cardinal are now a three seed, where they join holdovers Wisconsin and Louisville. Georgetown moves up from the four line, while Connecticut drops down after losing at newcomer Villanova Saturday. Indiana, Purdue, and Notre Dame stay as protected seeds in this bracket.
BracketBuster Recap
This weekend's BracketBuster games mean there's only one new team filling an auto bid today. Robert Morris easily defeated Wagner Saturday to take the lead in the Northeast Conference (as predicted here a few weeks ago). The Colonials are in the driver's seat to host the conference final at home. However, several teams' BracketBuster performances impacted their seedings today. Drake won at Hinkle Fieldhouse, meaning the Des Moines Bulldogs are now seeded ahead of Butler. This should remain the case the rest of the way. St. Mary's drops a line after losing to Kent State at home. The Golden Flashes, meanwhile, are on the 12-line. This means they have a good chance at getting an at-large should something happen in the always wild MAC tournament. Davidson's big win over Winthrop also gives the Wildcats some at-large insurance. Siena hammered Boise State on the Broncos' home court, meaning the WAC leaders drop down to the 15 line. (It's hard to believe that the WAC, usually a multi-bid league, will not only get just one team in this year, but that their entrant will be seeded below the 12 line.) Outside of the teams currently in the bracket, Southern Illinois destroyed Nevada in Carbondale. The Salukis are starting to pull things together just in time for Arch Madness. Remember, they were the first team to beat Drake in the league.
Slight Shifts on the Bubble
St. Joseph's and Villanova are the only two newcomers to the at-large group today. The Hawks beat Rhode Island Sunday to both move into sole possession of second in the Atlantic 10 and knock the Rams out of today's bracket. The Wildcats replace Syracuse. The Orange didn't get the split they needed at Louisville and Notre Dame, while Nova is winning again. The win over UConn was good, but their demolition of West Virginia on Wednesday night was downright shocking. Wake Forest stays in, despite the loss to North Carolina last night. Finally, Ohio State is a rare at-large 13 seed tonight. Kent State and Davidson both passed them on the S-curve. The Buckeyes wins over Syracuse and Florida are literally the only things keeping them in at the moment.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Robert Morris (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Villanova
Out of the Bracket
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Wagner (auto)
Last Four In
Florida
Maryland
Ohio State
Wake Forest
Last Four Out
UAB
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Next Four Out
California
Dayton
Illinois State
Virginia Tech
Also Considered
George Mason
Houston
Mississippi
Oregon
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
E-mail me with comments or questions.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Breaking Down the Bubble
The bubble this year is a mess, so I wanted to give you a look at where we stand with three weeks to go from Selection Sunday. First, I'm going to break down who's in and who's on the bubble. Then, I'll go through each of the bubble teams, rating their chances for actually making it into the field in three weeks time.
Let's start by taking a look at the multi-bid leagues. I've labeled teams that are locks as IN. Teams that are very close are Probable. Your typical bubble teams are Questionable. The few fringe teams that remain are Doubtful.
Multi-Bid Leagues (7)
Atlantic Coast
IN: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson
Probable: None
Questionable: Miami, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Probable: West Virginia
Questionable: Syracuse, Villanova
Doubtful: Seton Hall
Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Probable: None
Questionable: Ohio State
Big 12
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Probable: None
Questionable: Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
Pac 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern California
Probable: Arizona
Questionable: Arizona State, California
Doubtful: Oregon
SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Probable: Mississippi State
Questionable: Arkansas, Florida
Doubtful: Mississippi, Kentucky
West Coast
IN: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Could get a third bid as San Diego is a game back of these two and hosts the conference tournament.
Potential for Multiple Bids in Order of Likelihood for the Conference (10 - current leaders in parentheses)
Now let's take a look at the leagues that could snag more than one bid. The same system (IN, Probable, Questionable, and Doubtful) applies, but I'm only describing a team's at-large chances. They can always take care of business and win their tournament.
Atlantic Ten (Xavier)
IN: Xavier
Questionable: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Dayton, St. Joseph's
Mountain West (Brigham Young)
Probable: BYU
Questionable: UNLV, New Mexico
Conference USA (Memphis)
IN: Memphis
Questionable: UAB, Houston
Mid American (Kent State)
Questionable: Kent State
Missouri Valley (Drake)
IN: Drake
Doubtful: Illinois State
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Questionable: VCU
Doubtful: George Mason
Sun Belt (South Alabama)
Questionable: South Alabama
Doubtful: Western Kentucky
Horizon (Butler)
IN: Butler
Southern (Davidson)
Questionable: Davidson
Summit League (Oral Roberts)
Doubtful: Oral Roberts
One-bid Leagues (14 - current leaders in parentheses): America East (Maryland-Baltimore County), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Portland State), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (Cal State-Northridge), Ivy League (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Austin Peay), Patriot League (American), Southland (Lamar), Southwestern (Alabama State), Western Athletic (Boise State)
Breaking It All Down
Taking into account the one-bid leagues, the league leaders in the conferences that may get multiple bids, and the teams that fall under the IN or Probable categories across the board, 50 of the 65 teams are pretty much set at this stage. We currently have 26 teams who have chances of varying degrees at an at-large bid, and eight others (Davidson, George Mason, Illinois State, Kent State, Oral Roberts, South Alabama, VCU, and Western Kentucky) who have a case, but can make life easier on themselves by winning their conference tournaments. Keep in mind that conference tournament titles for teams like Western Kentucky, George Mason, and Illinois State could reduce the at-large pool further.
I'm going to examine these teams in two groups. First, I'll look at the eight teams from the one-bid leagues, then the bubble teams from the multi-bid leagues. All records and statistics are from Ken Pomeroy's RPI site and only account for games against Division I opponents through Saturday.
Davidson (20-6, Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): 61, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 157, Last 12 Games (L12) 12-0, Road-Neutral Record (RN) 10-4): Only a home date with Appalachian State and road trip to Georgia Southern separate the Wildcats from an unbeaten Southern Conference mark. They probably need to win the conference tournament to be safe, but if they don't, close losses to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, and NC State will keep them in the conversation. Thoroughly dominating Winthrop in their BracketBuster Friday night helped. As a 12-seed in the bracket, they're definitely in the at-large pool. VERDICT: At-large if necessary.
George Mason (19-9, RPI: 70, SOS: 157, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-8): The loss to Ohio in the BracketBuster was fatal to the Patriots at-large hopes. The early Dayton win isn't looking as good as it was, even though the Kansas State victory in Orlando has some value. Losing to East Carolina and Georgia State is unforgivable, especially considering that a run-in of William and Mary and at Northeastern won't provide much of a computer boost. VERDICT: Must win the CAA Tournament
Illinois State (18-8, RPI: 51, SOS: 94, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-7): The Redbirds have a BracketBuster game with Wright State tonight that will only slightly help them if they win it. A loss though would end any at-large hopes. Best wins are at Creighton and at home to SIU, the two teams who they play to end the regular season. Really needed to beat either Indiana or Kent State in November in the Chicago 'burbs for the resume.
VERDICT: Must win the MVC Tournament
Kent State (23-5, RPI: 30, SOS: 135, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): Outside of Drake, the Golden Flashes were th big winners in BracketBusters, winning in a very difficult gym against a highly-touted St. Mary's team. The win more than makes up for the loss (by 1) to Detroit to open the season. Wins over two other teams on this list, Mason and Illinois State put them ahead in the pecking order. Kent State closes the regular season against three teams they've beaten already (at Bowling Green, Miami, and at Akron). If they don't lose early in the MAC tournament, they should be safe.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the MAC semis
Oral Roberts (19-7, RPI: 58, SOS: 144, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-6): The loss to Creighton yesterday ended all at-large hopes for the Golden Eagles. IUPUI (81) is the best win, and they gave that back in Indianapolis. The Oklahoma State (100) win carries a little more catchet after the Cowboys beat Kansas yesterday, but not anywhere near enough.
VERDICT: Must win the Summit League tournament
South Alabama (20-5, RPI: 26, SOS: 110, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): The Jaguars defeated Western Kentucky Thursday to sweep the season series, and move far ahead of the Hilltoppers in the at-large pool. Best non-conference win is a home victory over Mississippi State (41), but their most impressive performance may have been taking Vandy to double OT at Memorial Gym. They also lost to a fading Ole Miss team by 3 on the road. USA hosts the conference tournament, which has been the kiss of death in the Sun Belt of late.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the Sun Belt final.
Virginia Commonwealth (21-6, RPI: 52, SOS: 151, L12: 10-2, RN: 10-5): The Rams got a big BracketBuster win at Akron. If Houston and Maryland keep winning, wins over those two teams will boost VCU's profile. They did lose to fellow bubble boys Miami and Arkansas in the San Juan tournament, which doesn't help them. The improvement in the CAA as a whole has boosted their computer numbers, but closing with UNC-Wilmington and at William and Mary leaves the Rams vulnerable to another stumble.
VERDICT: Must win the CAA tournament
Western Kentucky (20-6, RPI: 55, SOS: 145, L12: 11-1, RN: 8-5): The Toppers really needed a split with South Alabama to have any at-large chance. Their best win is Nebraska (101). Close losses to Gonzaga in Alaska and against Tennessee in Nashville will only go so far.
VERDICT: Must win the Sun Belt tournament
So, the three teams in this group who can feel the most confident about their chances are Davidson, Kent State, and South Alabama. Again, if they win their conference tournaments they'll free up an at-large spot for one of these major conference clubs.
Many times this year, you've heard me say that this year offers up anything from the most mediocre to the outright worst group of bubble teams in history. If you pay attention to most of these teams' records in their last 12 games and their road-neutral marks, you'll understand why.
Atlantic Coast
Maryland (17-11, RPI: 65, SOS: 161, L12: 7-5, RN: 4-6): After losses to Virginia Tech and Miami this week, the win at UNC is starting to fade from memory. Earlier losses to VCU, BC, Ohio, and American are still there to nag the Terps. The good news for Maryland is the homestretch, at Wake, Clemson, and at Virginia, features three winnable games, including one with a likely tourney team and another with a bubble dweller. At 7-6, the Terps still have a chance at a seed that will make it easier for them to make the ACC semifinals.
VERDICT: IN, but barely
Miami (18-7, RPI: 25, SOS: 34, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-6): What a difference a few days make, four straight wins, including home victories against Duke and Maryland have the Hurricanes in good shape. Miami also owns wins over VCU (in San Juan), Clemson, and at Mississippi State that will be benificial. The homestretch in the ACC isn't too terribly taxing either (at Clemson, Virginia, BC-despite an earlier road loss, and at FSU-despite an earlier home loss). They may also slip into a top-four seed in the ACC tournament.
VERDICT: IN, more securely than Maryland
Virginia Tech (16-11, RPI: 63, SOS: 48, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-9): The Hokies have a pulse after beating Maryland (to sweep the season series) and Georgia Tech (to split). Tech closes with BC and Wake at home, followed by a trip to Clemson. Three wins may not be enough here because of a lack of quality non-conference wins.
VERDICT: OUT
Wake Forest (16-8, RPI: 67, SOS: 95, L12: 7-5, RN: 2-7): The Deacons play at UNC tonight, looking to claim another win against a potential one seed. Home wins over Duke and BYU are the best spots on the resume. Close losses at Vandy and Charlotte are OK, but a big loss at Georgia isn't. The road-neutral record honestly leaves a lot to be desires. After the Heels, Wake hosts Maryland, goes to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and wraps things up against NC State. They really need three of four of these.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Atlantic 10
Dayton (17-9, RPI: 33, SOS: 39, L12: 4-8, RN: 4-6)
Massachusetts (18-9, RPI: 32, SOS: 28, L12: 7-5, RN: 8-6)
Rhode Island (20-8, RPI: 42, SOS: 100, L12: 6-6, RN: 9-5)
St. Joseph's (17-8, RPI: 54, SOS: 93, L12: 8-4, RN: 10-5)
Since the Atlantic 14 contenders (outside of Xavier) are doing a nice job of beating each other up, I'm going to skip the individual write-ups and tell you that the A14 will get three teams in. Xavier is a lock, and the two from this group of four who advance farthest in the conference tournament will also make the Big Dance.
VERDICT: Dayton and URI are running out of chances, so UMass and St. Joe's will be IN.
Big East
Seton Hall (16-11, RPI: 73, SOS: 44, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-7): I briefly had the Pirates in, but an overtime win at Rutgers and five straight losses kept them out of the conversation for awhile. A win over DePaul and four winnable games to end the season (at USF, at St. John's, Syracuse, and Rutgers) put them back. Finishing 4-0 may not be enough for them, however.
VERDICT: OUT
Syracuse (17-11, RPI: 46, SOS: 14, L12: 5-7, RN: 4-7): One of my two favorite bubble teams really needed a split against Louisville and Notre Dame, and lost both. Finishing with Pitt, at Seton Hall, and Marquette could result in quality wins. Emphasis there is on "could," since the Orange are running out of gas.
