Sunday, February 26, 2006
Two weeks 'til Selection Sunday
Championship week is edging closer and closer. Lots of shuffling in this week's bracket. Plus, we also have some regular season winners in the one-bid leagues (who are at least guaranteed an NIT spot).
Short Summary
Syracuse is back in as a 9 seed (but a true 10 seed, I had to flip them with Michigan to avoid early conference matchups). Arizona and Kentucky are barely hanging in there. They're only seeded as high as they are because of the collapse of the Missouri Valley's challengers. The Valley still has five teams in this week, but that number is looking very dicey. Northern Iowa, Creighton, and Southern Illinois are all struggling. The Salukis would've been out had they not beaten the Panthers yesterday. Watch out for Bradley.
On the top lines, Memphis is back up to a #1, Texas drops to a 2, Pittsburgh to a 3. UNC jumps up to the three line, since they're really a force to be reckoned with at this point of the season. Ohio State is now a 2, Illinois moves up to a 3, and Iowa falls to a 4 (thanks to losses to Minnesota and Illinois). Michigan State is down to a 6 (and I can't see how anyone rates them any higher, especially if they lose to Indiana). None of the four seeds are terribly strong at the moment, Florida needs to beat Alabama badly. UCLA probably needs to win the Pac 10. Iowa needs to be more consistent. GW needs to hope they don't get passed by a power conference team.
UTEP moves into the bracket as the third team in from Conference USA. Houston was making a strong case too, until they lost to the Miners. The chances of four from C-USA gets better and better as teams like the Valley challengers and Utah State struggle. Seton Hall falls out after losing to St. John's (bad) and DePaul (worse).
Last Four In
Southern Illinois
UAB
UTEP
Utah State
First Four Out
Bradley
Colorado
Indiana
Texas A&M
Next Four Out
Hofstra
Florida State
Houston
Seton Hall
Falling Out
Akron
Davidson
Indiana
IUPUI
Lipscomb
Seton Hall
League Breakdown
8 Big East
6 Big Ten
6 SEC
5 Missouri Valley
4 ACC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Conference USA
2 Colonial
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic
Banana Peel List
The Banana Peel List is getting shorter and shorter as teams clinch regular season titles and move into conference tournaments (the exercise that make this whole list pretty much irrelevant). Here are the teams that have clinched their regular-season conference titles:
Atlantic 10 - George Washington
Big Sky - Northern Arizona
Big South - Winthrop
Colonial - George Mason and UNCW tied
Horizon - Milwaukee
Mid-American - Kent State
Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - Bucknell
Southland - Northwestern State
Southern - Georgia Southern and Elon tied
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
West Coast - Gonzaga.
As for the rest...
America East
Albany has a game lead on Binghamton. Great Danes travel to UMBC to wrap up the regular season, while the Bearcats go to Vermont.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb and Belmont are tied for the league lead right now. FAU is a half-game back, but their conference season is over. Belmont hosts ETSU today. Lipscomb hosts Kennesaw State.
Big West
Pacific continues to lead Cal-Irvine by a half game. The Tigers still have a game in hand on the Anteaters.
Ivy Group
Penn leads Princeton by two games with three to play. Quakers are very close to becoming the first team officially in.
Metro Atlantic
Iona and Manhattan are tied atop the league. The regular season will be decided on the Jaspers' home floor tonight.
Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson has a only a one game lead on Central Connecticut State and Monmouth. The Knights lost at Monmouth, and now must play them again in Teaneck on Monday night.
Southwestern
Southern leads Grambling by two games with two left, so they've clinched at least a tie for the title. The two won't meet again unless it's in the SWAC tournament.
Enjoy the week! I hope to be able to post a new projection at midweek (based on work considerations).
CD
Short Summary
Syracuse is back in as a 9 seed (but a true 10 seed, I had to flip them with Michigan to avoid early conference matchups). Arizona and Kentucky are barely hanging in there. They're only seeded as high as they are because of the collapse of the Missouri Valley's challengers. The Valley still has five teams in this week, but that number is looking very dicey. Northern Iowa, Creighton, and Southern Illinois are all struggling. The Salukis would've been out had they not beaten the Panthers yesterday. Watch out for Bradley.
