Sunday, February 24, 2008
Breaking Down the Bubble
The bubble this year is a mess, so I wanted to give you a look at where we stand with three weeks to go from Selection Sunday. First, I'm going to break down who's in and who's on the bubble. Then, I'll go through each of the bubble teams, rating their chances for actually making it into the field in three weeks time.
Let's start by taking a look at the multi-bid leagues. I've labeled teams that are locks as IN. Teams that are very close are Probable. Your typical bubble teams are Questionable. The few fringe teams that remain are Doubtful.
Multi-Bid Leagues (7)
Atlantic Coast
IN: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson
Probable: None
Questionable: Miami, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Probable: West Virginia
Questionable: Syracuse, Villanova
Doubtful: Seton Hall
Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Probable: None
Questionable: Ohio State
Big 12
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Probable: None
Questionable: Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
Pac 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern California
Probable: Arizona
Questionable: Arizona State, California
Doubtful: Oregon
SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Probable: Mississippi State
Questionable: Arkansas, Florida
Doubtful: Mississippi, Kentucky
West Coast
IN: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Could get a third bid as San Diego is a game back of these two and hosts the conference tournament.
Potential for Multiple Bids in Order of Likelihood for the Conference (10 - current leaders in parentheses)
Now let's take a look at the leagues that could snag more than one bid. The same system (IN, Probable, Questionable, and Doubtful) applies, but I'm only describing a team's at-large chances. They can always take care of business and win their tournament.
Atlantic Ten (Xavier)
IN: Xavier
Questionable: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Dayton, St. Joseph's
Mountain West (Brigham Young)
Probable: BYU
Questionable: UNLV, New Mexico
Conference USA (Memphis)
IN: Memphis
Questionable: UAB, Houston
Mid American (Kent State)
Questionable: Kent State
Missouri Valley (Drake)
IN: Drake
Doubtful: Illinois State
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Questionable: VCU
Doubtful: George Mason
Sun Belt (South Alabama)
Questionable: South Alabama
Doubtful: Western Kentucky
Horizon (Butler)
IN: Butler
Southern (Davidson)
Questionable: Davidson
Summit League (Oral Roberts)
Doubtful: Oral Roberts
One-bid Leagues (14 - current leaders in parentheses): America East (Maryland-Baltimore County), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Portland State), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (Cal State-Northridge), Ivy League (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Austin Peay), Patriot League (American), Southland (Lamar), Southwestern (Alabama State), Western Athletic (Boise State)
Breaking It All Down
Taking into account the one-bid leagues, the league leaders in the conferences that may get multiple bids, and the teams that fall under the IN or Probable categories across the board, 50 of the 65 teams are pretty much set at this stage. We currently have 26 teams who have chances of varying degrees at an at-large bid, and eight others (Davidson, George Mason, Illinois State, Kent State, Oral Roberts, South Alabama, VCU, and Western Kentucky) who have a case, but can make life easier on themselves by winning their conference tournaments. Keep in mind that conference tournament titles for teams like Western Kentucky, George Mason, and Illinois State could reduce the at-large pool further.
I'm going to examine these teams in two groups. First, I'll look at the eight teams from the one-bid leagues, then the bubble teams from the multi-bid leagues. All records and statistics are from Ken Pomeroy's RPI site and only account for games against Division I opponents through Saturday.
Davidson (20-6, Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): 61, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 157, Last 12 Games (L12) 12-0, Road-Neutral Record (RN) 10-4): Only a home date with Appalachian State and road trip to Georgia Southern separate the Wildcats from an unbeaten Southern Conference mark. They probably need to win the conference tournament to be safe, but if they don't, close losses to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, and NC State will keep them in the conversation. Thoroughly dominating Winthrop in their BracketBuster Friday night helped. As a 12-seed in the bracket, they're definitely in the at-large pool. VERDICT: At-large if necessary.
George Mason (19-9, RPI: 70, SOS: 157, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-8): The loss to Ohio in the BracketBuster was fatal to the Patriots at-large hopes. The early Dayton win isn't looking as good as it was, even though the Kansas State victory in Orlando has some value. Losing to East Carolina and Georgia State is unforgivable, especially considering that a run-in of William and Mary and at Northeastern won't provide much of a computer boost. VERDICT: Must win the CAA Tournament
Illinois State (18-8, RPI: 51, SOS: 94, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-7): The Redbirds have a BracketBuster game with Wright State tonight that will only slightly help them if they win it. A loss though would end any at-large hopes. Best wins are at Creighton and at home to SIU, the two teams who they play to end the regular season. Really needed to beat either Indiana or Kent State in November in the Chicago 'burbs for the resume.