VERDICT: OUT, barring a miracle run in the Big East Tournament, and last I checked G-Mac was playing in Latvia.
Villanova (17-9, RPI: 49, SOS: 54, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-7): At one point, the Wildcats had dropped 6 of 7, including a game to Rutgers and a 22-point loss to St. Joe's. They've now won three straight after beating UConn Saturday. Best non-league win is George Mason in Orlando, though they should've beaten NC State the next night. Their next two, home against Marquette and at Louisville could give them a boost. They'll need it as they wrap up the regular season against USF and at Providence.
VERDICT: OUT
Big Ten
Ohio State (17-10, RPI: 48, SOS: 49, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-7): The Buckeyes two best wins are against bubble dwellers Syracuse (in New York) and Florida (at home). A win against Wisconsin would have been helpful, and now they need to not stumble at Minnesota (no easy task) and take two of three from Indiana (on the road), Purdue, and Michigan State (at home). They should be in the 4-5 game in the Big Ten tourney (probably against the Spartans), so a win there would also help them. Hoosiers and Spartans are ripe for the picking right now.
VERDICT: IN
Big 12
Baylor (17-8, RPI: 37, SOS: 32, L12: 6-6, RN: 7-5): The Bears withstood a record-breaking night by Michael Beasley to get a big win against Kansas State last night. The win over Notre Dame in the Virgin Islands is looking very good at the moment. And there's no shame in close losses to Washington State and Arkansas. At Colorado, Missouri, A&M, and at Texas Tech should result in at least two wins, which would be .500 in the Big 12. This year that should be enough.
VERDICT: IN
Oklahoma (18-9, RPI: 28, SOS: 6, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-6): The Sooners have been a resilient bunch this year with injuries to Blake Griffin and Longar Longar hampering them at times. No shame in losing at Texas, and wins could be plentiful down the stretch (at Nebraska, even if they are resurgent, home to A&M, at Oklahoma State, and home to Missouri).
VERDICT: IN
Texas A&M (19-7, RPI: 44, SOS: 37, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-4): The Aggies are an enigma. They beat Texas in College Station for a marquee win, but were trucked by the Horns in Austin. Ohio State and Oral Roberts are the two best non-league wins. A&M wraps up with Texas Tech at home, road trips to OU and Baylor, and Kansas at home. Yikes. That's a group of motivated teams, but the Aggies should get a split and be safe.
VERDICT: IN
Conference USA
UAB (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Blazers have no bad losses, but their two best wins are over Kentucky (in Louisville) and Houston (at home). While those victories should put UAB ahead of either of those teams and the close loss to Memphis is helpful, this is a team that has a lot of work to do. They wrap up at UTEP, home to Tulane and Tulsa, and at Memphis for a rematch. If they go 3-1 there, they should get the 2 seed in the conference tournament. Reaching the final may be enough.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Houston (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Cougars had many opportunities to keep themselves off the bubble. A win against Kentucky doesn't go as far as it used to, and games dropped against UMass, VCU, UAB, and Arizona would all help right about now. Southern Miss, at East Carolina, UCF, and at UTEP are not games that will help the RPI rise much.
VERDICT: OUT
Mountain West
UNLV (19-6, RPI: 34, SOS: 82, L12: 9-3, RN: 6-4): The Rebels host the Mountain West tournament, so they'll probably end up with the auto bid and consign BYU to the at-large pool (especially when you consider UNLV won the meeting in Las Vegas by 29). However, if that doesn't happen, it would be hard to leave out the second place team in the MWC, which typically gets two teams in. UNLV's best wins are Nevada, BYU, and New Mexico, all at home. The homestretch includes home games with San Diego State, TCU, and Utah, and a road game with New Mexico that may be an elimination game. In the end, I think they're in as the auto bid.
VERDICT: IN
New Mexico (22-6, RPI: 43, SOS: 150, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-5): 22 wins and a decent RPI would typically mean the Lobos would be in good shape to get in. The non-conference slate was soft, however (including a rare home-and-home with Hawai'i). They don't yet own a win over either BYU or UNLV, but they get them both at home on consecutive Tuesday nights. A road trip against Colorado State to end the year won't help the computer numbers at all.
VERDICT: OUT
Pac 10
Arizona State (17-9, RPI: 71, SOS: 78, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-6): The Sun Devils split with the Washington schools this week. Sweeping Arizona and beating Xavier will get the committee's attention, but more importantly, ASU doesn't have any really bad losses: Nebraska's getting better and Illinois was early. The lack of consistency is worrisome, however. A homestand with the LA schools and a road trip to the Oregon schools end the regular season. ASU should earn a split in both, but could sweep UO and OSU.
VERDICT: IN
California (15-9, RPI: 78, SOS: 59, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-3): A win at Stanford tonight would be a big boost. Most of the Bears' marquee wins have been in the league (USC, at Washington State, at Arizona State), and there's little punch in the non-league schedule (Missouri, Nevada, and San Diego State are the three best wins). However, the Bears have no bad losses at all. A closing stretch of the Washington schools at home and the LA schools away is crucial. A 2-2 finish there would put them at 9-9 or 8-10 (depending on the Stanford result tonight). This year, that could be enough. Steal another game from Wazzu and it's a whole new ballgame.
VERDICT: IN
Oregon (15-12, RPI: 57, SOS: 9, L12: 4-8, RN: 5-9): The Ducks currently sit at 6-9 in the Pac 10, but should move to 7-9 after playing at Oregon State next Sunday. UO wraps up with the Arizona schools at home. They'd need a sweep to get to 9-9 in the league. I don't see that happening with the way they've been playing.
VERDICT: OUT
SEC
Arkansas (18-8, RPI: 38, SOS: 45, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-7): The Razorbacks dropped a close one to Kentucky on Saturday, and finish at Alabama, home to Vandy, at Ole Miss, and home to Auburn. They should at least go 2 and 2 in those four. Though wins over Vandy and Ole Miss would make an Arkansas appearance a certainty. 9-7 in the SEC (even in the weaker half) with wins over VCU, Baylor, Florida, Miss. State, and Ole Miss is more than most bubble teams will have.
VERDICT: IN
Florida (20-7, RPI: 59, SOS: 113, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-5): The Gators non-conference schedule hasn't helped them at all, neither does losing to LSU, FSU, or fellow bubble boys Ohio State. However, UF can get a bump at the end of the year. Mississippi State and Tennessee both come to Gainesville, sandwiched between a dangerous road trip to Georgia and another road game at Kentucky. The Gators should do just enough to make it in.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Kentucky (15-10, RPI: 64, SOS: 20, L12: 9-3, RN: 3-6): Look who's here. Look who has a really good shot to finish 12-4 or 11-5 in the SEC. The Wildcats get Ole Miss and Florida at home, with trips to Knoxville and Columbia in between. In the end, I think 11-5 is likely, but with the non-conference stumbles, that won't be enough.
VERDICT: OUT
Mississippi (18-8, RPI: 45, SOS: 71, L12: 5-7, RN: 6-6): It's fitting that the Rebels best non-league win was against Clemson, since they greatly resemble the 2006 or 2007 Tigers. At Kentucky, Bama and Arkansas at home, and at Georgia isn't the way to get to 8-8 in the league, which is what they need to justify a place in the tourney. They'd have to win all four. I don't see that happening.
VERDICT: OUT
To recap, these 12 teams should end up with the last at-large bids.
Arkansas
Arizona State
Baylor
California
Maryland
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Saint Joseph's
Texas A&M
These 3 should also get in; however, they will fall off the board in this order should something happen to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama during Championship Week.
UAB
Florida
Wake Forest
New bracket tomorrow night.
Let's start by taking a look at the multi-bid leagues. I've labeled teams that are locks as IN. Teams that are very close are Probable. Your typical bubble teams are Questionable. The few fringe teams that remain are Doubtful.
Multi-Bid Leagues (7)
Atlantic Coast
IN: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson
Probable: None
Questionable: Miami, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Probable: West Virginia
Questionable: Syracuse, Villanova
Doubtful: Seton Hall
Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Probable: None
Questionable: Ohio State
Big 12
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Probable: None
Questionable: Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
Pac 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern California
Probable: Arizona
Questionable: Arizona State, California
Doubtful: Oregon
SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Probable: Mississippi State
Questionable: Arkansas, Florida
Doubtful: Mississippi, Kentucky
West Coast
IN: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Could get a third bid as San Diego is a game back of these two and hosts the conference tournament.
Potential for Multiple Bids in Order of Likelihood for the Conference (10 - current leaders in parentheses)
Now let's take a look at the leagues that could snag more than one bid. The same system (IN, Probable, Questionable, and Doubtful) applies, but I'm only describing a team's at-large chances. They can always take care of business and win their tournament.
Atlantic Ten (Xavier)
IN: Xavier
Questionable: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Dayton, St. Joseph's
Mountain West (Brigham Young)
Probable: BYU
Questionable: UNLV, New Mexico
Conference USA (Memphis)
IN: Memphis
Questionable: UAB, Houston
Mid American (Kent State)
Questionable: Kent State
Missouri Valley (Drake)
IN: Drake
Doubtful: Illinois State
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Questionable: VCU
Doubtful: George Mason
Sun Belt (South Alabama)
Questionable: South Alabama
Doubtful: Western Kentucky
Horizon (Butler)
IN: Butler
Southern (Davidson)
Questionable: Davidson
Summit League (Oral Roberts)
Doubtful: Oral Roberts
One-bid Leagues (14 - current leaders in parentheses): America East (Maryland-Baltimore County), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Portland State), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (Cal State-Northridge), Ivy League (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Austin Peay), Patriot League (American), Southland (Lamar), Southwestern (Alabama State), Western Athletic (Boise State)
Breaking It All Down
Taking into account the one-bid leagues, the league leaders in the conferences that may get multiple bids, and the teams that fall under the IN or Probable categories across the board, 50 of the 65 teams are pretty much set at this stage. We currently have 26 teams who have chances of varying degrees at an at-large bid, and eight others (Davidson, George Mason, Illinois State, Kent State, Oral Roberts, South Alabama, VCU, and Western Kentucky) who have a case, but can make life easier on themselves by winning their conference tournaments. Keep in mind that conference tournament titles for teams like Western Kentucky, George Mason, and Illinois State could reduce the at-large pool further.
I'm going to examine these teams in two groups. First, I'll look at the eight teams from the one-bid leagues, then the bubble teams from the multi-bid leagues. All records and statistics are from Ken Pomeroy's RPI site and only account for games against Division I opponents through Saturday.
Davidson (20-6, Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): 61, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 157, Last 12 Games (L12) 12-0, Road-Neutral Record (RN) 10-4): Only a home date with Appalachian State and road trip to Georgia Southern separate the Wildcats from an unbeaten Southern Conference mark. They probably need to win the conference tournament to be safe, but if they don't, close losses to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, and NC State will keep them in the conversation. Thoroughly dominating Winthrop in their BracketBuster Friday night helped. As a 12-seed in the bracket, they're definitely in the at-large pool. VERDICT: At-large if necessary.
George Mason (19-9, RPI: 70, SOS: 157, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-8): The loss to Ohio in the BracketBuster was fatal to the Patriots at-large hopes. The early Dayton win isn't looking as good as it was, even though the Kansas State victory in Orlando has some value. Losing to East Carolina and Georgia State is unforgivable, especially considering that a run-in of William and Mary and at Northeastern won't provide much of a computer boost. VERDICT: Must win the CAA Tournament
Illinois State (18-8, RPI: 51, SOS: 94, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-7): The Redbirds have a BracketBuster game with Wright State tonight that will only slightly help them if they win it. A loss though would end any at-large hopes. Best wins are at Creighton and at home to SIU, the two teams who they play to end the regular season. Really needed to beat either Indiana or Kent State in November in the Chicago 'burbs for the resume.
VERDICT: Must win the MVC Tournament
Kent State (23-5, RPI: 30, SOS: 135, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): Outside of Drake, the Golden Flashes were th big winners in BracketBusters, winning in a very difficult gym against a highly-touted St. Mary's team. The win more than makes up for the loss (by 1) to Detroit to open the season. Wins over two other teams on this list, Mason and Illinois State put them ahead in the pecking order. Kent State closes the regular season against three teams they've beaten already (at Bowling Green, Miami, and at Akron). If they don't lose early in the MAC tournament, they should be safe.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the MAC semis
Oral Roberts (19-7, RPI: 58, SOS: 144, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-6): The loss to Creighton yesterday ended all at-large hopes for the Golden Eagles. IUPUI (81) is the best win, and they gave that back in Indianapolis. The Oklahoma State (100) win carries a little more catchet after the Cowboys beat Kansas yesterday, but not anywhere near enough.