On the top lines, Memphis is back up to a #1, Texas drops to a 2, Pittsburgh to a 3. UNC jumps up to the three line, since they're really a force to be reckoned with at this point of the season. Ohio State is now a 2, Illinois moves up to a 3, and Iowa falls to a 4 (thanks to losses to Minnesota and Illinois). Michigan State is down to a 6 (and I can't see how anyone rates them any higher, especially if they lose to Indiana). None of the four seeds are terribly strong at the moment, Florida needs to beat Alabama badly. UCLA probably needs to win the Pac 10. Iowa needs to be more consistent. GW needs to hope they don't get passed by a power conference team.
UTEP moves into the bracket as the third team in from Conference USA. Houston was making a strong case too, until they lost to the Miners. The chances of four from C-USA gets better and better as teams like the Valley challengers and Utah State struggle. Seton Hall falls out after losing to St. John's (bad) and DePaul (worse).
Last Four In
Southern Illinois
UAB
UTEP
Utah State
First Four Out
Bradley
Colorado
Indiana
Texas A&M
Next Four Out
Hofstra
Florida State
Houston
Seton Hall
Falling Out
Akron
Davidson
Indiana
IUPUI
Lipscomb
Seton Hall
League Breakdown
8 Big East
6 Big Ten
6 SEC
5 Missouri Valley
4 ACC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Conference USA
2 Colonial
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic
Banana Peel List
The Banana Peel List is getting shorter and shorter as teams clinch regular season titles and move into conference tournaments (the exercise that make this whole list pretty much irrelevant). Here are the teams that have clinched their regular-season conference titles:
Atlantic 10 - George Washington
Big Sky - Northern Arizona
Big South - Winthrop
Colonial - George Mason and UNCW tied
Horizon - Milwaukee
Mid-American - Kent State
Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - Bucknell
Southland - Northwestern State
Southern - Georgia Southern and Elon tied
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
West Coast - Gonzaga.
As for the rest...
America East
Albany has a game lead on Binghamton. Great Danes travel to UMBC to wrap up the regular season, while the Bearcats go to Vermont.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb and Belmont are tied for the league lead right now. FAU is a half-game back, but their conference season is over. Belmont hosts ETSU today. Lipscomb hosts Kennesaw State.
Big West
Pacific continues to lead Cal-Irvine by a half game. The Tigers still have a game in hand on the Anteaters.
Ivy Group
Penn leads Princeton by two games with three to play. Quakers are very close to becoming the first team officially in.
Metro Atlantic
Iona and Manhattan are tied atop the league. The regular season will be decided on the Jaspers' home floor tonight.
Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson has a only a one game lead on Central Connecticut State and Monmouth. The Knights lost at Monmouth, and now must play them again in Teaneck on Monday night.
Southwestern
Southern leads Grambling by two games with two left, so they've clinched at least a tie for the title. The two won't meet again unless it's in the SWAC tournament.
Enjoy the week! I hope to be able to post a new projection at midweek (based on work considerations).
CD
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Looking into the crystal ball - 19 February 2006
My friend Keith asked me to put on my Mr. Tony style turban and use my incredible psychic powers (hardy har har) to see what would go down three weeks from today. Here's what I came up with.
The four one seeds will probably stay as they are. You can take any two from Memphis, Texas, and Villanova, but Memphis drops to a 2 because of their conference and lack of substantive tests since January.
Twos and threes are very open. The longer Gonzaga keeps on winning they stay as a 2. West Virginia will crack the 2 line soon and Pitt will drop to a 3.
Tennessee and Florida is huge Wednesday night. If UT wins, I think they'll stay as a 2. If UF wins, while they won't automatically be a two, it could start them on a roll. They're at Alabama, hosting Georgia, and at Kentukcy to close the regular season. Conceivably, UF can go down to a 4, but I think they'll split the difference and stay as a 3.
Where the Big Ten teams will end up is also up in the air. I believe Ohio State will be a three. Iowa will drop to a four and Illinois will stay there. A lot of people like Michigan State, I think they are very overrated. They really deserve a five seed, but will probably get a three or four. The schedule favors Ohio State and Wisconsin to finish 1-2 in the league. However, the Badgers midseason dip in form will move them to a 5 seed. I really, really wanted to move them up a line or two this week, but too many teams are playing well right now. Indiana will fall out of the bracket, Michigan will be an 8 or 9 seed.