VERDICT: Must win the MVC Tournament
Kent State (23-5, RPI: 30, SOS: 135, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): Outside of Drake, the Golden Flashes were th big winners in BracketBusters, winning in a very difficult gym against a highly-touted St. Mary's team. The win more than makes up for the loss (by 1) to Detroit to open the season. Wins over two other teams on this list, Mason and Illinois State put them ahead in the pecking order. Kent State closes the regular season against three teams they've beaten already (at Bowling Green, Miami, and at Akron). If they don't lose early in the MAC tournament, they should be safe.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the MAC semis
Oral Roberts (19-7, RPI: 58, SOS: 144, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-6): The loss to Creighton yesterday ended all at-large hopes for the Golden Eagles. IUPUI (81) is the best win, and they gave that back in Indianapolis. The Oklahoma State (100) win carries a little more catchet after the Cowboys beat Kansas yesterday, but not anywhere near enough.
VERDICT: Must win the Summit League tournament
South Alabama (20-5, RPI: 26, SOS: 110, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): The Jaguars defeated Western Kentucky Thursday to sweep the season series, and move far ahead of the Hilltoppers in the at-large pool. Best non-conference win is a home victory over Mississippi State (41), but their most impressive performance may have been taking Vandy to double OT at Memorial Gym. They also lost to a fading Ole Miss team by 3 on the road. USA hosts the conference tournament, which has been the kiss of death in the Sun Belt of late.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the Sun Belt final.
Virginia Commonwealth (21-6, RPI: 52, SOS: 151, L12: 10-2, RN: 10-5): The Rams got a big BracketBuster win at Akron. If Houston and Maryland keep winning, wins over those two teams will boost VCU's profile. They did lose to fellow bubble boys Miami and Arkansas in the San Juan tournament, which doesn't help them. The improvement in the CAA as a whole has boosted their computer numbers, but closing with UNC-Wilmington and at William and Mary leaves the Rams vulnerable to another stumble.
VERDICT: Must win the CAA tournament
Western Kentucky (20-6, RPI: 55, SOS: 145, L12: 11-1, RN: 8-5): The Toppers really needed a split with South Alabama to have any at-large chance. Their best win is Nebraska (101). Close losses to Gonzaga in Alaska and against Tennessee in Nashville will only go so far.
VERDICT: Must win the Sun Belt tournament
So, the three teams in this group who can feel the most confident about their chances are Davidson, Kent State, and South Alabama. Again, if they win their conference tournaments they'll free up an at-large spot for one of these major conference clubs.
Many times this year, you've heard me say that this year offers up anything from the most mediocre to the outright worst group of bubble teams in history. If you pay attention to most of these teams' records in their last 12 games and their road-neutral marks, you'll understand why.
Atlantic Coast
Maryland (17-11, RPI: 65, SOS: 161, L12: 7-5, RN: 4-6): After losses to Virginia Tech and Miami this week, the win at UNC is starting to fade from memory. Earlier losses to VCU, BC, Ohio, and American are still there to nag the Terps. The good news for Maryland is the homestretch, at Wake, Clemson, and at Virginia, features three winnable games, including one with a likely tourney team and another with a bubble dweller. At 7-6, the Terps still have a chance at a seed that will make it easier for them to make the ACC semifinals.
VERDICT: IN, but barely
Miami (18-7, RPI: 25, SOS: 34, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-6): What a difference a few days make, four straight wins, including home victories against Duke and Maryland have the Hurricanes in good shape. Miami also owns wins over VCU (in San Juan), Clemson, and at Mississippi State that will be benificial. The homestretch in the ACC isn't too terribly taxing either (at Clemson, Virginia, BC-despite an earlier road loss, and at FSU-despite an earlier home loss). They may also slip into a top-four seed in the ACC tournament.
VERDICT: IN, more securely than Maryland
Virginia Tech (16-11, RPI: 63, SOS: 48, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-9): The Hokies have a pulse after beating Maryland (to sweep the season series) and Georgia Tech (to split). Tech closes with BC and Wake at home, followed by a trip to Clemson. Three wins may not be enough here because of a lack of quality non-conference wins.