VERDICT: Must win the Summit League tournament
South Alabama (20-5, RPI: 26, SOS: 110, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): The Jaguars defeated Western Kentucky Thursday to sweep the season series, and move far ahead of the Hilltoppers in the at-large pool. Best non-conference win is a home victory over Mississippi State (41), but their most impressive performance may have been taking Vandy to double OT at Memorial Gym. They also lost to a fading Ole Miss team by 3 on the road. USA hosts the conference tournament, which has been the kiss of death in the Sun Belt of late.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the Sun Belt final.
Virginia Commonwealth (21-6, RPI: 52, SOS: 151, L12: 10-2, RN: 10-5): The Rams got a big BracketBuster win at Akron. If Houston and Maryland keep winning, wins over those two teams will boost VCU's profile. They did lose to fellow bubble boys Miami and Arkansas in the San Juan tournament, which doesn't help them. The improvement in the CAA as a whole has boosted their computer numbers, but closing with UNC-Wilmington and at William and Mary leaves the Rams vulnerable to another stumble.
VERDICT: Must win the CAA tournament
Western Kentucky (20-6, RPI: 55, SOS: 145, L12: 11-1, RN: 8-5): The Toppers really needed a split with South Alabama to have any at-large chance. Their best win is Nebraska (101). Close losses to Gonzaga in Alaska and against Tennessee in Nashville will only go so far.
VERDICT: Must win the Sun Belt tournament
So, the three teams in this group who can feel the most confident about their chances are Davidson, Kent State, and South Alabama. Again, if they win their conference tournaments they'll free up an at-large spot for one of these major conference clubs.
Many times this year, you've heard me say that this year offers up anything from the most mediocre to the outright worst group of bubble teams in history. If you pay attention to most of these teams' records in their last 12 games and their road-neutral marks, you'll understand why.
Atlantic Coast
Maryland (17-11, RPI: 65, SOS: 161, L12: 7-5, RN: 4-6): After losses to Virginia Tech and Miami this week, the win at UNC is starting to fade from memory. Earlier losses to VCU, BC, Ohio, and American are still there to nag the Terps. The good news for Maryland is the homestretch, at Wake, Clemson, and at Virginia, features three winnable games, including one with a likely tourney team and another with a bubble dweller. At 7-6, the Terps still have a chance at a seed that will make it easier for them to make the ACC semifinals.
VERDICT: IN, but barely
Miami (18-7, RPI: 25, SOS: 34, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-6): What a difference a few days make, four straight wins, including home victories against Duke and Maryland have the Hurricanes in good shape. Miami also owns wins over VCU (in San Juan), Clemson, and at Mississippi State that will be benificial. The homestretch in the ACC isn't too terribly taxing either (at Clemson, Virginia, BC-despite an earlier road loss, and at FSU-despite an earlier home loss). They may also slip into a top-four seed in the ACC tournament.
VERDICT: IN, more securely than Maryland
Virginia Tech (16-11, RPI: 63, SOS: 48, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-9): The Hokies have a pulse after beating Maryland (to sweep the season series) and Georgia Tech (to split). Tech closes with BC and Wake at home, followed by a trip to Clemson. Three wins may not be enough here because of a lack of quality non-conference wins.
VERDICT: OUT
Wake Forest (16-8, RPI: 67, SOS: 95, L12: 7-5, RN: 2-7): The Deacons play at UNC tonight, looking to claim another win against a potential one seed. Home wins over Duke and BYU are the best spots on the resume. Close losses at Vandy and Charlotte are OK, but a big loss at Georgia isn't. The road-neutral record honestly leaves a lot to be desires. After the Heels, Wake hosts Maryland, goes to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and wraps things up against NC State. They really need three of four of these.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Atlantic 10
Dayton (17-9, RPI: 33, SOS: 39, L12: 4-8, RN: 4-6)
Massachusetts (18-9, RPI: 32, SOS: 28, L12: 7-5, RN: 8-6)
Rhode Island (20-8, RPI: 42, SOS: 100, L12: 6-6, RN: 9-5)
St. Joseph's (17-8, RPI: 54, SOS: 93, L12: 8-4, RN: 10-5)
Since the Atlantic 14 contenders (outside of Xavier) are doing a nice job of beating each other up, I'm going to skip the individual write-ups and tell you that the A14 will get three teams in. Xavier is a lock, and the two from this group of four who advance farthest in the conference tournament will also make the Big Dance.
VERDICT: Dayton and URI are running out of chances, so UMass and St. Joe's will be IN.
Big East
Seton Hall (16-11, RPI: 73, SOS: 44, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-7): I briefly had the Pirates in, but an overtime win at Rutgers and five straight losses kept them out of the conversation for awhile. A win over DePaul and four winnable games to end the season (at USF, at St. John's, Syracuse, and Rutgers) put them back. Finishing 4-0 may not be enough for them, however.
VERDICT: OUT
Syracuse (17-11, RPI: 46, SOS: 14, L12: 5-7, RN: 4-7): One of my two favorite bubble teams really needed a split against Louisville and Notre Dame, and lost both. Finishing with Pitt, at Seton Hall, and Marquette could result in quality wins. Emphasis there is on "could," since the Orange are running out of gas.
VERDICT: OUT, barring a miracle run in the Big East Tournament, and last I checked G-Mac was playing in Latvia.
Villanova (17-9, RPI: 49, SOS: 54, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-7): At one point, the Wildcats had dropped 6 of 7, including a game to Rutgers and a 22-point loss to St. Joe's. They've now won three straight after beating UConn Saturday. Best non-league win is George Mason in Orlando, though they should've beaten NC State the next night. Their next two, home against Marquette and at Louisville could give them a boost. They'll need it as they wrap up the regular season against USF and at Providence.
VERDICT: OUT
Big Ten
Ohio State (17-10, RPI: 48, SOS: 49, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-7): The Buckeyes two best wins are against bubble dwellers Syracuse (in New York) and Florida (at home). A win against Wisconsin would have been helpful, and now they need to not stumble at Minnesota (no easy task) and take two of three from Indiana (on the road), Purdue, and Michigan State (at home). They should be in the 4-5 game in the Big Ten tourney (probably against the Spartans), so a win there would also help them. Hoosiers and Spartans are ripe for the picking right now.
VERDICT: IN
Big 12
Baylor (17-8, RPI: 37, SOS: 32, L12: 6-6, RN: 7-5): The Bears withstood a record-breaking night by Michael Beasley to get a big win against Kansas State last night. The win over Notre Dame in the Virgin Islands is looking very good at the moment. And there's no shame in close losses to Washington State and Arkansas. At Colorado, Missouri, A&M, and at Texas Tech should result in at least two wins, which would be .500 in the Big 12. This year that should be enough.
VERDICT: IN
Oklahoma (18-9, RPI: 28, SOS: 6, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-6): The Sooners have been a resilient bunch this year with injuries to Blake Griffin and Longar Longar hampering them at times. No shame in losing at Texas, and wins could be plentiful down the stretch (at Nebraska, even if they are resurgent, home to A&M, at Oklahoma State, and home to Missouri).
VERDICT: IN
Texas A&M (19-7, RPI: 44, SOS: 37, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-4): The Aggies are an enigma. They beat Texas in College Station for a marquee win, but were trucked by the Horns in Austin. Ohio State and Oral Roberts are the two best non-league wins. A&M wraps up with Texas Tech at home, road trips to OU and Baylor, and Kansas at home. Yikes. That's a group of motivated teams, but the Aggies should get a split and be safe.
VERDICT: IN
Conference USA
UAB (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Blazers have no bad losses, but their two best wins are over Kentucky (in Louisville) and Houston (at home). While those victories should put UAB ahead of either of those teams and the close loss to Memphis is helpful, this is a team that has a lot of work to do. They wrap up at UTEP, home to Tulane and Tulsa, and at Memphis for a rematch. If they go 3-1 there, they should get the 2 seed in the conference tournament. Reaching the final may be enough.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Houston (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Cougars had many opportunities to keep themselves off the bubble. A win against Kentucky doesn't go as far as it used to, and games dropped against UMass, VCU, UAB, and Arizona would all help right about now. Southern Miss, at East Carolina, UCF, and at UTEP are not games that will help the RPI rise much.
VERDICT: OUT
Mountain West
UNLV (19-6, RPI: 34, SOS: 82, L12: 9-3, RN: 6-4): The Rebels host the Mountain West tournament, so they'll probably end up with the auto bid and consign BYU to the at-large pool (especially when you consider UNLV won the meeting in Las Vegas by 29). However, if that doesn't happen, it would be hard to leave out the second place team in the MWC, which typically gets two teams in. UNLV's best wins are Nevada, BYU, and New Mexico, all at home. The homestretch includes home games with San Diego State, TCU, and Utah, and a road game with New Mexico that may be an elimination game. In the end, I think they're in as the auto bid.
VERDICT: IN
New Mexico (22-6, RPI: 43, SOS: 150, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-5): 22 wins and a decent RPI would typically mean the Lobos would be in good shape to get in. The non-conference slate was soft, however (including a rare home-and-home with Hawai'i). They don't yet own a win over either BYU or UNLV, but they get them both at home on consecutive Tuesday nights. A road trip against Colorado State to end the year won't help the computer numbers at all.
VERDICT: OUT
Pac 10
Arizona State (17-9, RPI: 71, SOS: 78, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-6): The Sun Devils split with the Washington schools this week. Sweeping Arizona and beating Xavier will get the committee's attention, but more importantly, ASU doesn't have any really bad losses: Nebraska's getting better and Illinois was early. The lack of consistency is worrisome, however. A homestand with the LA schools and a road trip to the Oregon schools end the regular season. ASU should earn a split in both, but could sweep UO and OSU.
VERDICT: IN
California (15-9, RPI: 78, SOS: 59, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-3): A win at Stanford tonight would be a big boost. Most of the Bears' marquee wins have been in the league (USC, at Washington State, at Arizona State), and there's little punch in the non-league schedule (Missouri, Nevada, and San Diego State are the three best wins). However, the Bears have no bad losses at all. A closing stretch of the Washington schools at home and the LA schools away is crucial. A 2-2 finish there would put them at 9-9 or 8-10 (depending on the Stanford result tonight). This year, that could be enough. Steal another game from Wazzu and it's a whole new ballgame.
VERDICT: IN
Oregon (15-12, RPI: 57, SOS: 9, L12: 4-8, RN: 5-9): The Ducks currently sit at 6-9 in the Pac 10, but should move to 7-9 after playing at Oregon State next Sunday. UO wraps up with the Arizona schools at home. They'd need a sweep to get to 9-9 in the league. I don't see that happening with the way they've been playing.
VERDICT: OUT
SEC
Arkansas (18-8, RPI: 38, SOS: 45, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-7): The Razorbacks dropped a close one to Kentucky on Saturday, and finish at Alabama, home to Vandy, at Ole Miss, and home to Auburn. They should at least go 2 and 2 in those four. Though wins over Vandy and Ole Miss would make an Arkansas appearance a certainty. 9-7 in the SEC (even in the weaker half) with wins over VCU, Baylor, Florida, Miss. State, and Ole Miss is more than most bubble teams will have.
VERDICT: IN
Florida (20-7, RPI: 59, SOS: 113, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-5): The Gators non-conference schedule hasn't helped them at all, neither does losing to LSU, FSU, or fellow bubble boys Ohio State. However, UF can get a bump at the end of the year. Mississippi State and Tennessee both come to Gainesville, sandwiched between a dangerous road trip to Georgia and another road game at Kentucky. The Gators should do just enough to make it in.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Kentucky (15-10, RPI: 64, SOS: 20, L12: 9-3, RN: 3-6): Look who's here. Look who has a really good shot to finish 12-4 or 11-5 in the SEC. The Wildcats get Ole Miss and Florida at home, with trips to Knoxville and Columbia in between. In the end, I think 11-5 is likely, but with the non-conference stumbles, that won't be enough.
VERDICT: OUT
Mississippi (18-8, RPI: 45, SOS: 71, L12: 5-7, RN: 6-6): It's fitting that the Rebels best non-league win was against Clemson, since they greatly resemble the 2006 or 2007 Tigers. At Kentucky, Bama and Arkansas at home, and at Georgia isn't the way to get to 8-8 in the league, which is what they need to justify a place in the tourney. They'd have to win all four. I don't see that happening.
VERDICT: OUT
To recap, these 12 teams should end up with the last at-large bids.
Arkansas
Arizona State
Baylor
California
Maryland
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Saint Joseph's
Texas A&M
These 3 should also get in; however, they will fall off the board in this order should something happen to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama during Championship Week.
UAB
Florida
Wake Forest
New bracket tomorrow night.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Three Weekends Left...Time to Double Up
Tomorrow, we're three weeks away from Selection Sunday. Since we're heading down the homestretch, it's time for me to put out brackets a bit more frequently. Today's bracket will be the first of the week. The next update will be Monday night. I'll continue the Saturday/Monday schedule until March 10. At that point (work permitting), I'll put out a bracket every day until Selection Sunday.