Pac 10...one more bad loss and Arizona is out. If they keep winning, they stay in. Unfortunately, they play both Arizona State and Washington State, two teams who give them trouble. Even though their last three are at home, they'll lose one of them to a team they should beat and be out. That opens the door for Stanford, who still plays at Washington and they get UCLA at home. Those are two big chances for the Cardinal. I think they will end up getting the fourth bid out of the Pac 10 over Arizona. Cal will end up with a higher seed than a fading Washington squad.
The Valley is for real folks, and they will get four teams in. Missouri State or Bradley both have a good chance to steal a fifth place, and the Bears will do it. They're the sixth-rated RPI conference. I read this week that normally there would be no argument about the sixth-rated league getting five teams in if it was warranted and there were some middling schools in the top five (ahem, ACC). However, since the phrase "Missouri Valley" is next to the 6 in the conference rankings, people have an issue. No Valley team will be a top four seed when all is said and done though.
Maryland will end up out (at FSU, UNC, and UVa, with Miami at home). GW will fall out of the top four lines (same issue as Memphis, bad conference, the A-10 won't get a second bid unless Temple beats Duke, which won't happen).
Here's a short summary of what I think will shake down on Selection Sunday...
Top Four Seeds
Atlanta: Duke, Gonzaga, Ohio State, UCLA
Oakland: Villanova, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Illinois
Minneapolis: Texas, West Virginia, Florida, NC State
Washington: UConn, Tennessee, Iowa, North Carolina
Last Four In
Stanford will sneak in.
UNCW and Missouri State will take advantage of some major conference stumbles (Maryland and Syracuse).
UAB will get in as C-USA's second team.
First Four Out
Syracuse (the 1-5 stretch before the Louisville win is a killer)
Maryland {The schedule is too much for a team that's struggling.)
Indiana (a fiasco)
Vanderbilt (The Commodores will make a late run in the SEC that will fall short.)
Fire away!
The four one seeds will probably stay as they are. You can take any two from Memphis, Texas, and Villanova, but Memphis drops to a 2 because of their conference and lack of substantive tests since January.
Twos and threes are very open. The longer Gonzaga keeps on winning they stay as a 2. West Virginia will crack the 2 line soon and Pitt will drop to a 3.
Tennessee and Florida is huge Wednesday night. If UT wins, I think they'll stay as a 2. If UF wins, while they won't automatically be a two, it could start them on a roll. They're at Alabama, hosting Georgia, and at Kentukcy to close the regular season. Conceivably, UF can go down to a 4, but I think they'll split the difference and stay as a 3.
Where the Big Ten teams will end up is also up in the air. I believe Ohio State will be a three. Iowa will drop to a four and Illinois will stay there. A lot of people like Michigan State, I think they are very overrated. They really deserve a five seed, but will probably get a three or four. The schedule favors Ohio State and Wisconsin to finish 1-2 in the league. However, the Badgers midseason dip in form will move them to a 5 seed. I really, really wanted to move them up a line or two this week, but too many teams are playing well right now. Indiana will fall out of the bracket, Michigan will be an 8 or 9 seed.
Pac 10...one more bad loss and Arizona is out. If they keep winning, they stay in. Unfortunately, they play both Arizona State and Washington State, two teams who give them trouble. Even though their last three are at home, they'll lose one of them to a team they should beat and be out. That opens the door for Stanford, who still plays at Washington and they get UCLA at home. Those are two big chances for the Cardinal. I think they will end up getting the fourth bid out of the Pac 10 over Arizona. Cal will end up with a higher seed than a fading Washington squad.
The Valley is for real folks, and they will get four teams in. Missouri State or Bradley both have a good chance to steal a fifth place, and the Bears will do it. They're the sixth-rated RPI conference. I read this week that normally there would be no argument about the sixth-rated league getting five teams in if it was warranted and there were some middling schools in the top five (ahem, ACC). However, since the phrase "Missouri Valley" is next to the 6 in the conference rankings, people have an issue. No Valley team will be a top four seed when all is said and done though.
Maryland will end up out (at FSU, UNC, and UVa, with Miami at home). GW will fall out of the top four lines (same issue as Memphis, bad conference, the A-10 won't get a second bid unless Temple beats Duke, which won't happen).
Here's a short summary of what I think will shake down on Selection Sunday...
Top Four Seeds
Atlanta: Duke, Gonzaga, Ohio State, UCLA
Oakland: Villanova, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Illinois
Minneapolis: Texas, West Virginia, Florida, NC State
Washington: UConn, Tennessee, Iowa, North Carolina
Last Four In
Stanford will sneak in.