VERDICT: OUT
Wake Forest (16-8, RPI: 67, SOS: 95, L12: 7-5, RN: 2-7): The Deacons play at UNC tonight, looking to claim another win against a potential one seed. Home wins over Duke and BYU are the best spots on the resume. Close losses at Vandy and Charlotte are OK, but a big loss at Georgia isn't. The road-neutral record honestly leaves a lot to be desires. After the Heels, Wake hosts Maryland, goes to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and wraps things up against NC State. They really need three of four of these.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Atlantic 10
Dayton (17-9, RPI: 33, SOS: 39, L12: 4-8, RN: 4-6)
Massachusetts (18-9, RPI: 32, SOS: 28, L12: 7-5, RN: 8-6)
Rhode Island (20-8, RPI: 42, SOS: 100, L12: 6-6, RN: 9-5)
St. Joseph's (17-8, RPI: 54, SOS: 93, L12: 8-4, RN: 10-5)
Since the Atlantic 14 contenders (outside of Xavier) are doing a nice job of beating each other up, I'm going to skip the individual write-ups and tell you that the A14 will get three teams in. Xavier is a lock, and the two from this group of four who advance farthest in the conference tournament will also make the Big Dance.
VERDICT: Dayton and URI are running out of chances, so UMass and St. Joe's will be IN.
Big East
Seton Hall (16-11, RPI: 73, SOS: 44, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-7): I briefly had the Pirates in, but an overtime win at Rutgers and five straight losses kept them out of the conversation for awhile. A win over DePaul and four winnable games to end the season (at USF, at St. John's, Syracuse, and Rutgers) put them back. Finishing 4-0 may not be enough for them, however.
VERDICT: OUT
Syracuse (17-11, RPI: 46, SOS: 14, L12: 5-7, RN: 4-7): One of my two favorite bubble teams really needed a split against Louisville and Notre Dame, and lost both. Finishing with Pitt, at Seton Hall, and Marquette could result in quality wins. Emphasis there is on "could," since the Orange are running out of gas.
VERDICT: OUT, barring a miracle run in the Big East Tournament, and last I checked G-Mac was playing in Latvia.
Villanova (17-9, RPI: 49, SOS: 54, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-7): At one point, the Wildcats had dropped 6 of 7, including a game to Rutgers and a 22-point loss to St. Joe's. They've now won three straight after beating UConn Saturday. Best non-league win is George Mason in Orlando, though they should've beaten NC State the next night. Their next two, home against Marquette and at Louisville could give them a boost. They'll need it as they wrap up the regular season against USF and at Providence.
VERDICT: OUT
Big Ten
Ohio State (17-10, RPI: 48, SOS: 49, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-7): The Buckeyes two best wins are against bubble dwellers Syracuse (in New York) and Florida (at home). A win against Wisconsin would have been helpful, and now they need to not stumble at Minnesota (no easy task) and take two of three from Indiana (on the road), Purdue, and Michigan State (at home). They should be in the 4-5 game in the Big Ten tourney (probably against the Spartans), so a win there would also help them. Hoosiers and Spartans are ripe for the picking right now.
VERDICT: IN
Big 12
Baylor (17-8, RPI: 37, SOS: 32, L12: 6-6, RN: 7-5): The Bears withstood a record-breaking night by Michael Beasley to get a big win against Kansas State last night. The win over Notre Dame in the Virgin Islands is looking very good at the moment. And there's no shame in close losses to Washington State and Arkansas. At Colorado, Missouri, A&M, and at Texas Tech should result in at least two wins, which would be .500 in the Big 12. This year that should be enough.
VERDICT: IN
Oklahoma (18-9, RPI: 28, SOS: 6, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-6): The Sooners have been a resilient bunch this year with injuries to Blake Griffin and Longar Longar hampering them at times. No shame in losing at Texas, and wins could be plentiful down the stretch (at Nebraska, even if they are resurgent, home to A&M, at Oklahoma State, and home to Missouri).
VERDICT: IN
Texas A&M (19-7, RPI: 44, SOS: 37, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-4): The Aggies are an enigma. They beat Texas in College Station for a marquee win, but were trucked by the Horns in Austin. Ohio State and Oral Roberts are the two best non-league wins. A&M wraps up with Texas Tech at home, road trips to OU and Baylor, and Kansas at home. Yikes. That's a group of motivated teams, but the Aggies should get a split and be safe.
VERDICT: IN
Conference USA
UAB (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Blazers have no bad losses, but their two best wins are over Kentucky (in Louisville) and Houston (at home). While those victories should put UAB ahead of either of those teams and the close loss to Memphis is helpful, this is a team that has a lot of work to do. They wrap up at UTEP, home to Tulane and Tulsa, and at Memphis for a rematch. If they go 3-1 there, they should get the 2 seed in the conference tournament. Reaching the final may be enough.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Houston (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Cougars had many opportunities to keep themselves off the bubble. A win against Kentucky doesn't go as far as it used to, and games dropped against UMass, VCU, UAB, and Arizona would all help right about now. Southern Miss, at East Carolina, UCF, and at UTEP are not games that will help the RPI rise much.