To mark the milestone, I'm going to examine the bubble a bit more closely tomorrow evening. More specifically, I'm going to focus on what each of the bubble teams have left and assess their chances to be dancing in three weeks.
Shuffling the Top Line
The one seeds once again remain the same four. (Tune in Monday to see if tonight's Tennessee-Memphis game changes this.) Memphis remains the overall number one for now. Duke's mini-slide drops them to the fourth one-seed, however. After losses to Wake Forest and bracket newcomer Miami, the Blue Devils are in danger of being passed. for the top overall spot. Kansas and Tennessee round out the top line. At this point, I think Memphis is the only one of this group who isn't in real danger of falling to the two line. That could change depending on their performance tonight.
The two and three lines from Monday remain stable. Of the two seeds, North Carolina, UCLA, and (especially) Texas have a great chance to move up. Stanford would probably need to sweep the Pac 10 titles to be considered because of some non-conference stumbles. In fact, the stronger three seeds, Xavier, Connecticut, and Wisconsin, could pass the Cardinal as the season winds down. Louisville, the fourth three seed, has some non-conference smudges that, like the Cardinal, prevent them from moving up any more.
Indiana, Purdue, and Georgetown remain on the four-line. Drake drops down to a five-seed (but remains in Denver) as the result of a close loss to Bradley. Their BracketBuster game with Butler is crucial to both teams' fading hopes of a protected seed.
The bracket gained an at-large spot today based on South Alabama's win at Western Kentucky on Thursday night. For the people who've asked me about why the Jaguars are getting at-large consideration, Ken Pomeroy's RPI has them at 27 after Thursday night. That is clearly within the bounds for at-large consideration.
Florida, Massachusetts, Miami, and UNLV join the party today, replacing Dayton and St. Joseph's (Both teams lost to LaSalle this week, something you cannot do at this point of the season while fighting for a bid.), Oregon (6-8 in the Pac 10 won't cut it), and Western Kentucky (see above). Certain teams that would be out any other year are still here. I'm particularly referring to Syracuse (barely hanging on at .500 in the Big East) and Ohio State. (The Buckeyes have to be here if the Gators and Orange are, since they beat both.) But I'll get more into the soapy mess that is this year's bubble tomorrow evening.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Florida
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV
Out of the Bracket
Dayton
Oregon
Saint Joseph's
Western Kentucky (auto)
Last Four In
Florida
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Last Four Out
UAB
California
Dayton
Houston
Next Four Out
George Mason
Mississippi
Oregon
Saint Joseph's
Also Considered
Illinois State
New Mexico
Villanova
Western Kentucky
E-mail me with comments or questions.
To mark the milestone, I'm going to examine the bubble a bit more closely tomorrow evening. More specifically, I'm going to focus on what each of the bubble teams have left and assess their chances to be dancing in three weeks.
Shuffling the Top Line
The one seeds once again remain the same four. (Tune in Monday to see if tonight's Tennessee-Memphis game changes this.) Memphis remains the overall number one for now. Duke's mini-slide drops them to the fourth one-seed, however. After losses to Wake Forest and bracket newcomer Miami, the Blue Devils are in danger of being passed. for the top overall spot. Kansas and Tennessee round out the top line. At this point, I think Memphis is the only one of this group who isn't in real danger of falling to the two line. That could change depending on their performance tonight.
The two and three lines from Monday remain stable. Of the two seeds, North Carolina, UCLA, and (especially) Texas have a great chance to move up. Stanford would probably need to sweep the Pac 10 titles to be considered because of some non-conference stumbles. In fact, the stronger three seeds, Xavier, Connecticut, and Wisconsin, could pass the Cardinal as the season winds down. Louisville, the fourth three seed, has some non-conference smudges that, like the Cardinal, prevent them from moving up any more.
Indiana, Purdue, and Georgetown remain on the four-line. Drake drops down to a five-seed (but remains in Denver) as the result of a close loss to Bradley. Their BracketBuster game with Butler is crucial to both teams' fading hopes of a protected seed.
The bracket gained an at-large spot today based on South Alabama's win at Western Kentucky on Thursday night. For the people who've asked me about why the Jaguars are getting at-large consideration, Ken Pomeroy's RPI has them at 27 after Thursday night. That is clearly within the bounds for at-large consideration.
Florida, Massachusetts, Miami, and UNLV join the party today, replacing Dayton and St. Joseph's (Both teams lost to LaSalle this week, something you cannot do at this point of the season while fighting for a bid.), Oregon (6-8 in the Pac 10 won't cut it), and Western Kentucky (see above). Certain teams that would be out any other year are still here. I'm particularly referring to Syracuse (barely hanging on at .500 in the Big East) and Ohio State. (The Buckeyes have to be here if the Gators and Orange are, since they beat both.) But I'll get more into the soapy mess that is this year's bubble tomorrow evening.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Florida
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV
Out of the Bracket
Dayton
Oregon
Saint Joseph's
Western Kentucky (auto)
Last Four In
Florida
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Last Four Out
UAB
California
Dayton
Houston
Next Four Out
George Mason
Mississippi
Oregon
Saint Joseph's
Also Considered
Illinois State
New Mexico
Villanova
Western Kentucky
E-mail me with comments or questions.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
BracketBuster Preview
One of the most interesting recent innovations in college basketball starts Friday night, the four-letter network's slightly inaccurately named BracketBusters weekend. (Since around 100 teams participate now, I think "inaccurate" is being kind, considering only 65 teams get in the bracket that's going to be busted, but I digress.) While it might be more fun to see middling major conference teams take a break from their league schedules to meet other bubble boys (as long as Florida and Syracuse aren't drawn against each other in this mythical event), the chances of that happening are as good as the opening round game featuring two at-larges. So, here's my preview of the TV games, going in order of increasing at-large implications. Note, I'm not counting four-letter 360's games, since I have no way of seeing them short of flying down to my parents' house this weekend.
All times are Eastern.
NO At-Large Implications
Miami (13-12, 7-6 MAC) at Valparaiso (13-12, 6-9 Horizon) - Saturday 6 p.m., four-letter Classic
Seriously... Miami is a middle-of-the-pack MAC side and Valpo has found life in the Horizon to be tough. Next!
Marist (15-12, 9-7 MAAC) at Cleveland State (16-11, 11-6 Horizon) - Saturday 6:30 p.m., four-letterU
This is a matchup of teams who had real tournament chances about three weeks ago. The Red Foxes were in the lead pack in the Metro Atlantic earlier in the season, but now don't belong in the same conversation as teams like Siena, Rider, Niagara, and Loyola. (Even though with a road win at Rider and a 19-point home win over Niagara, they could make noise in Albany in March.) Meanwhile, the Vikings threatened to make the Horizon a multi-bid league after jumping out to a 7-0 league start, including a win over Butler at home. A five-game losing streak immediately followed, but Gary Waters' team has done a nice job of righting the ship by winning four of their five.
UC-Santa Barbara (19-6, 9-4 Big West) at Utah State (17-9, 8-4 WAC) - Friday 9 p.m., four-letterU
The Aggies were leading the WAC until their recent three game road trip, which turned into a three-game losing streak. With an RPI of 92 and an underwhelming SOS (best win at home to Oral Roberts), they don't have the at-large chance they usually have while contending. The Gauchos, who are trying to keep pace with Northridge and Fullerton in the Big West, have a slightly better RPI (88) and own a win over UNLV, who may have a chance at an at-large out of the Mountain West.
Rider (18-9, 11-5 MAAC) at Cal State-Northridge (17-6, 10-2 Big West) - Saturday 9 p.m., four-letterU
Two teams you may see as 14 seeds on Selection Sunday. It's a chance to see the Thompson brothers, Jason and Ryan, in a real road challenge. Considering the Broncs may need to beat Siena on their home court to get to the Dance, this matchup is a good piece of practice for them. The Matadors have lost only once at home all year (to Fullerton by 8) and the tiny Matadome will be rocking.
Nevada (16-9, 9-4 WAC) at Southern Illinois (15-12, 10-6 MVC) - Saturday 4:30 p.m., four-letterU
The Wolf Pack currently has one top 100 win (at home to Utah State). They can make it two with a win in Carbondale. The Salukis currently sit a game behind Illinois State for second in the Valley, and since they've beaten Drake, have a good chance at stealing the auto bid at Arch Madness. A win here would boost their confidence heading down the stretch.
At-Large Implications Only if There's Another Lunar Eclipse in the Next Three Weeks
Wright State (20-6, 12-4 Horizon) at Illinois State (18-8, 11-5 MVC) - Sunday 6:30 p.m., four-letterU
The Raiders once again sit two games behind Butler in the Horizon. They also have beaten the Bulldogs in Dayton. Their RPI of 70 is in the neighborhood of at-large consideration, but they have no big wins outside of Butler. If this game was played a few weeks ago, a win at Redbird Arena would probably have helped the cause. However, the Redbirds are 5-5 in their last 10, after starting 6-0 in the Valley. Illinois State's RPI currently sits at 52, impressive considering they don't have a win over a team rated better than 56. And who says the RPI isn't flawed??
Creighton (17-8, 9-7 MVC) at Oral Roberts (18-6, 14-1 Summit) - Saturday 3 p.m., four-letter2
The closest the Blue Jays may get to the tourney this year is watching it at the Qwest Center. The Golden Eagles just had their dreams of a perfect Summit League season dashed by the IUPUI Jaguars Saturday night, and are looking for a name scalp to make up for it. Their RPI of 44 is definitely within the traditional boundary for at-large consideration, but even with a win Saturday the actual schedule doesn't measure up.
Serious At-Large Implications
Virginia Commonwealth (20-6, 13-3 CAA) at Akron (19-7, 9-4 MAC) - Saturday 11 a.m., four-letter2
More on the line here for the Rams than the Zips. The Zips were left out by the Committee last year despite a 25-7 record and will have to win out and win the MAC tournament to match that win total (taking the guys in the Indy hotel room out of the equation). They won't get at-large consideration this year for the same reason as last year, their out-of-conference schedule is too weak. On the other hand, the Rams have a very good chance at getting in, if they win out and make the Colonial final. They just cannot lose this one, however.
George Mason (19-8, 11-5 CAA) at Ohio (17-9, 8-5 MAC) - Saturday 1 p.m., four-letter2
The Bobcats were looking like a reasonable at-large candidate until a recent 2-2 run in the MAC. The Patriots have some very good wins (Kansas State and Dayton) and some really bad losses (East Carolina and Georgia State). If they didn't drop those two games, they're almost certainly in the field. Now, they may need to win the CAA tournament and like VCU, they can't lose to a slightly inferior MAC opponent.
Davidson (19-6, 18-0 Southern) at Winthrop (16-9, 9-3 Big South) - Friday 7 p.m., four-letter2
Thanks to recent stumbles by UNC-Asheville, the Golden Eagles are back in front of the Big South. Davidson is trying to go unbeaten in the SoCon for the second time in four years, though this year's feat would be more impressive thanks to four more league games on the slate. Yes, the Wildcats went 1-6 in D1 games in the non-league portion of the schedule, but the losses will give the Committee a lot to think about if the Cats don't get the auto bid, UNC by 4, Duke by 6, UCLA by 12, NC State by 1 (though losses to Western Michigan and Charlotte aren't quite the same). In the final analysis, this is another case of a team with a borderline profile that cannot afford to lose.
Kent State (22-5, 11-2 MAC) at St. Mary's (22-3, 10-1 WCC) - Saturday, 11:59 p.m., four-letter2
The Gaels are almost certainly in the field at this point, but the Golden Flashes are the MAC's only shot at an at-large. (Wins over Mason and Illinois State help their case, a season-opening one-point loss to a terrible Detroit team is forgivable, as is the neutral loss to Xavier and road losses to UNC and Ohio, losing at Toledo is dicey.) A win in Moraga, where it is virtually impossible to win would immediately boost Kent State's profile and keep them on the board should they get knocked out in the MAC tournament. I don't think Randy Bennett's Aussie contingent will let that happen though.
Playing for Seeding
The game of the slate is at Hinkle Fieldhouse between the battling Bulldogs, Drake (21-3, 14-2 MVC) and Butler (25-2, 14-2 Horizon). Both teams are in the field, so this game may very well be for a protected seed, though I still think that Butler has a better chance for one long term, even if my current bracket doesn't reflect this. This will be the first chance many fans will have to see Drake play this year, and that's a shame. They're a hard team to pin down. They're not terribly athletic or talented, in fact, most of their opposition is equal or slightly better talent-wise. They just have a great team ethic and will to win. Both teams play a similar style, so expect a very close, defensive game in the low 60s.
There are a few non-TV games that deserve a mention. Big Sky leader Portland State goes to Fullerton to take on the Big West's second place team. Niagara has a good shot in the MAAC and will get a stiff test at Appalachian State, who still has a shot in the SoCon North (aka the non-Davidson division). Georgia Southern goes to Ohio Valley leaders Austin Peay.