UNCW and Missouri State will take advantage of some major conference stumbles (Maryland and Syracuse).
UAB will get in as C-USA's second team.
First Four Out
Syracuse (the 1-5 stretch before the Louisville win is a killer)
Maryland {The schedule is too much for a team that's struggling.)
Indiana (a fiasco)
Vanderbilt (The Commodores will make a late run in the SEC that will fall short.)
Fire away!
Bracket Projection for Sunday, 19 February
Shakeups abound in this week's bracket.
Short Summary
Syracuse and Maryland are out, so is Miami, who has pretty much collapsed since their inclusion last week. Cincinnati comes in after their win at Syracuse. They're listed as a 9 seed in the bracket, but they're a true 10, who switched places with Kentucky to prevent early conference rematches. Arkansas also enters as a 12, thanks to their win over Florida.
Gonzaga moves up to a 2 seed, replacing Illinois. The Illini drop to a four, while Iowa and Ohio State are now on the 3 line. It was difficult to shake up the 2 and 3 lines anymore than I did thanks to a whole slew of teams losing yesterday (Pitt, West Virginia, Florida, Tennessee).
Some bubble teams can breathe a little easier now. Alabama's win at Tennessee shows how impressive they've been after losing Chuck Davis. Kansas' demolition of Missouri shows how far the Jayhawks have come in the three weeks since they lost in Columbia. Kentucky's win at South Carolina puts the Wildcats in better position.
Others showed they still have a little work to do. Maryland struggled to beat Georgia Tech at home, not a good omen and a big reason why they're out. Syracuse beat Louisville, but it was too little too late (for this week anyway) after they got blown out by Cincy. Indiana is barely hanging on as an 11. Cal had a good win against Arizona Thursday, then lost to ASU Saturday in double OT. Arizona-Stanford this afternoon could very well be an elimination game (if the Pac 10 tournament wasn't going to be very wide open).
BracketBusters impact
Yesterday's BracketBusters had a little bit of an impact on the bracket, but not as much as I thought. George Mason and Missouri State's wins moved them up. Bucknell losing at Northern Iowa in double OT moved them down, but that's because of other movement in the 7-10 lines. (UNI didn't move up at all, again more of a function of what other teams are doing). Wichita State also wasn't hurt terribly by their home loss to George Mason. Utah State's comeback win over Northwestern State dropped the Demons down a line and kept the Aggies in as an at-large.
Last Four In
Arizona
Arkansas
UAB
UNCW
First Four Out
Colorado
Maryland
Stanford
Syracuse
Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Louisiana Tech
Temple
League Breakdown
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 SEC
5 Missouri Valley
4 ACC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Colonial
2 Conference USA
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic
Banana Peel List
America East
Albany still holds a game and a half lead on Binghamton. The two won't play unless they meet in the conference tournament.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb and Belmont are tied for the league lead right now. Belmont has the automatic bid for the week based on their better RPI. East Tennessee, Gardner-Webb, and Florida Atlantic all are a game back. Watch out for the Bulldogs, who are on a roll, beating ETSU, Belmont, and Lipscomb in the past week.
Atlantic 10
George Washington still has a three game lead on Charlotte. Time is running out on Xavier, Temple, and LaSalle.
Big Sky
Northern Arizona continues to hold a two and a half game lead on Montana. The two won't meet again unless it's in the Big Sky tourney.
Big South
Winthrop has a half-game lead on Birmingham-Southern are tied at the top of the league. The two meet Saturday to close out the regular season and determine the top seed in the Big South tournament.
Big West
Pacific still leads Cal-Irvine by a half game. The Tigers have three games in hand on the Anteaters. The two won't meet again unless it's in Anaheim in the Big West tournament.
Colonial
George Mason took down Wichita State yesterday. Now they have to see if they can carry that momentum into Hempstead for their meeting with Hofstra (2.5 back) Thursday. UNCW is a game behind.
Horizon
Milwaukee leads Butler by only a half-game. Losing to Missouri State killed the Panthers faint at-large hopes. UWM wraps the regular season up Tuesday as they host Detroit. Butler hosts Youngstown State and visits Detroit. It will be a very close finish.