VERDICT: OUT
Mountain West
UNLV (19-6, RPI: 34, SOS: 82, L12: 9-3, RN: 6-4): The Rebels host the Mountain West tournament, so they'll probably end up with the auto bid and consign BYU to the at-large pool (especially when you consider UNLV won the meeting in Las Vegas by 29). However, if that doesn't happen, it would be hard to leave out the second place team in the MWC, which typically gets two teams in. UNLV's best wins are Nevada, BYU, and New Mexico, all at home. The homestretch includes home games with San Diego State, TCU, and Utah, and a road game with New Mexico that may be an elimination game. In the end, I think they're in as the auto bid.
VERDICT: IN
New Mexico (22-6, RPI: 43, SOS: 150, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-5): 22 wins and a decent RPI would typically mean the Lobos would be in good shape to get in. The non-conference slate was soft, however (including a rare home-and-home with Hawai'i). They don't yet own a win over either BYU or UNLV, but they get them both at home on consecutive Tuesday nights. A road trip against Colorado State to end the year won't help the computer numbers at all.
VERDICT: OUT
Pac 10
Arizona State (17-9, RPI: 71, SOS: 78, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-6): The Sun Devils split with the Washington schools this week. Sweeping Arizona and beating Xavier will get the committee's attention, but more importantly, ASU doesn't have any really bad losses: Nebraska's getting better and Illinois was early. The lack of consistency is worrisome, however. A homestand with the LA schools and a road trip to the Oregon schools end the regular season. ASU should earn a split in both, but could sweep UO and OSU.
VERDICT: IN
California (15-9, RPI: 78, SOS: 59, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-3): A win at Stanford tonight would be a big boost. Most of the Bears' marquee wins have been in the league (USC, at Washington State, at Arizona State), and there's little punch in the non-league schedule (Missouri, Nevada, and San Diego State are the three best wins). However, the Bears have no bad losses at all. A closing stretch of the Washington schools at home and the LA schools away is crucial. A 2-2 finish there would put them at 9-9 or 8-10 (depending on the Stanford result tonight). This year, that could be enough. Steal another game from Wazzu and it's a whole new ballgame.
VERDICT: IN
Oregon (15-12, RPI: 57, SOS: 9, L12: 4-8, RN: 5-9): The Ducks currently sit at 6-9 in the Pac 10, but should move to 7-9 after playing at Oregon State next Sunday. UO wraps up with the Arizona schools at home. They'd need a sweep to get to 9-9 in the league. I don't see that happening with the way they've been playing.
VERDICT: OUT
SEC
Arkansas (18-8, RPI: 38, SOS: 45, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-7): The Razorbacks dropped a close one to Kentucky on Saturday, and finish at Alabama, home to Vandy, at Ole Miss, and home to Auburn. They should at least go 2 and 2 in those four. Though wins over Vandy and Ole Miss would make an Arkansas appearance a certainty. 9-7 in the SEC (even in the weaker half) with wins over VCU, Baylor, Florida, Miss. State, and Ole Miss is more than most bubble teams will have.
VERDICT: IN
Florida (20-7, RPI: 59, SOS: 113, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-5): The Gators non-conference schedule hasn't helped them at all, neither does losing to LSU, FSU, or fellow bubble boys Ohio State. However, UF can get a bump at the end of the year. Mississippi State and Tennessee both come to Gainesville, sandwiched between a dangerous road trip to Georgia and another road game at Kentucky. The Gators should do just enough to make it in.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Kentucky (15-10, RPI: 64, SOS: 20, L12: 9-3, RN: 3-6): Look who's here. Look who has a really good shot to finish 12-4 or 11-5 in the SEC. The Wildcats get Ole Miss and Florida at home, with trips to Knoxville and Columbia in between. In the end, I think 11-5 is likely, but with the non-conference stumbles, that won't be enough.
VERDICT: OUT
Mississippi (18-8, RPI: 45, SOS: 71, L12: 5-7, RN: 6-6): It's fitting that the Rebels best non-league win was against Clemson, since they greatly resemble the 2006 or 2007 Tigers. At Kentucky, Bama and Arkansas at home, and at Georgia isn't the way to get to 8-8 in the league, which is what they need to justify a place in the tourney. They'd have to win all four. I don't see that happening.
VERDICT: OUT
To recap, these 12 teams should end up with the last at-large bids.
Arkansas
Arizona State
Baylor
California
Maryland
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Saint Joseph's
Texas A&M
These 3 should also get in; however, they will fall off the board in this order should something happen to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama during Championship Week.