Since the season is heading for the homestretch, I am as well. I'm moving to a Saturday morning/Monday evening bracket schedule this week.
All times are Eastern.
NO At-Large Implications
Miami (13-12, 7-6 MAC) at Valparaiso (13-12, 6-9 Horizon) - Saturday 6 p.m., four-letter Classic
Seriously... Miami is a middle-of-the-pack MAC side and Valpo has found life in the Horizon to be tough. Next!
Marist (15-12, 9-7 MAAC) at Cleveland State (16-11, 11-6 Horizon) - Saturday 6:30 p.m., four-letterU
This is a matchup of teams who had real tournament chances about three weeks ago. The Red Foxes were in the lead pack in the Metro Atlantic earlier in the season, but now don't belong in the same conversation as teams like Siena, Rider, Niagara, and Loyola. (Even though with a road win at Rider and a 19-point home win over Niagara, they could make noise in Albany in March.) Meanwhile, the Vikings threatened to make the Horizon a multi-bid league after jumping out to a 7-0 league start, including a win over Butler at home. A five-game losing streak immediately followed, but Gary Waters' team has done a nice job of righting the ship by winning four of their five.
UC-Santa Barbara (19-6, 9-4 Big West) at Utah State (17-9, 8-4 WAC) - Friday 9 p.m., four-letterU
The Aggies were leading the WAC until their recent three game road trip, which turned into a three-game losing streak. With an RPI of 92 and an underwhelming SOS (best win at home to Oral Roberts), they don't have the at-large chance they usually have while contending. The Gauchos, who are trying to keep pace with Northridge and Fullerton in the Big West, have a slightly better RPI (88) and own a win over UNLV, who may have a chance at an at-large out of the Mountain West.
Rider (18-9, 11-5 MAAC) at Cal State-Northridge (17-6, 10-2 Big West) - Saturday 9 p.m., four-letterU
Two teams you may see as 14 seeds on Selection Sunday. It's a chance to see the Thompson brothers, Jason and Ryan, in a real road challenge. Considering the Broncs may need to beat Siena on their home court to get to the Dance, this matchup is a good piece of practice for them. The Matadors have lost only once at home all year (to Fullerton by 8) and the tiny Matadome will be rocking.
Nevada (16-9, 9-4 WAC) at Southern Illinois (15-12, 10-6 MVC) - Saturday 4:30 p.m., four-letterU
The Wolf Pack currently has one top 100 win (at home to Utah State). They can make it two with a win in Carbondale. The Salukis currently sit a game behind Illinois State for second in the Valley, and since they've beaten Drake, have a good chance at stealing the auto bid at Arch Madness. A win here would boost their confidence heading down the stretch.
At-Large Implications Only if There's Another Lunar Eclipse in the Next Three Weeks
Wright State (20-6, 12-4 Horizon) at Illinois State (18-8, 11-5 MVC) - Sunday 6:30 p.m., four-letterU
The Raiders once again sit two games behind Butler in the Horizon. They also have beaten the Bulldogs in Dayton. Their RPI of 70 is in the neighborhood of at-large consideration, but they have no big wins outside of Butler. If this game was played a few weeks ago, a win at Redbird Arena would probably have helped the cause. However, the Redbirds are 5-5 in their last 10, after starting 6-0 in the Valley. Illinois State's RPI currently sits at 52, impressive considering they don't have a win over a team rated better than 56. And who says the RPI isn't flawed??
Creighton (17-8, 9-7 MVC) at Oral Roberts (18-6, 14-1 Summit) - Saturday 3 p.m., four-letter2
The closest the Blue Jays may get to the tourney this year is watching it at the Qwest Center. The Golden Eagles just had their dreams of a perfect Summit League season dashed by the IUPUI Jaguars Saturday night, and are looking for a name scalp to make up for it. Their RPI of 44 is definitely within the traditional boundary for at-large consideration, but even with a win Saturday the actual schedule doesn't measure up.
Serious At-Large Implications
Virginia Commonwealth (20-6, 13-3 CAA) at Akron (19-7, 9-4 MAC) - Saturday 11 a.m., four-letter2
More on the line here for the Rams than the Zips. The Zips were left out by the Committee last year despite a 25-7 record and will have to win out and win the MAC tournament to match that win total (taking the guys in the Indy hotel room out of the equation). They won't get at-large consideration this year for the same reason as last year, their out-of-conference schedule is too weak. On the other hand, the Rams have a very good chance at getting in, if they win out and make the Colonial final. They just cannot lose this one, however.
George Mason (19-8, 11-5 CAA) at Ohio (17-9, 8-5 MAC) - Saturday 1 p.m., four-letter2
The Bobcats were looking like a reasonable at-large candidate until a recent 2-2 run in the MAC. The Patriots have some very good wins (Kansas State and Dayton) and some really bad losses (East Carolina and Georgia State). If they didn't drop those two games, they're almost certainly in the field. Now, they may need to win the CAA tournament and like VCU, they can't lose to a slightly inferior MAC opponent.
Davidson (19-6, 18-0 Southern) at Winthrop (16-9, 9-3 Big South) - Friday 7 p.m., four-letter2
Thanks to recent stumbles by UNC-Asheville, the Golden Eagles are back in front of the Big South. Davidson is trying to go unbeaten in the SoCon for the second time in four years, though this year's feat would be more impressive thanks to four more league games on the slate. Yes, the Wildcats went 1-6 in D1 games in the non-league portion of the schedule, but the losses will give the Committee a lot to think about if the Cats don't get the auto bid, UNC by 4, Duke by 6, UCLA by 12, NC State by 1 (though losses to Western Michigan and Charlotte aren't quite the same). In the final analysis, this is another case of a team with a borderline profile that cannot afford to lose.
Kent State (22-5, 11-2 MAC) at St. Mary's (22-3, 10-1 WCC) - Saturday, 11:59 p.m., four-letter2
The Gaels are almost certainly in the field at this point, but the Golden Flashes are the MAC's only shot at an at-large. (Wins over Mason and Illinois State help their case, a season-opening one-point loss to a terrible Detroit team is forgivable, as is the neutral loss to Xavier and road losses to UNC and Ohio, losing at Toledo is dicey.) A win in Moraga, where it is virtually impossible to win would immediately boost Kent State's profile and keep them on the board should they get knocked out in the MAC tournament. I don't think Randy Bennett's Aussie contingent will let that happen though.
Playing for Seeding
The game of the slate is at Hinkle Fieldhouse between the battling Bulldogs, Drake (21-3, 14-2 MVC) and Butler (25-2, 14-2 Horizon). Both teams are in the field, so this game may very well be for a protected seed, though I still think that Butler has a better chance for one long term, even if my current bracket doesn't reflect this. This will be the first chance many fans will have to see Drake play this year, and that's a shame. They're a hard team to pin down. They're not terribly athletic or talented, in fact, most of their opposition is equal or slightly better talent-wise. They just have a great team ethic and will to win. Both teams play a similar style, so expect a very close, defensive game in the low 60s.
There are a few non-TV games that deserve a mention. Big Sky leader Portland State goes to Fullerton to take on the Big West's second place team. Niagara has a good shot in the MAAC and will get a stiff test at Appalachian State, who still has a shot in the SoCon North (aka the non-Davidson division). Georgia Southern goes to Ohio Valley leaders Austin Peay.
Since the season is heading for the homestretch, I am as well. I'm moving to a Saturday morning/Monday evening bracket schedule this week.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Four Weeks to Stake a Claim
Just about a month from today, millions of people across the country and around the world will start filling out brackets for fun (certainly not for financial gain, NCAA). In the next four weeks, we'll probably come to a better understanding of which 34 at-large teams will make the tournament. As for now, I think pretty much everyone is stumped. In fact, with some of the inconsistency in the middle of the major conferences, you could probably knock four at-larges out of the field and not have much of a problem. Unfortunately, we're still stuck with placing 65 teams in this week's bracket.
There's no change among the one seeds this week, but there is a slight shuffle in the order. Memphis passes Duke for the top overall spot. The Tigers are still unbeaten, and the Blue Devils drop after their Sunday night loss at bracket newcomer Wake Forest. Tennessee is now the number three overall seed, while Kansas drops to fourth. This makes the ideal semifinal matchups Memphis-Kansas and Duke-Tennessee.
Georgetown tumbles from the two line to the four line after their loss to Syracuse (which kept the Orange in the bracket...barely) and Texas moves up to replace them. The Longhorns now own wins over two one seeds (Kansas and Tennessee) and a two (UCLA) and along with the Bruins have the best chance to jump onto the top line. North Carolina and Stanford round out the two seeds.
No change among the three seeds as Connecticut, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Xavier stay steady. The aforementioned Hoyas lead off the four line, where they're joined by Big Ten leader Purdue (who moves up from a six seed) and holdovers Indiana and Drake. If the Boilermakers keep it up, they'll probably pass the Badgers soon. (Their non-conference slate is currently holding them back.)
As for the bubble, Florida drops out as a result of two losses this week. The close loss to Vanderbilt would have been OK by itself, but losing at home to LSU was unforgivable. The opposite is the case for Syracuse. The Orange stay in by following an unforgivable loss at South Florida with a good win at home over Georgetown. SU is still on life support, however. They likely will need a split at Louisville and Notre Dame this week to stay in. Mississippi falls out. Their conference struggles are hurting their computer numbers, not that their non-conference profile was that great to begin with. Oregon jumps in, despite being very up and down lately. Arizona State and Dayton are hanging on at the moment after splitting their two games this week. The Sun Devils beat Stanford, but lost to Cal; the Flyers lost to Duquesne and beat Temple.
There are also two Sun Belt teams in the field this week. Western Kentucky plays South Alabama in Bowling Green on Thursday with the regular season title on the line. The Hilltoppers have the auto bid this week, since the Jaguars dropped a game to Middle Tennessee. South Alabama stays in as an at-large, even with a close loss to Mississippi. They've beaten Mississippi State and the fact that they've been winning games when teams like Florida and Mississippi aren't helps them. The Jags will probably be the only Sun Belt team in next week if they win on Thursday night.
Coming on Thursday, a BracketBusters preview.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Pac 10 - 7
Big 12 - 6
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 5
SEC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 4
Sun Belt - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Boise State (auto)
Oregon
Wagner (auto)
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky (auto) (Note: South Alabama is in as an at-large.)
Winthrop (auto)
Out of the Bracket
Florida
Massachusetts
Mississippi
UNC Asheville (auto)
Sacred Heart (auto)
Utah State (auto)
Last Four In
Dayton
South Alabama
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Last Four Out
Florida
Houston
Mississippi
UNLV
Next Four Out
California
George Mason
Massachusetts
Miami
Also Considered
UAB
Charlotte
Duquesne
Illinois State
New Mexico
Seton Hall
Villanova
Virginia Tech
E-mail me with comments or questions.
There's no change among the one seeds this week, but there is a slight shuffle in the order. Memphis passes Duke for the top overall spot. The Tigers are still unbeaten, and the Blue Devils drop after their Sunday night loss at bracket newcomer Wake Forest. Tennessee is now the number three overall seed, while Kansas drops to fourth. This makes the ideal semifinal matchups Memphis-Kansas and Duke-Tennessee.
Georgetown tumbles from the two line to the four line after their loss to Syracuse (which kept the Orange in the bracket...barely) and Texas moves up to replace them. The Longhorns now own wins over two one seeds (Kansas and Tennessee) and a two (UCLA) and along with the Bruins have the best chance to jump onto the top line. North Carolina and Stanford round out the two seeds.
No change among the three seeds as Connecticut, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Xavier stay steady. The aforementioned Hoyas lead off the four line, where they're joined by Big Ten leader Purdue (who moves up from a six seed) and holdovers Indiana and Drake. If the Boilermakers keep it up, they'll probably pass the Badgers soon. (Their non-conference slate is currently holding them back.)
As for the bubble, Florida drops out as a result of two losses this week. The close loss to Vanderbilt would have been OK by itself, but losing at home to LSU was unforgivable. The opposite is the case for Syracuse. The Orange stay in by following an unforgivable loss at South Florida with a good win at home over Georgetown. SU is still on life support, however. They likely will need a split at Louisville and Notre Dame this week to stay in. Mississippi falls out. Their conference struggles are hurting their computer numbers, not that their non-conference profile was that great to begin with. Oregon jumps in, despite being very up and down lately. Arizona State and Dayton are hanging on at the moment after splitting their two games this week. The Sun Devils beat Stanford, but lost to Cal; the Flyers lost to Duquesne and beat Temple.