Ivy Group
Penn smoked Princeton on Valentine's day. The Tigers then beat Cornell in 2 OTs before losing to Columbia. Quakers have a two game lead over the Tigers right now.
Metro Atlantic
Iona continues to lead Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.
Mid-American
Akron and Kent State are tied atop the East. Zips have this week's automatic bid thanks to a slighly better overall record. Miami is just a game out. Akron plays in Oxford Wednesday. Miami then travels to Kent on Saturday. Stay tuned.
Mid-Eastern
Delaware State leads Coppin State by two games.
Mid-Continent
IUPUI continues to hold a two game lead on Oral Roberts.
Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson now has a three game lead on Central Connecticut State and Monmouth. Knights play the Hawks twice one week, however.
Ohio Valley
Murray State leads Samford by three and a half games.
Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. The two meet Wednesday in Lewisberg.
Southern
Davidson moves back into a tie for first with Georgia Southern in the South division. Elon leads the North Division with an identical 9-4 mark. The Wildcats and Eagles meet for the South title Tuesday night. Davidson holds the automatic bid for the week thanks to their RPI.
Southland
Northwestern State leads Sam Houston State and McNeese State by three games.
Southwestern
Southern leads Grambling by two games. The two won't meet again unless it's in the SWAC tournament.
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by two games.
West Coast
Gonzaga all but wrapped up the regular season with their win at Loyola Marymount yesterday,
Enjoy the week!
CD
Short Summary
Syracuse and Maryland are out, so is Miami, who has pretty much collapsed since their inclusion last week. Cincinnati comes in after their win at Syracuse. They're listed as a 9 seed in the bracket, but they're a true 10, who switched places with Kentucky to prevent early conference rematches. Arkansas also enters as a 12, thanks to their win over Florida.
Gonzaga moves up to a 2 seed, replacing Illinois. The Illini drop to a four, while Iowa and Ohio State are now on the 3 line. It was difficult to shake up the 2 and 3 lines anymore than I did thanks to a whole slew of teams losing yesterday (Pitt, West Virginia, Florida, Tennessee).
Some bubble teams can breathe a little easier now. Alabama's win at Tennessee shows how impressive they've been after losing Chuck Davis. Kansas' demolition of Missouri shows how far the Jayhawks have come in the three weeks since they lost in Columbia. Kentucky's win at South Carolina puts the Wildcats in better position.
Others showed they still have a little work to do. Maryland struggled to beat Georgia Tech at home, not a good omen and a big reason why they're out. Syracuse beat Louisville, but it was too little too late (for this week anyway) after they got blown out by Cincy. Indiana is barely hanging on as an 11. Cal had a good win against Arizona Thursday, then lost to ASU Saturday in double OT. Arizona-Stanford this afternoon could very well be an elimination game (if the Pac 10 tournament wasn't going to be very wide open).
BracketBusters impact
Yesterday's BracketBusters had a little bit of an impact on the bracket, but not as much as I thought. George Mason and Missouri State's wins moved them up. Bucknell losing at Northern Iowa in double OT moved them down, but that's because of other movement in the 7-10 lines. (UNI didn't move up at all, again more of a function of what other teams are doing). Wichita State also wasn't hurt terribly by their home loss to George Mason. Utah State's comeback win over Northwestern State dropped the Demons down a line and kept the Aggies in as an at-large.
Last Four In
Arizona
Arkansas
UAB
UNCW
First Four Out
Colorado
Maryland
Stanford
Syracuse
Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Louisiana Tech
Temple
League Breakdown
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 SEC
5 Missouri Valley
4 ACC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Colonial
2 Conference USA
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic
Banana Peel List
America East
Albany still holds a game and a half lead on Binghamton. The two won't play unless they meet in the conference tournament.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb and Belmont are tied for the league lead right now. Belmont has the automatic bid for the week based on their better RPI. East Tennessee, Gardner-Webb, and Florida Atlantic all are a game back. Watch out for the Bulldogs, who are on a roll, beating ETSU, Belmont, and Lipscomb in the past week.
Atlantic 10
George Washington still has a three game lead on Charlotte. Time is running out on Xavier, Temple, and LaSalle.
Big Sky
Northern Arizona continues to hold a two and a half game lead on Montana. The two won't meet again unless it's in the Big Sky tourney.
Big South
Winthrop has a half-game lead on Birmingham-Southern are tied at the top of the league. The two meet Saturday to close out the regular season and determine the top seed in the Big South tournament.