UAB
Florida
Wake Forest
New bracket tomorrow night.
Let's start by taking a look at the multi-bid leagues. I've labeled teams that are locks as IN. Teams that are very close are Probable. Your typical bubble teams are Questionable. The few fringe teams that remain are Doubtful.
Multi-Bid Leagues (7)
Atlantic Coast
IN: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson
Probable: None
Questionable: Miami, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Probable: West Virginia
Questionable: Syracuse, Villanova
Doubtful: Seton Hall
Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Probable: None
Questionable: Ohio State
Big 12
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Probable: None
Questionable: Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma
Pac 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern California
Probable: Arizona
Questionable: Arizona State, California
Doubtful: Oregon
SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Probable: Mississippi State
Questionable: Arkansas, Florida
Doubtful: Mississippi, Kentucky
West Coast
IN: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Could get a third bid as San Diego is a game back of these two and hosts the conference tournament.
Potential for Multiple Bids in Order of Likelihood for the Conference (10 - current leaders in parentheses)
Now let's take a look at the leagues that could snag more than one bid. The same system (IN, Probable, Questionable, and Doubtful) applies, but I'm only describing a team's at-large chances. They can always take care of business and win their tournament.
Atlantic Ten (Xavier)
IN: Xavier
Questionable: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Dayton, St. Joseph's
Mountain West (Brigham Young)
Probable: BYU
Questionable: UNLV, New Mexico
Conference USA (Memphis)
IN: Memphis
Questionable: UAB, Houston
Mid American (Kent State)
Questionable: Kent State
Missouri Valley (Drake)
IN: Drake
Doubtful: Illinois State
Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Questionable: VCU
Doubtful: George Mason
Sun Belt (South Alabama)
Questionable: South Alabama
Doubtful: Western Kentucky
Horizon (Butler)
IN: Butler
Southern (Davidson)
Questionable: Davidson
Summit League (Oral Roberts)
Doubtful: Oral Roberts
One-bid Leagues (14 - current leaders in parentheses): America East (Maryland-Baltimore County), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Portland State), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (Cal State-Northridge), Ivy League (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Austin Peay), Patriot League (American), Southland (Lamar), Southwestern (Alabama State), Western Athletic (Boise State)
Breaking It All Down
Taking into account the one-bid leagues, the league leaders in the conferences that may get multiple bids, and the teams that fall under the IN or Probable categories across the board, 50 of the 65 teams are pretty much set at this stage. We currently have 26 teams who have chances of varying degrees at an at-large bid, and eight others (Davidson, George Mason, Illinois State, Kent State, Oral Roberts, South Alabama, VCU, and Western Kentucky) who have a case, but can make life easier on themselves by winning their conference tournaments. Keep in mind that conference tournament titles for teams like Western Kentucky, George Mason, and Illinois State could reduce the at-large pool further.
I'm going to examine these teams in two groups. First, I'll look at the eight teams from the one-bid leagues, then the bubble teams from the multi-bid leagues. All records and statistics are from Ken Pomeroy's RPI site and only account for games against Division I opponents through Saturday.
Davidson (20-6, Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): 61, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 157, Last 12 Games (L12) 12-0, Road-Neutral Record (RN) 10-4): Only a home date with Appalachian State and road trip to Georgia Southern separate the Wildcats from an unbeaten Southern Conference mark. They probably need to win the conference tournament to be safe, but if they don't, close losses to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, and NC State will keep them in the conversation. Thoroughly dominating Winthrop in their BracketBuster Friday night helped. As a 12-seed in the bracket, they're definitely in the at-large pool. VERDICT: At-large if necessary.
George Mason (19-9, RPI: 70, SOS: 157, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-8): The loss to Ohio in the BracketBuster was fatal to the Patriots at-large hopes. The early Dayton win isn't looking as good as it was, even though the Kansas State victory in Orlando has some value. Losing to East Carolina and Georgia State is unforgivable, especially considering that a run-in of William and Mary and at Northeastern won't provide much of a computer boost. VERDICT: Must win the CAA Tournament
Illinois State (18-8, RPI: 51, SOS: 94, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-7): The Redbirds have a BracketBuster game with Wright State tonight that will only slightly help them if they win it. A loss though would end any at-large hopes. Best wins are at Creighton and at home to SIU, the two teams who they play to end the regular season. Really needed to beat either Indiana or Kent State in November in the Chicago 'burbs for the resume.