There are also two Sun Belt teams in the field this week. Western Kentucky plays South Alabama in Bowling Green on Thursday with the regular season title on the line. The Hilltoppers have the auto bid this week, since the Jaguars dropped a game to Middle Tennessee. South Alabama stays in as an at-large, even with a close loss to Mississippi. They've beaten Mississippi State and the fact that they've been winning games when teams like Florida and Mississippi aren't helps them. The Jags will probably be the only Sun Belt team in next week if they win on Thursday night.
Coming on Thursday, a BracketBusters preview.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Pac 10 - 7
Big 12 - 6
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 5
SEC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 4
Sun Belt - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Boise State (auto)
Oregon
Wagner (auto)
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky (auto) (Note: South Alabama is in as an at-large.)
Winthrop (auto)
Out of the Bracket
Florida
Massachusetts
Mississippi
UNC Asheville (auto)
Sacred Heart (auto)
Utah State (auto)
Last Four In
Dayton
South Alabama
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Last Four Out
Florida
Houston
Mississippi
UNLV
Next Four Out
California
George Mason
Massachusetts
Miami
Also Considered
UAB
Charlotte
Duquesne
Illinois State
New Mexico
Seton Hall
Villanova
Virginia Tech
E-mail me with comments or questions.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Five Weeks Away
This week's bracket features some major moves (and likewise some falls) at the top of the bracket and a certain level of stability at the bottom of the at-large pool, with only two new at-large entrants.
Change at the Top
Duke replaces Memphis as the number 1 overall team this week by a whisker. The win over North Carolina plays a major role in this, but so does the fact the Blue Devils are more regularly playing teams capable of giving them a game than the Tigers are. I don't really see this changing until Memphis plays Tennessee a week from Saturday. Speaking of the Vols, they replace UNC on the top line this week. Sunday morning, I was prepared to give the 4th one seed to UCLA. The Bruins promptly lost to a disappointing Washington team in Seattle. However, UCLA stays in the West region, where they would face Tennessee in the ideal regional final.
Stanford moves up to the 2 line, replacing Wisconsin. The Badgers drop after losing at home to Purdue and struggling at a bad Iowa team last week. The Cardinal are quietly putting together a nice run, winning seven Pac 10 games in a row. They are in position to more than make up for their embarrassing performance in last year's tournament. Georgetown holds steady on the 2 line, but there are two Big East teams breathing down their backs.
Louisville and Connecticut are making up for early season slip ups and find themselves on the 3 line. (In fact, the only reason the Cardinals didn't pass the Hoyas this week is their inconsistent play in the non-conference part of the season.) Xavier and the aforementioned Badgers are the other two 3 seeds.
The people of Des Moines can rejoice. Drake's impressive win at Redbird Arena (and overall winning streak) moves them into a protected seed spot. They have a huge game at SIU Wednesday night. Even though the Salukis are down, their fans will be up for this one. Indiana drops down to from the 3 line, while Butler and Texas hold steady on the 4 line. Michigan State and Washington State fall into the dreaded 5-12 game this week. Teams on the 4 line need to try to hold off Kansas State and Notre Dame. These two teams are really starting to come together right now. Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are really getting in a groove for the Wildcats and the Irish are winning the games they need to in the Big East.
At the bottom of the bracket, George Mason drops out after losing at Old Dominion. (This isn't 2006 or 2007, Patriots. And 25 point swings against conference opponents aren't helpful either.) Seton Hall also falls out after three straight conference losses, including one to Villanova in Philly, which broke the Wildcats five-game league losing streak. Arizona State comes back into the fold after completing a sweep with Arizona. Massachusetts becomes the fifth A10 team in the bracket this week as well based on their win over Rhode Island Thursday. The overtime loss at Temple Sunday made me think long and hard about including the Minutemen, but they're in for the moment.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 6
Atlantic 10 - 5
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 4
West Coast - 2
Last Four In
Arizona State
Dayton
Massachusetts
Syracuse
Last Four Out
George Mason
UNLV
Oregon
Seton Hall
Next Four Out
Houston
Illinois State
NC State
Ohio
Also Considered
Akron
UAB
California
Charlotte
Creighton
Minnesota
San Diego State
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
New This Week
American (auto)
Arizona State
Belmont (auto)
BYU (auto)
Massachusetts
Morgan State (auto)
Out of the Bracket
George Mason
Hampton (auto)
Jacksonville (auto)
Lafayette (auto)
UNLV (auto)
Seton Hall
E-mail me with comments or questions.
Change at the Top
Duke replaces Memphis as the number 1 overall team this week by a whisker. The win over North Carolina plays a major role in this, but so does the fact the Blue Devils are more regularly playing teams capable of giving them a game than the Tigers are. I don't really see this changing until Memphis plays Tennessee a week from Saturday. Speaking of the Vols, they replace UNC on the top line this week. Sunday morning, I was prepared to give the 4th one seed to UCLA. The Bruins promptly lost to a disappointing Washington team in Seattle. However, UCLA stays in the West region, where they would face Tennessee in the ideal regional final.
Stanford moves up to the 2 line, replacing Wisconsin. The Badgers drop after losing at home to Purdue and struggling at a bad Iowa team last week. The Cardinal are quietly putting together a nice run, winning seven Pac 10 games in a row. They are in position to more than make up for their embarrassing performance in last year's tournament. Georgetown holds steady on the 2 line, but there are two Big East teams breathing down their backs.
Louisville and Connecticut are making up for early season slip ups and find themselves on the 3 line. (In fact, the only reason the Cardinals didn't pass the Hoyas this week is their inconsistent play in the non-conference part of the season.) Xavier and the aforementioned Badgers are the other two 3 seeds.
The people of Des Moines can rejoice. Drake's impressive win at Redbird Arena (and overall winning streak) moves them into a protected seed spot. They have a huge game at SIU Wednesday night. Even though the Salukis are down, their fans will be up for this one. Indiana drops down to from the 3 line, while Butler and Texas hold steady on the 4 line. Michigan State and Washington State fall into the dreaded 5-12 game this week. Teams on the 4 line need to try to hold off Kansas State and Notre Dame. These two teams are really starting to come together right now. Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are really getting in a groove for the Wildcats and the Irish are winning the games they need to in the Big East.
At the bottom of the bracket, George Mason drops out after losing at Old Dominion. (This isn't 2006 or 2007, Patriots. And 25 point swings against conference opponents aren't helpful either.) Seton Hall also falls out after three straight conference losses, including one to Villanova in Philly, which broke the Wildcats five-game league losing streak. Arizona State comes back into the fold after completing a sweep with Arizona. Massachusetts becomes the fifth A10 team in the bracket this week as well based on their win over Rhode Island Thursday. The overtime loss at Temple Sunday made me think long and hard about including the Minutemen, but they're in for the moment.
Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 6
Atlantic 10 - 5
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 4
West Coast - 2
Last Four In
Arizona State
Dayton
Massachusetts
Syracuse
Last Four Out
George Mason
UNLV
Oregon
Seton Hall
Next Four Out
Houston
Illinois State
NC State
Ohio
Also Considered
Akron
UAB
California
Charlotte
Creighton
Minnesota
San Diego State
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
New This Week
American (auto)
Arizona State
Belmont (auto)
BYU (auto)
Massachusetts
Morgan State (auto)
Out of the Bracket
George Mason
Hampton (auto)
Jacksonville (auto)
Lafayette (auto)
UNLV (auto)
Seton Hall
E-mail me with comments or questions.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Banana Peel List 2008 - Missouri Valley through WAC
Missouri Valley - Drake has a four game lead on Illinois State and just completed a sweep of the Redbirds. Illinois State still has a shot at an at-large, though I think their failure to beat Drake once and relatively weak non-conference slate hurts them. My feeling is the only chance the Valley gets two teams in this year is if a team other than the Bulldogs takes Arch Madness. My pick is Drake.
Mountain West - This is currently a three-team race between BYU, UNLV, and San Diego State. The Cougars own a game lead on both the Rebels and Aztecs and the best at-large profile of the three. If they claim the regular season title, BYU will have a legit at-large claim. They may need it. Since the conference tourney is on their home court, I'm picking UNLV.
Northeast - Four teams have a legit shot in this ultra-competitive league. Sacred Heart, last season's regular season runner-up is currently at the top of the league, but Wagner and Robert Morris are tied with the Pioneers in the loss column. Quinnipiac is a game behind the three leaders. The Colonials have the best talent in the league and the best non-conference win (at Boston College), while the Seahawks have a coach, Mike Deane, who's looking to take his fourth different school to the tournament. Sacred Heart has the most difficult schedule of the four leaders, as they're the only one who has to play the other three twice. I think this will catch up with them in the end. This is another conference where the regular season winner has home court advantage in the tournament. I think the sole Wagner-Robert Morris matchup on February 23 will be crucial. My pick is Robert Morris based on their talent and home court advantage.
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay has a two game lead on Murray State, Morehead State, and Eastern Kentucky in the loss column. The Governors and Racers split their two meetings, each winning on their home courts. The Govs end the season at Morehead and EKU. Murray State goes to Morehead State today, as they try to rebound from a loss to the EKU Colonels on Thursday. Since they've been the most consistent team this season, I pick Austin Peay to win the auto-bid.
Patriot League- Perennial league power and preseason favorite Holy Cross looked competitive throughout most of their non-conference slate, but now sit in the basement of the Pat League. That's opened things up considerably, as last year's bottom feeder, Lafayette has a game lead in the loss column on American, Bucknell, and Lehigh. This race is far from over. While the Leopards did beat the Bison in their first meeting, they lost to the Eagles and Mountain Hawks. The top two teams in this league host the quarterfinals and semifinals (two four-team pods), with the highest remaining seed getting the final. I pick Bucknell to rise above the rest to re-assert their dominance in the conference.
Southern - There's a nice race brewing in the North Division between 10-4 Chattanooga and 9-4 Appalachian State. The Mountaineers almost got an at-large last year, but their resume is lacking this year. But this may not matter because of what's happening in the South Division. The Davidson Wildcats may not have claimed any big time scalps in the non-conference portion of the season, but they are taking care of business in the league. They're currently 14-0 and own a five-game lead on Georgia Southern in the South Division. They haven't clinched yet, as the SoCon plays 20 league games. There is no team that understands the importance of winning the conference tournament as much as Davidson after not receiving an at-large bid in 2005 after running the table, so they won't disappoint this year.
Southland - Early in the season, there was talk of Stephen F. Austin (winners at Oklahoma) or Sam Houston State (wins at Texas Tech, UW-Milwaukee, and St. Louis and at home to Fresno State and UCF) maybe earning at-large bids. That talk has ended as the conference season has unfolded. The Lumberjacks and Bearkats are both chasing Lamar at the moment. Southeast Louisiana and 2006 champ Northwestern State are also in the hunt. Lamar has already beaten SHS and lost to Stephen F. Austin, while the Lumberjacks were beaten by the Bearkats. While there is still a long way to go in the regular season, Sam Houston State is my pick, as I think their early season successes will translate into wins at the conference tournament.
Southwestern Athletic - Alabama State has a two-game lead on Southern and a three-game cushion on Mississippi Valley State, Jackson State, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. While the Hornets' sole league loss is to Jackson State, they did beat their closest challenger by 15 in their first meeting in Baton Rouge. Since the league is currently the lowest-rated in Division I, the winner is probably destined for the opening round game in Dayton. I pick Alabama State to fill that slot.
Summit League - Oral Roberts is looking to make the tournament for the third-straight year out of the former Mid-Continent Conference. They have a two-game lead on IUPUI (the preseason pick of a few publications). The Eagles have already beaten the Jags in Tulsa. They meet again in Indy a week from today, but I think they'll meet for a third time in the conference tournament in Tulsa (but not on ORU's home court). I think Oral Roberts will use the semi-home court advantage in the third meeting to claim the auto-bid.
Sun Belt - Much like the Southern Conference, one division is more balanced than the other. The Sun Belt West is a five-team race right now. Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas-Little Rock, and Denver are 6-5, with North Texas and New Orleans a game back. The real action is in the East though where South Alabama and Western Kentucky are tied at 11-1, with both harboring realistic at-large chances. The Jags won in Mobile, but they must go to Bowling Green on February 21. USA has a huge advantage in that they host the conference tournament. Well, that would be a huge advantage except that home teams have had difficulty winning the Sun Belt tournament in the recent past. I think that trend continues this year, USA will have a nervous selection Sunday, as Western Kentucky is my pick for the auto bid.
West Coast - St. Mary's just kept the race going by beating Gonzaga in Moraga on Monday night. I think both teams will be in the field at the end. There is the potential for a third team from the WCC, however, as San Diego is currently tied with the Gaels and the Bulldogs for the league lead. The three-team race should continue for at least a few more games, as Toreros beat the Gaels in San Diego, but lost in Spokane. The Toreros also host the league tournament. In the end, I think this league has a better chance at getting three bids than one. San Diego will pull some upsets and win the tournament at home.