Big West
Pacific still leads Cal-Irvine by a half game. The Tigers have three games in hand on the Anteaters. The two won't meet again unless it's in Anaheim in the Big West tournament.
Colonial
George Mason took down Wichita State yesterday. Now they have to see if they can carry that momentum into Hempstead for their meeting with Hofstra (2.5 back) Thursday. UNCW is a game behind.
Horizon
Milwaukee leads Butler by only a half-game. Losing to Missouri State killed the Panthers faint at-large hopes. UWM wraps the regular season up Tuesday as they host Detroit. Butler hosts Youngstown State and visits Detroit. It will be a very close finish.
Ivy Group
Penn smoked Princeton on Valentine's day. The Tigers then beat Cornell in 2 OTs before losing to Columbia. Quakers have a two game lead over the Tigers right now.
Metro Atlantic
Iona continues to lead Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.
Mid-American
Akron and Kent State are tied atop the East. Zips have this week's automatic bid thanks to a slighly better overall record. Miami is just a game out. Akron plays in Oxford Wednesday. Miami then travels to Kent on Saturday. Stay tuned.
Mid-Eastern
Delaware State leads Coppin State by two games.
Mid-Continent
IUPUI continues to hold a two game lead on Oral Roberts.
Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson now has a three game lead on Central Connecticut State and Monmouth. Knights play the Hawks twice one week, however.
Ohio Valley
Murray State leads Samford by three and a half games.
Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. The two meet Wednesday in Lewisberg.
Southern
Davidson moves back into a tie for first with Georgia Southern in the South division. Elon leads the North Division with an identical 9-4 mark. The Wildcats and Eagles meet for the South title Tuesday night. Davidson holds the automatic bid for the week thanks to their RPI.
Southland
Northwestern State leads Sam Houston State and McNeese State by three games.
Southwestern
Southern leads Grambling by two games. The two won't meet again unless it's in the SWAC tournament.
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by two games.
West Coast
Gonzaga all but wrapped up the regular season with their win at Loyola Marymount yesterday,
Enjoy the week!
CD
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Bracket Projection for Sunday, 12 February
The countdown can now begin. We're officially a month away from Selection Sunday. There are lots of changes this week. The BracketBusters next week are really looming large for the usual one-bid leagues, who actually make their presence known in this week's bracket.
Short Summary
There were some changes in my top four lines this week, but nothing earth-shattering. NC State and Iowa switched places. Ohio State fell to a 5 from a 4 and LSU replaced them. The real changes happened at the bottom of the at-large pool and in the 7-10 range. The Missouri Valley now has five teams in, with Missouri State's win at Northern Iowa being the impetus for their inclusion as a 12-seed. Additionally, UNCW makes the Colonial a two-bid league once again. Colorado, Iowa State, and Stanford's struggles allowed more "mid-major" bids this week.
These changes rippled up the bracket as well, with Nevada, Wichita State, and Bucknell getting to the 8 line. George Mason, Creighton, and San Diego State rose to the 9 line.
Syracuse needs to win to stay in the bracket at this point. A loss to St. John's today could knock them out of next week's projection. Cincinnati has a chance to get themselves off the bubble with a win at Pitt. Illinois-Ohio State and West Virginia-Georgetown both have important seeding implications this afternoon.
Last Four In
Syracuse
UAB
Missouri State
UNC Wilmington
First Four Out
Arkansas
Cincinnati
Colorado
Stanford
Next Four Out
Air Force
Florida State
Iowa State
Vanderbilt
League Breakdown
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 ACC
5 Missouri Valley
5 SEC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Colonial
2 Conference USA
2 Western Athletic
Things don't look so rosy for the A-10 and Mountain West who find themselves as new entrants on the Banana Peel list.
America East
Albany now has a game and a half lead on Binghamton. The two won't meet again unless they meet in the conference tournament final.
Atlantic Sun
Belmont has the auto-bid for the wacky A-Sun this week since they have a better RPI than Lipscomb, who is tied with the Bruins in the standings. East Tennessee is a half-game back. The Bucs close the season at Lipscomb and Belmont before hosting the conference tournament. Stay tuned. You haven't heard the last of Matt Doherty's Florida Atlantic or Gardner-Webb either.
Atlantic 10
George Washington has a three game lead on Charlotte. The 49ers were getting serious at-large consideration this week. That was until they lost at the last place team in the ACC, Wake Forest. Xavier, Temple, and LaSalle also have cases, but they also have a lot to do.