VERDICT: Must win the MVC Tournament
Kent State (23-5, RPI: 30, SOS: 135, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): Outside of Drake, the Golden Flashes were th big winners in BracketBusters, winning in a very difficult gym against a highly-touted St. Mary's team. The win more than makes up for the loss (by 1) to Detroit to open the season. Wins over two other teams on this list, Mason and Illinois State put them ahead in the pecking order. Kent State closes the regular season against three teams they've beaten already (at Bowling Green, Miami, and at Akron). If they don't lose early in the MAC tournament, they should be safe.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the MAC semis
Oral Roberts (19-7, RPI: 58, SOS: 144, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-6): The loss to Creighton yesterday ended all at-large hopes for the Golden Eagles. IUPUI (81) is the best win, and they gave that back in Indianapolis. The Oklahoma State (100) win carries a little more catchet after the Cowboys beat Kansas yesterday, but not anywhere near enough.
VERDICT: Must win the Summit League tournament
South Alabama (20-5, RPI: 26, SOS: 110, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): The Jaguars defeated Western Kentucky Thursday to sweep the season series, and move far ahead of the Hilltoppers in the at-large pool. Best non-conference win is a home victory over Mississippi State (41), but their most impressive performance may have been taking Vandy to double OT at Memorial Gym. They also lost to a fading Ole Miss team by 3 on the road. USA hosts the conference tournament, which has been the kiss of death in the Sun Belt of late.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the Sun Belt final.
Virginia Commonwealth (21-6, RPI: 52, SOS: 151, L12: 10-2, RN: 10-5): The Rams got a big BracketBuster win at Akron. If Houston and Maryland keep winning, wins over those two teams will boost VCU's profile. They did lose to fellow bubble boys Miami and Arkansas in the San Juan tournament, which doesn't help them. The improvement in the CAA as a whole has boosted their computer numbers, but closing with UNC-Wilmington and at William and Mary leaves the Rams vulnerable to another stumble.
VERDICT: Must win the CAA tournament
Western Kentucky (20-6, RPI: 55, SOS: 145, L12: 11-1, RN: 8-5): The Toppers really needed a split with South Alabama to have any at-large chance. Their best win is Nebraska (101). Close losses to Gonzaga in Alaska and against Tennessee in Nashville will only go so far.
VERDICT: Must win the Sun Belt tournament
So, the three teams in this group who can feel the most confident about their chances are Davidson, Kent State, and South Alabama. Again, if they win their conference tournaments they'll free up an at-large spot for one of these major conference clubs.
Many times this year, you've heard me say that this year offers up anything from the most mediocre to the outright worst group of bubble teams in history. If you pay attention to most of these teams' records in their last 12 games and their road-neutral marks, you'll understand why.
Atlantic Coast
Maryland (17-11, RPI: 65, SOS: 161, L12: 7-5, RN: 4-6): After losses to Virginia Tech and Miami this week, the win at UNC is starting to fade from memory. Earlier losses to VCU, BC, Ohio, and American are still there to nag the Terps. The good news for Maryland is the homestretch, at Wake, Clemson, and at Virginia, features three winnable games, including one with a likely tourney team and another with a bubble dweller. At 7-6, the Terps still have a chance at a seed that will make it easier for them to make the ACC semifinals.
VERDICT: IN, but barely
Miami (18-7, RPI: 25, SOS: 34, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-6): What a difference a few days make, four straight wins, including home victories against Duke and Maryland have the Hurricanes in good shape. Miami also owns wins over VCU (in San Juan), Clemson, and at Mississippi State that will be benificial. The homestretch in the ACC isn't too terribly taxing either (at Clemson, Virginia, BC-despite an earlier road loss, and at FSU-despite an earlier home loss). They may also slip into a top-four seed in the ACC tournament.
VERDICT: IN, more securely than Maryland
Virginia Tech (16-11, RPI: 63, SOS: 48, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-9): The Hokies have a pulse after beating Maryland (to sweep the season series) and Georgia Tech (to split). Tech closes with BC and Wake at home, followed by a trip to Clemson. Three wins may not be enough here because of a lack of quality non-conference wins.