Western Athletic - This is a conference that's grown accustomed to multiple bids and tournament wins, but may get neither this year. No team has much of a shot at an at-large bid, so the conference tournament in Las Cruces will be crucial. Utah State currently leads Boise State by a game and New Mexico State, Nevada, and Hawai'i by two games in the loss column. The Aggies have already beaten the Broncos and Wolf Pack once, but lost by 30 in Las Cruces. Since NMSU knows how to beat Utah State and hosts the league tournament, they're my pick to steal the auto bid.
In summary, here are my auto bid picks.
AmEast - Maryland-Baltimore County
A-Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big West - Pacific
Colonial - Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Pennsylvania
MAAC - Rider
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Drake
MWC - UNLV
NEC - Robert Morris
OVC - Austin Peay
Pat League - Bucknell
SoCon - Davidson
Southland - Sam Houston State
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - Oral Roberts
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - San Diego
WAC - New Mexico State
New bracket tomorrow evening.
Mountain West - This is currently a three-team race between BYU, UNLV, and San Diego State. The Cougars own a game lead on both the Rebels and Aztecs and the best at-large profile of the three. If they claim the regular season title, BYU will have a legit at-large claim. They may need it. Since the conference tourney is on their home court, I'm picking UNLV.
Northeast - Four teams have a legit shot in this ultra-competitive league. Sacred Heart, last season's regular season runner-up is currently at the top of the league, but Wagner and Robert Morris are tied with the Pioneers in the loss column. Quinnipiac is a game behind the three leaders. The Colonials have the best talent in the league and the best non-conference win (at Boston College), while the Seahawks have a coach, Mike Deane, who's looking to take his fourth different school to the tournament. Sacred Heart has the most difficult schedule of the four leaders, as they're the only one who has to play the other three twice. I think this will catch up with them in the end. This is another conference where the regular season winner has home court advantage in the tournament. I think the sole Wagner-Robert Morris matchup on February 23 will be crucial. My pick is Robert Morris based on their talent and home court advantage.
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay has a two game lead on Murray State, Morehead State, and Eastern Kentucky in the loss column. The Governors and Racers split their two meetings, each winning on their home courts. The Govs end the season at Morehead and EKU. Murray State goes to Morehead State today, as they try to rebound from a loss to the EKU Colonels on Thursday. Since they've been the most consistent team this season, I pick Austin Peay to win the auto-bid.
Patriot League- Perennial league power and preseason favorite Holy Cross looked competitive throughout most of their non-conference slate, but now sit in the basement of the Pat League. That's opened things up considerably, as last year's bottom feeder, Lafayette has a game lead in the loss column on American, Bucknell, and Lehigh. This race is far from over. While the Leopards did beat the Bison in their first meeting, they lost to the Eagles and Mountain Hawks. The top two teams in this league host the quarterfinals and semifinals (two four-team pods), with the highest remaining seed getting the final. I pick Bucknell to rise above the rest to re-assert their dominance in the conference.
Southern - There's a nice race brewing in the North Division between 10-4 Chattanooga and 9-4 Appalachian State. The Mountaineers almost got an at-large last year, but their resume is lacking this year. But this may not matter because of what's happening in the South Division. The Davidson Wildcats may not have claimed any big time scalps in the non-conference portion of the season, but they are taking care of business in the league. They're currently 14-0 and own a five-game lead on Georgia Southern in the South Division. They haven't clinched yet, as the SoCon plays 20 league games. There is no team that understands the importance of winning the conference tournament as much as Davidson after not receiving an at-large bid in 2005 after running the table, so they won't disappoint this year.
Southland - Early in the season, there was talk of Stephen F. Austin (winners at Oklahoma) or Sam Houston State (wins at Texas Tech, UW-Milwaukee, and St. Louis and at home to Fresno State and UCF) maybe earning at-large bids. That talk has ended as the conference season has unfolded. The Lumberjacks and Bearkats are both chasing Lamar at the moment. Southeast Louisiana and 2006 champ Northwestern State are also in the hunt. Lamar has already beaten SHS and lost to Stephen F. Austin, while the Lumberjacks were beaten by the Bearkats. While there is still a long way to go in the regular season, Sam Houston State is my pick, as I think their early season successes will translate into wins at the conference tournament.
Southwestern Athletic - Alabama State has a two-game lead on Southern and a three-game cushion on Mississippi Valley State, Jackson State, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. While the Hornets' sole league loss is to Jackson State, they did beat their closest challenger by 15 in their first meeting in Baton Rouge. Since the league is currently the lowest-rated in Division I, the winner is probably destined for the opening round game in Dayton. I pick Alabama State to fill that slot.
Summit League - Oral Roberts is looking to make the tournament for the third-straight year out of the former Mid-Continent Conference. They have a two-game lead on IUPUI (the preseason pick of a few publications). The Eagles have already beaten the Jags in Tulsa. They meet again in Indy a week from today, but I think they'll meet for a third time in the conference tournament in Tulsa (but not on ORU's home court). I think Oral Roberts will use the semi-home court advantage in the third meeting to claim the auto-bid.
Sun Belt - Much like the Southern Conference, one division is more balanced than the other. The Sun Belt West is a five-team race right now. Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas-Little Rock, and Denver are 6-5, with North Texas and New Orleans a game back. The real action is in the East though where South Alabama and Western Kentucky are tied at 11-1, with both harboring realistic at-large chances. The Jags won in Mobile, but they must go to Bowling Green on February 21. USA has a huge advantage in that they host the conference tournament. Well, that would be a huge advantage except that home teams have had difficulty winning the Sun Belt tournament in the recent past. I think that trend continues this year, USA will have a nervous selection Sunday, as Western Kentucky is my pick for the auto bid.
West Coast - St. Mary's just kept the race going by beating Gonzaga in Moraga on Monday night. I think both teams will be in the field at the end. There is the potential for a third team from the WCC, however, as San Diego is currently tied with the Gaels and the Bulldogs for the league lead. The three-team race should continue for at least a few more games, as Toreros beat the Gaels in San Diego, but lost in Spokane. The Toreros also host the league tournament. In the end, I think this league has a better chance at getting three bids than one. San Diego will pull some upsets and win the tournament at home.
Western Athletic - This is a conference that's grown accustomed to multiple bids and tournament wins, but may get neither this year. No team has much of a shot at an at-large bid, so the conference tournament in Las Cruces will be crucial. Utah State currently leads Boise State by a game and New Mexico State, Nevada, and Hawai'i by two games in the loss column. The Aggies have already beaten the Broncos and Wolf Pack once, but lost by 30 in Las Cruces. Since NMSU knows how to beat Utah State and hosts the league tournament, they're my pick to steal the auto bid.
In summary, here are my auto bid picks.
AmEast - Maryland-Baltimore County
A-Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big West - Pacific
Colonial - Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Pennsylvania
MAAC - Rider
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Drake
MWC - UNLV
NEC - Robert Morris
OVC - Austin Peay
Pat League - Bucknell
SoCon - Davidson
Southland - Sam Houston State
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - Oral Roberts
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - San Diego
WAC - New Mexico State
New bracket tomorrow evening.
Friday, February 08, 2008
Banana Peel List 2008 - America East through MEAC
The NCAA Tournament's format is pretty simple, really. 65 teams make the field. 34 of these are at-large qualifiers. 31 reach the field by winning their conference's automatic bid. In 30 of these leagues, the conference tournament winner qualifies. (The Ivy League is still the only hideout.) In a few of these leagues, the winner of the automatic bid is usually a team that's going to get into the field with an at-large bid, with a few notable exceptions through the years. But the vast majority of automatic qualifiers are the only representative from their conference.
Since most teams have reached the halfway point of their conference schedule, it's time to bring back an annual tradition. In the Banana Peel List, I take a look at the races in the leagues that may only get one bid to see who has the best shot at winning the conference's regular season title. I also take a stab at predicting who will end up with the auto bid. This year, I'm going to ignore these conferences since they should undoubtedly get more than 1 bid: ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC. That means a few conferences who normally wouldn't be here are covered this year: C-USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, West Coast, WAC.
As always, during Championship Days, I'll come back and check my picks against what actually goes down.
Today, I'll review 12 leagues, tomorrow the remaining 12.
America East - Maryland-Baltimore County has a game lead on Vermont. More importantly, the Retrievers own a season sweep of the Catamounts. If they can survive the opening rounds in Binghamton, the conference final will be at UMBC. My pick is UMBC.
Atlantic Sun - Belmont defeated league leader Jacksonville in their only regular season meeting last night to move to the top of the table. Watch out for East Tennessee State though, even if they lost at Belmont earlier. The Bucs have beaten the Dolphins and host the Bruins on Valentine's Day. They don't have the advantage of hosting the conference tournament in Johnson City this year though. That's in Nashville, home of Belmont (even if it is in archrival Lipscomb's gym). My pick is Belmont.
Big Sky - Portland State won at Northern Arizona last night to take sole possession of the league lead. Weber State is currently a game back. The Wildcats beat the Vikings in Ogden, with a return scheduled for next Saturday. The regular season champ hosts the conference tournament, so the winner on the 16th has the inside track to making the Dance. My pick is Portland State thanks to the rematch factor.
Big South - Winthrop's reign may be over. 7-7 Kenny George and his UNC-Asheville Bulldogs have a 3-game lead on the Eagles and High Point. This is another league where the winner has home court advantage in the conference tournament, so my pick is UNCA, even if they lose at Winthrop on March 1.
Big West - This race is starting to get very interesting. Pacific, Cal State-Northridge, Cal State-Fullerton, and UC Santa Barbara are beating each other up. The Tigers and Matadors are currently tied atop the league at 7-2, with a split in the season series. Fullerton and Santa Barbara are a game back in the loss column, with the Gauchos owning a sweep of the Titans. The Gauchos have lost to both Pacific and Northridge on the road, however. This one will go down to the conference tourney in Anaheim, where I think Pacific will prevail.
Colonial - In the end, I think this league gets both George Mason and VCU in. The Patriots won the only regular season meeting between the two, but the conference tournament is at VCU's former home court. I pick Mason to win the regular season and get an at-large on the strength of their non-conference schedule and VCU to get the auto bid.
Conference USA - Memphis and the 11 dwarves. That's all you need to know. Sure the Tigers have to host Houston and play UAB twice, but despite what John Calipari says, they aren't losing in this league. Plus, they host the conference tournament. Memphis gets the only Conference USA bid for this year.
Horizon League - Cleveland State caused an early sensation in this league by opening up a 2-game lead on both Butler and Wright State. Now, well, order has been restored. Butler has a two-game lead on Wright State and the Vikings are three games back. After surviving a scare at league newcomer Valpo on Tuesday, the Bulldogs stay on the road to take on the league's two Wisconsin members, who are currently tied with Cleveland State for third. Butler is my pick for the auto bid this season. Of course, if they lose to Wright State again this year, we may see the same two-bid scenario from last year.
Ivy League - The Ancient Eight is still in the early stages of the conference season. Going into the season, there was talk that this would be the end of Penn/Princeton dominance. Right now, Cornell leads the league at 4-0, but guess who's behind them at 2-0... I'm not rocking the boat, my pick is the Penn Quakers.
Metro Atlantic - It's a five team free-for-all in the MAAC. Rider (and Jason Thompson, the best player you've never heard of) has a game lead on Siena. Loyola, Marist, and Niagara are all two games back in the loss column. (The Saints may even join them as they take on Marist tonight.) With as close as these five teams are, it's going to be a fun four days in Albany. My pick is Rider. Thompson is very good and this is a team that's improved since I saw them at the Old Spice Classic, where they had their moments.
Mid-American - This is a league that may get an at-large after several years of going without. Kent State leads Ohio and Akron by a game in the East. The Bobcats have beaten the Flashes this year, while the Zips have beaten Ohio and lost to the Flashes. Western Michigan leads Central Michigan by two games in the West. I think both the auto bid and any potential at-large will come from the East, however. My pick is Ohio University.
Mid-Eastern - Morgan State beat Hampton last night to force a tie at the top of the league. They meet again on February 25 on the Bears' home court. Watch out for Norfolk State. Even though the Spartans lost to Hampton at home, they still play them in Hampton and they also own a win over Morgan State in their only meeting. My pick is Morgan State. Todd Bozeman's coaching experience will be the difference.
I'll start off with the Missouri Valley tomorrow.
Since most teams have reached the halfway point of their conference schedule, it's time to bring back an annual tradition. In the Banana Peel List, I take a look at the races in the leagues that may only get one bid to see who has the best shot at winning the conference's regular season title. I also take a stab at predicting who will end up with the auto bid. This year, I'm going to ignore these conferences since they should undoubtedly get more than 1 bid: ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC. That means a few conferences who normally wouldn't be here are covered this year: C-USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, West Coast, WAC.
As always, during Championship Days, I'll come back and check my picks against what actually goes down.
Today, I'll review 12 leagues, tomorrow the remaining 12.