Big Sky
Northern Arizona has only one league loss and a two and a half game lead on Montana.
Big South
Winthrop and Birmingham-Southern are tied at the top of the league. Winthrop has the auto bid for the week thanks to a far superior RPI number. A win at Marquette will do that for a team.
Big West
Meet the new boss...same as the old boss. Cal-Irvine lost a thriller at home to Cal Poly last night, paving the way for Pacific to reclaim the top spot. Not a vintage year for the Tigers, who find themselves as a 15 seed this week.
Colonial
George Mason leads UNCW by a game and Hofstra by a game and a half. Patriots play Drexel at mid-week, then travel to Wichita for their BracketBuster. Then they play chasers Hofstra five days later.
Horizon
Milwaukee is back in charge with a two game lead over Butler. The Panthers BracketBuster with Missouri State became all the more interesting with the Bears win at the UNI Dome.
Ivy Group
Penn leads still way below .500 Princeton by a game and Yale and Cornell by two. Quakers and Tigers have two games in hand though.
Metro Atlantic
Iona continues to lead Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.
Mid-American
Akron leapfrogged Kent State this week. Zips remain a game behind in the race. Miami and Ohio still have fading chances.
Mid-Eastern
Delaware State now leads Hampton and Coppin State by two and a half games.
Mid-Continent
IUPUI beat preseason favorite Oral Roberts by five yesterday. Jaguars now have a two game lead on the Golden Eagles.
Mountain West
San Diego State beat Air Force Wednesday, then lost to Utah on Saturday. Aztecs now have a game and a half lead on UNLV and a two game advantage on Air Force and BYU. UNLV lost at the Marriot Center on Saturday. Inopportune losses moved Air Force out of the bracket.
Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson now has a two and a half game lead on Monmouth.
Ohio Valley
Murray State leads Samford by two and a half games.
Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. The two meet a week from Wednesday in Lewisberg.
Southern
This is a league where everyone is beating up on everyone else. Georgia Southern now moves into the top spot and the play-in game. (The word "Southern" gets a lot of use in this week's play-in game.) Elon is tied with the Eagles, but the Phoenix's overall record and RPI keep them out this week.
Southland
Northwestern State leads Sam Houston State, Lamar, and McNeese State by two and a half games.
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by two and a half games.
West Coast
Gonzaga leads Loyola Marymount by a game and a half.
Enjoy the week!
CD
Short Summary
There were some changes in my top four lines this week, but nothing earth-shattering. NC State and Iowa switched places. Ohio State fell to a 5 from a 4 and LSU replaced them. The real changes happened at the bottom of the at-large pool and in the 7-10 range. The Missouri Valley now has five teams in, with Missouri State's win at Northern Iowa being the impetus for their inclusion as a 12-seed. Additionally, UNCW makes the Colonial a two-bid league once again. Colorado, Iowa State, and Stanford's struggles allowed more "mid-major" bids this week.
These changes rippled up the bracket as well, with Nevada, Wichita State, and Bucknell getting to the 8 line. George Mason, Creighton, and San Diego State rose to the 9 line.
Syracuse needs to win to stay in the bracket at this point. A loss to St. John's today could knock them out of next week's projection. Cincinnati has a chance to get themselves off the bubble with a win at Pitt. Illinois-Ohio State and West Virginia-Georgetown both have important seeding implications this afternoon.
Last Four In
Syracuse
UAB
Missouri State
UNC Wilmington
First Four Out
Arkansas
Cincinnati
Colorado
Stanford
Next Four Out
Air Force
Florida State
Iowa State
Vanderbilt
League Breakdown
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 ACC
5 Missouri Valley
5 SEC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Colonial
2 Conference USA
2 Western Athletic
Things don't look so rosy for the A-10 and Mountain West who find themselves as new entrants on the Banana Peel list.
America East
Albany now has a game and a half lead on Binghamton. The two won't meet again unless they meet in the conference tournament final.
Atlantic Sun
Belmont has the auto-bid for the wacky A-Sun this week since they have a better RPI than Lipscomb, who is tied with the Bruins in the standings. East Tennessee is a half-game back. The Bucs close the season at Lipscomb and Belmont before hosting the conference tournament. Stay tuned. You haven't heard the last of Matt Doherty's Florida Atlantic or Gardner-Webb either.