VERDICT: OUT
Wake Forest (16-8, RPI: 67, SOS: 95, L12: 7-5, RN: 2-7): The Deacons play at UNC tonight, looking to claim another win against a potential one seed. Home wins over Duke and BYU are the best spots on the resume. Close losses at Vandy and Charlotte are OK, but a big loss at Georgia isn't. The road-neutral record honestly leaves a lot to be desires. After the Heels, Wake hosts Maryland, goes to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and wraps things up against NC State. They really need three of four of these.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Atlantic 10
Dayton (17-9, RPI: 33, SOS: 39, L12: 4-8, RN: 4-6)
Massachusetts (18-9, RPI: 32, SOS: 28, L12: 7-5, RN: 8-6)
Rhode Island (20-8, RPI: 42, SOS: 100, L12: 6-6, RN: 9-5)
St. Joseph's (17-8, RPI: 54, SOS: 93, L12: 8-4, RN: 10-5)
Since the Atlantic 14 contenders (outside of Xavier) are doing a nice job of beating each other up, I'm going to skip the individual write-ups and tell you that the A14 will get three teams in. Xavier is a lock, and the two from this group of four who advance farthest in the conference tournament will also make the Big Dance.
VERDICT: Dayton and URI are running out of chances, so UMass and St. Joe's will be IN.
Big East
Seton Hall (16-11, RPI: 73, SOS: 44, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-7): I briefly had the Pirates in, but an overtime win at Rutgers and five straight losses kept them out of the conversation for awhile. A win over DePaul and four winnable games to end the season (at USF, at St. John's, Syracuse, and Rutgers) put them back. Finishing 4-0 may not be enough for them, however.
VERDICT: OUT
Syracuse (17-11, RPI: 46, SOS: 14, L12: 5-7, RN: 4-7): One of my two favorite bubble teams really needed a split against Louisville and Notre Dame, and lost both. Finishing with Pitt, at Seton Hall, and Marquette could result in quality wins. Emphasis there is on "could," since the Orange are running out of gas.
VERDICT: OUT, barring a miracle run in the Big East Tournament, and last I checked G-Mac was playing in Latvia.
Villanova (17-9, RPI: 49, SOS: 54, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-7): At one point, the Wildcats had dropped 6 of 7, including a game to Rutgers and a 22-point loss to St. Joe's. They've now won three straight after beating UConn Saturday. Best non-league win is George Mason in Orlando, though they should've beaten NC State the next night. Their next two, home against Marquette and at Louisville could give them a boost. They'll need it as they wrap up the regular season against USF and at Providence.
VERDICT: OUT
Big Ten
Ohio State (17-10, RPI: 48, SOS: 49, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-7): The Buckeyes two best wins are against bubble dwellers Syracuse (in New York) and Florida (at home). A win against Wisconsin would have been helpful, and now they need to not stumble at Minnesota (no easy task) and take two of three from Indiana (on the road), Purdue, and Michigan State (at home). They should be in the 4-5 game in the Big Ten tourney (probably against the Spartans), so a win there would also help them. Hoosiers and Spartans are ripe for the picking right now.
VERDICT: IN
Big 12
Baylor (17-8, RPI: 37, SOS: 32, L12: 6-6, RN: 7-5): The Bears withstood a record-breaking night by Michael Beasley to get a big win against Kansas State last night. The win over Notre Dame in the Virgin Islands is looking very good at the moment. And there's no shame in close losses to Washington State and Arkansas. At Colorado, Missouri, A&M, and at Texas Tech should result in at least two wins, which would be .500 in the Big 12. This year that should be enough.
VERDICT: IN
Oklahoma (18-9, RPI: 28, SOS: 6, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-6): The Sooners have been a resilient bunch this year with injuries to Blake Griffin and Longar Longar hampering them at times. No shame in losing at Texas, and wins could be plentiful down the stretch (at Nebraska, even if they are resurgent, home to A&M, at Oklahoma State, and home to Missouri).
VERDICT: IN
Texas A&M (19-7, RPI: 44, SOS: 37, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-4): The Aggies are an enigma. They beat Texas in College Station for a marquee win, but were trucked by the Horns in Austin. Ohio State and Oral Roberts are the two best non-league wins. A&M wraps up with Texas Tech at home, road trips to OU and Baylor, and Kansas at home. Yikes. That's a group of motivated teams, but the Aggies should get a split and be safe.
VERDICT: IN
Conference USA
UAB (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Blazers have no bad losses, but their two best wins are over Kentucky (in Louisville) and Houston (at home). While those victories should put UAB ahead of either of those teams and the close loss to Memphis is helpful, this is a team that has a lot of work to do. They wrap up at UTEP, home to Tulane and Tulsa, and at Memphis for a rematch. If they go 3-1 there, they should get the 2 seed in the conference tournament. Reaching the final may be enough.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Houston (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Cougars had many opportunities to keep themselves off the bubble. A win against Kentucky doesn't go as far as it used to, and games dropped against UMass, VCU, UAB, and Arizona would all help right about now. Southern Miss, at East Carolina, UCF, and at UTEP are not games that will help the RPI rise much.