America East - Maryland-Baltimore County has a game lead on Vermont. More importantly, the Retrievers own a season sweep of the Catamounts. If they can survive the opening rounds in Binghamton, the conference final will be at UMBC. My pick is UMBC.
Atlantic Sun - Belmont defeated league leader Jacksonville in their only regular season meeting last night to move to the top of the table. Watch out for East Tennessee State though, even if they lost at Belmont earlier. The Bucs have beaten the Dolphins and host the Bruins on Valentine's Day. They don't have the advantage of hosting the conference tournament in Johnson City this year though. That's in Nashville, home of Belmont (even if it is in archrival Lipscomb's gym). My pick is Belmont.
Big Sky - Portland State won at Northern Arizona last night to take sole possession of the league lead. Weber State is currently a game back. The Wildcats beat the Vikings in Ogden, with a return scheduled for next Saturday. The regular season champ hosts the conference tournament, so the winner on the 16th has the inside track to making the Dance. My pick is Portland State thanks to the rematch factor.
Big South - Winthrop's reign may be over. 7-7 Kenny George and his UNC-Asheville Bulldogs have a 3-game lead on the Eagles and High Point. This is another league where the winner has home court advantage in the conference tournament, so my pick is UNCA, even if they lose at Winthrop on March 1.
Big West - This race is starting to get very interesting. Pacific, Cal State-Northridge, Cal State-Fullerton, and UC Santa Barbara are beating each other up. The Tigers and Matadors are currently tied atop the league at 7-2, with a split in the season series. Fullerton and Santa Barbara are a game back in the loss column, with the Gauchos owning a sweep of the Titans. The Gauchos have lost to both Pacific and Northridge on the road, however. This one will go down to the conference tourney in Anaheim, where I think Pacific will prevail.
Colonial - In the end, I think this league gets both George Mason and VCU in. The Patriots won the only regular season meeting between the two, but the conference tournament is at VCU's former home court. I pick Mason to win the regular season and get an at-large on the strength of their non-conference schedule and VCU to get the auto bid.
Conference USA - Memphis and the 11 dwarves. That's all you need to know. Sure the Tigers have to host Houston and play UAB twice, but despite what John Calipari says, they aren't losing in this league. Plus, they host the conference tournament. Memphis gets the only Conference USA bid for this year.
Horizon League - Cleveland State caused an early sensation in this league by opening up a 2-game lead on both Butler and Wright State. Now, well, order has been restored. Butler has a two-game lead on Wright State and the Vikings are three games back. After surviving a scare at league newcomer Valpo on Tuesday, the Bulldogs stay on the road to take on the league's two Wisconsin members, who are currently tied with Cleveland State for third. Butler is my pick for the auto bid this season. Of course, if they lose to Wright State again this year, we may see the same two-bid scenario from last year.
Ivy League - The Ancient Eight is still in the early stages of the conference season. Going into the season, there was talk that this would be the end of Penn/Princeton dominance. Right now, Cornell leads the league at 4-0, but guess who's behind them at 2-0... I'm not rocking the boat, my pick is the Penn Quakers.
Metro Atlantic - It's a five team free-for-all in the MAAC. Rider (and Jason Thompson, the best player you've never heard of) has a game lead on Siena. Loyola, Marist, and Niagara are all two games back in the loss column. (The Saints may even join them as they take on Marist tonight.) With as close as these five teams are, it's going to be a fun four days in Albany. My pick is Rider. Thompson is very good and this is a team that's improved since I saw them at the Old Spice Classic, where they had their moments.
Mid-American - This is a league that may get an at-large after several years of going without. Kent State leads Ohio and Akron by a game in the East. The Bobcats have beaten the Flashes this year, while the Zips have beaten Ohio and lost to the Flashes. Western Michigan leads Central Michigan by two games in the West. I think both the auto bid and any potential at-large will come from the East, however. My pick is Ohio University.
Mid-Eastern - Morgan State beat Hampton last night to force a tie at the top of the league. They meet again on February 25 on the Bears' home court. Watch out for Norfolk State. Even though the Spartans lost to Hampton at home, they still play them in Hampton and they also own a win over Morgan State in their only meeting. My pick is Morgan State. Todd Bozeman's coaching experience will be the difference.
I'll start off with the Missouri Valley tomorrow.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Banana Peel List Delayed
I'm holding off on this for a day, as there are a lot of big games in the one-bid leagues tonight that could change things.
Monday, February 04, 2008
Super Monday Bracket
Less Than Six Weeks to Go
Bracket Number Four was a bit easier to put together than last week's edition, but there is a lot of shuffling going on in the world of college basketball that will make the next six weeks exciting and nerve-racking for fans across the country. UNC rejoins Memphis, Kansas, and Duke on the top line of the s-curve, but they should not feel comfortable there at all. They barely got by a typically fading Florida State team after losing star point guard Ty Lawson, who may not be available for the matchup with Duke in Chapel Hill Wednesday night. Tennessee drops back down to the 2-line, despite two road SEC wins. The Vols are joined by UCLA, Georgetown, and newcomer Wisconsin. The Badgers replace Indiana, who drops to the 3-line. The Hoosiers need to right the ship fast, and a win against Northwestern Sunday was a good start. Michigan State, and Xavier are still 3 seeds, and Stanford has jumped up to join them. Remember how I said the Cardinal were among a group of teams that needed to separate themselves to prove they deserved a protected seed? Sweeping the Washington schools this weekend was a good effort, and now the Cardinal are arguably the only team who can deprive UCLA of the Pac-10 regular season title. Washington State drops down to line 4 after being swept by the Bay Area schools. Louisville, Butler, and Texas are holding on to protected seeds at the moment. Pitt fell down to the 5 line. Watch for the Panthers, Drake, Marquette, and UConn to move up in the coming weeks.
Thoughts from the Wachovia Center
I drove up to Philadelphia on Saturday to see the Syracuse-Villanova game. I've seen the Orange twice this season in person and Nova four times (three times at the Old Spice Classic over Thanksgiving). SU is playing with a lot of heart right now, especially considering the personnel woes they face. (Josh Wright must be kicking himself right now for quitting the team.) I moved the Orange up to the 11 line this week, since their profile is still borderline, but looking better. The rough section of the Big East schedule awaits. The only sort of breather between here and MSG for the Orange is a road trip to South Florida next Wednesday. It's murderer's row outside of that.
I dropped Nova this week. Four straight league losses and 13th place in the Big East just isn't good enough, no matter what happened in the non-conference schedule. The Wildcats also have a lot of rough games ahead, starting with a Big Five clash with bracket newcomer St. Joe's tonight.
There are few newcomers this week. Outside of the Hawks and three new auto bids (Rider in the Metro Atlantic, Sacred Heart in the Northeast, and Portland State in the Big Sky), I went local. Maryland and George Mason make their debuts in the bracket. The Terps are starting to come together at the right time and Mason seems to have stopped their inconsistent play. The fact the Patriots beat VCU in their only regular season meeting helps their resume, which includes impressive non-conference wins over Dayton and Kansas State. (Sure they lost to East Carolina and Georgia State, but lots of teams have head-scratching losses this year.)
I do think there is room for movement in the at-large pool. Right now, the SEC and Big 12 both have six teams in, while the ACC and Pac-10 have four and five respectively. I think the chances of these numbers remaining the same in six weeks time is slim. If Arizona State gets hot again, Cal builds on their Washington sweep, and Oregon stops their slide, the Pac-10 could be back up to 6 or 7 bids. Virginia Tech and NC State are improving quickly and could add to the ACC's total. Ohio or Akron could give the MAC its first at-large in an eternity, while Illinois State could get back in if they knock of Drake this week. There's a lot of basketball to be played.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 9
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
Big Ten - 5
Pacific 10 - 5
ACC - 4
Atlantic 10 -4
Colonial - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
George Mason
Maryland
Rider (auto)
Portland State (auto)
Sacred Heart (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Out of the Bracket
Arizona State
Marist (auto)
Massachusetts
Northern Arizona (auto)
Villanova
Wagner (auto)
Last Four In
George Mason
Maryland
Saint Joseph's
Seton Hall
Last Four Out
Arizona State
Illinois State
Massachusetts
Ohio
Next Four Out
Brigham Young
California
NC State
Oregon
Also Considered
Akron
UAB
Boston College
Charlotte
Creighton
Duquesne
Houston
Miami (FL)
Missouri
New Mexico
Providence
San Diego State
Texas Tech
Villanova
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky
Wright State
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
In the future, I'd like to start regular mailbag columns. This will both let me see what you're thinking about the season and will give you some insight as to what I'm looking at (and for) when putting together each week's bracket.
Coming Thursday...the annual Banana Peel Report for one-bid leagues.
Bracket Number Four was a bit easier to put together than last week's edition, but there is a lot of shuffling going on in the world of college basketball that will make the next six weeks exciting and nerve-racking for fans across the country. UNC rejoins Memphis, Kansas, and Duke on the top line of the s-curve, but they should not feel comfortable there at all. They barely got by a typically fading Florida State team after losing star point guard Ty Lawson, who may not be available for the matchup with Duke in Chapel Hill Wednesday night. Tennessee drops back down to the 2-line, despite two road SEC wins. The Vols are joined by UCLA, Georgetown, and newcomer Wisconsin. The Badgers replace Indiana, who drops to the 3-line. The Hoosiers need to right the ship fast, and a win against Northwestern Sunday was a good start. Michigan State, and Xavier are still 3 seeds, and Stanford has jumped up to join them. Remember how I said the Cardinal were among a group of teams that needed to separate themselves to prove they deserved a protected seed? Sweeping the Washington schools this weekend was a good effort, and now the Cardinal are arguably the only team who can deprive UCLA of the Pac-10 regular season title. Washington State drops down to line 4 after being swept by the Bay Area schools. Louisville, Butler, and Texas are holding on to protected seeds at the moment. Pitt fell down to the 5 line. Watch for the Panthers, Drake, Marquette, and UConn to move up in the coming weeks.
Thoughts from the Wachovia Center
I drove up to Philadelphia on Saturday to see the Syracuse-Villanova game. I've seen the Orange twice this season in person and Nova four times (three times at the Old Spice Classic over Thanksgiving). SU is playing with a lot of heart right now, especially considering the personnel woes they face. (Josh Wright must be kicking himself right now for quitting the team.) I moved the Orange up to the 11 line this week, since their profile is still borderline, but looking better. The rough section of the Big East schedule awaits. The only sort of breather between here and MSG for the Orange is a road trip to South Florida next Wednesday. It's murderer's row outside of that.
I dropped Nova this week. Four straight league losses and 13th place in the Big East just isn't good enough, no matter what happened in the non-conference schedule. The Wildcats also have a lot of rough games ahead, starting with a Big Five clash with bracket newcomer St. Joe's tonight.
There are few newcomers this week. Outside of the Hawks and three new auto bids (Rider in the Metro Atlantic, Sacred Heart in the Northeast, and Portland State in the Big Sky), I went local. Maryland and George Mason make their debuts in the bracket. The Terps are starting to come together at the right time and Mason seems to have stopped their inconsistent play. The fact the Patriots beat VCU in their only regular season meeting helps their resume, which includes impressive non-conference wins over Dayton and Kansas State. (Sure they lost to East Carolina and Georgia State, but lots of teams have head-scratching losses this year.)
I do think there is room for movement in the at-large pool. Right now, the SEC and Big 12 both have six teams in, while the ACC and Pac-10 have four and five respectively. I think the chances of these numbers remaining the same in six weeks time is slim. If Arizona State gets hot again, Cal builds on their Washington sweep, and Oregon stops their slide, the Pac-10 could be back up to 6 or 7 bids. Virginia Tech and NC State are improving quickly and could add to the ACC's total. Ohio or Akron could give the MAC its first at-large in an eternity, while Illinois State could get back in if they knock of Drake this week. There's a lot of basketball to be played.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 9
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
Big Ten - 5
Pacific 10 - 5
ACC - 4
Atlantic 10 -4
Colonial - 2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
George Mason
Maryland
Rider (auto)
Portland State (auto)
Sacred Heart (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Out of the Bracket
Arizona State
Marist (auto)
Massachusetts
Northern Arizona (auto)
Villanova
Wagner (auto)
Last Four In
George Mason
Maryland
Saint Joseph's
Seton Hall
Last Four Out
Arizona State
Illinois State
Massachusetts
Ohio
Next Four Out
Brigham Young
California
NC State
Oregon
Also Considered
Akron
UAB
Boston College
Charlotte
Creighton
Duquesne
Houston
Miami (FL)
Missouri
New Mexico
Providence
San Diego State
Texas Tech
Villanova
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky
Wright State
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
In the future, I'd like to start regular mailbag columns. This will both let me see what you're thinking about the season and will give you some insight as to what I'm looking at (and for) when putting together each week's bracket.
Coming Thursday...the annual Banana Peel Report for one-bid leagues.