VERDICT: OUT
Mountain West
UNLV (19-6, RPI: 34, SOS: 82, L12: 9-3, RN: 6-4): The Rebels host the Mountain West tournament, so they'll probably end up with the auto bid and consign BYU to the at-large pool (especially when you consider UNLV won the meeting in Las Vegas by 29). However, if that doesn't happen, it would be hard to leave out the second place team in the MWC, which typically gets two teams in. UNLV's best wins are Nevada, BYU, and New Mexico, all at home. The homestretch includes home games with San Diego State, TCU, and Utah, and a road game with New Mexico that may be an elimination game. In the end, I think they're in as the auto bid.
VERDICT: IN
New Mexico (22-6, RPI: 43, SOS: 150, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-5): 22 wins and a decent RPI would typically mean the Lobos would be in good shape to get in. The non-conference slate was soft, however (including a rare home-and-home with Hawai'i). They don't yet own a win over either BYU or UNLV, but they get them both at home on consecutive Tuesday nights. A road trip against Colorado State to end the year won't help the computer numbers at all.
VERDICT: OUT
Pac 10
Arizona State (17-9, RPI: 71, SOS: 78, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-6): The Sun Devils split with the Washington schools this week. Sweeping Arizona and beating Xavier will get the committee's attention, but more importantly, ASU doesn't have any really bad losses: Nebraska's getting better and Illinois was early. The lack of consistency is worrisome, however. A homestand with the LA schools and a road trip to the Oregon schools end the regular season. ASU should earn a split in both, but could sweep UO and OSU.
VERDICT: IN
California (15-9, RPI: 78, SOS: 59, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-3): A win at Stanford tonight would be a big boost. Most of the Bears' marquee wins have been in the league (USC, at Washington State, at Arizona State), and there's little punch in the non-league schedule (Missouri, Nevada, and San Diego State are the three best wins). However, the Bears have no bad losses at all. A closing stretch of the Washington schools at home and the LA schools away is crucial. A 2-2 finish there would put them at 9-9 or 8-10 (depending on the Stanford result tonight). This year, that could be enough. Steal another game from Wazzu and it's a whole new ballgame.
VERDICT: IN
Oregon (15-12, RPI: 57, SOS: 9, L12: 4-8, RN: 5-9): The Ducks currently sit at 6-9 in the Pac 10, but should move to 7-9 after playing at Oregon State next Sunday. UO wraps up with the Arizona schools at home. They'd need a sweep to get to 9-9 in the league. I don't see that happening with the way they've been playing.
VERDICT: OUT
SEC
Arkansas (18-8, RPI: 38, SOS: 45, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-7): The Razorbacks dropped a close one to Kentucky on Saturday, and finish at Alabama, home to Vandy, at Ole Miss, and home to Auburn. They should at least go 2 and 2 in those four. Though wins over Vandy and Ole Miss would make an Arkansas appearance a certainty. 9-7 in the SEC (even in the weaker half) with wins over VCU, Baylor, Florida, Miss. State, and Ole Miss is more than most bubble teams will have.
VERDICT: IN
Florida (20-7, RPI: 59, SOS: 113, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-5): The Gators non-conference schedule hasn't helped them at all, neither does losing to LSU, FSU, or fellow bubble boys Ohio State. However, UF can get a bump at the end of the year. Mississippi State and Tennessee both come to Gainesville, sandwiched between a dangerous road trip to Georgia and another road game at Kentucky. The Gators should do just enough to make it in.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama
Kentucky (15-10, RPI: 64, SOS: 20, L12: 9-3, RN: 3-6): Look who's here. Look who has a really good shot to finish 12-4 or 11-5 in the SEC. The Wildcats get Ole Miss and Florida at home, with trips to Knoxville and Columbia in between. In the end, I think 11-5 is likely, but with the non-conference stumbles, that won't be enough.
VERDICT: OUT
Mississippi (18-8, RPI: 45, SOS: 71, L12: 5-7, RN: 6-6): It's fitting that the Rebels best non-league win was against Clemson, since they greatly resemble the 2006 or 2007 Tigers. At Kentucky, Bama and Arkansas at home, and at Georgia isn't the way to get to 8-8 in the league, which is what they need to justify a place in the tourney. They'd have to win all four. I don't see that happening.
VERDICT: OUT
To recap, these 12 teams should end up with the last at-large bids.
Arkansas
Arizona State
Baylor
California
Maryland
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Saint Joseph's
Texas A&M
These 3 should also get in; however, they will fall off the board in this order should something happen to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama during Championship Week.
UAB
Florida
Wake Forest
New bracket tomorrow night.