Atlantic 10
George Washington has a three game lead on Charlotte. The 49ers were getting serious at-large consideration this week. That was until they lost at the last place team in the ACC, Wake Forest. Xavier, Temple, and LaSalle also have cases, but they also have a lot to do.
Big Sky
Northern Arizona has only one league loss and a two and a half game lead on Montana.
Big South
Winthrop and Birmingham-Southern are tied at the top of the league. Winthrop has the auto bid for the week thanks to a far superior RPI number. A win at Marquette will do that for a team.
Big West
Meet the new boss...same as the old boss. Cal-Irvine lost a thriller at home to Cal Poly last night, paving the way for Pacific to reclaim the top spot. Not a vintage year for the Tigers, who find themselves as a 15 seed this week.
Colonial
George Mason leads UNCW by a game and Hofstra by a game and a half. Patriots play Drexel at mid-week, then travel to Wichita for their BracketBuster. Then they play chasers Hofstra five days later.
Horizon
Milwaukee is back in charge with a two game lead over Butler. The Panthers BracketBuster with Missouri State became all the more interesting with the Bears win at the UNI Dome.
Ivy Group
Penn leads still way below .500 Princeton by a game and Yale and Cornell by two. Quakers and Tigers have two games in hand though.
Metro Atlantic
Iona continues to lead Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.
Mid-American
Akron leapfrogged Kent State this week. Zips remain a game behind in the race. Miami and Ohio still have fading chances.
Mid-Eastern
Delaware State now leads Hampton and Coppin State by two and a half games.
Mid-Continent
IUPUI beat preseason favorite Oral Roberts by five yesterday. Jaguars now have a two game lead on the Golden Eagles.
Mountain West
San Diego State beat Air Force Wednesday, then lost to Utah on Saturday. Aztecs now have a game and a half lead on UNLV and a two game advantage on Air Force and BYU. UNLV lost at the Marriot Center on Saturday. Inopportune losses moved Air Force out of the bracket.
Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson now has a two and a half game lead on Monmouth.
Ohio Valley
Murray State leads Samford by two and a half games.
Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. The two meet a week from Wednesday in Lewisberg.
Southern
This is a league where everyone is beating up on everyone else. Georgia Southern now moves into the top spot and the play-in game. (The word "Southern" gets a lot of use in this week's play-in game.) Elon is tied with the Eagles, but the Phoenix's overall record and RPI keep them out this week.
Southland
Northwestern State leads Sam Houston State, Lamar, and McNeese State by two and a half games.
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by two and a half games.
West Coast
Gonzaga leads Loyola Marymount by a game and a half.
Enjoy the week!
CD
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Bracket Projection for Super Bowl Sunday
This week's bracket further reinforces my notion that the science of bracketology is a lot like those Sudoku puzzles that suddenly became popular while I wasn't paying any attention. The Big East and Big Ten are proving to be very hard to fit into a proper bracket while fulfilling as many of the NCAA's bracket integrity rules as possible. The other major problem I'm discovering at the moment is that there are a lot of potential first and second round matchups I have to bracket around, so as to avoid regular season rematches.
Here's the link to the bracket.
Short Summary
There was a change on the top line late last night. Sorry Illinois, if you can't beat Penn State at home, you must temporarily forfeit your one seed. My friend Sam asked me if UF would move up with the home win over Kentucky. In a word, "No." Texas now takes the fourth one seed. Tennessee and Iowa jumped onto the the third line, while Ohio State dropped to the fourth. George Washington is a new fourth seed as well. I was impressed with their win at Xavier Thursday night. It was the second time I'd been able to watch them after a road win at Charlotte.
Kansas is back in. The seven seed line now looks like it could be a final four on its own. KU, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maryland.
Last Four In
Air Force
Cincinnati
Utah State
Wichita State
First Four Out
Alabama
Iowa State
Miami (Florida)
Nebraska
Next Four Out
Arkansas
Stanford
Temple
Virginia
Other Teams Who Fell Out This Week
Vanderbilt (Commodores are looking less and less tournament worthy. They're lucky to have most of the SEC contenders visiting Memorial Gym in the second half of the season.)
League Breakdown
9 Big East
7 Big Ten
5 ACC
4 Big 12
4 Missouri Valley
4 Pac-10
4 SEC
2 Atlantic 10
2 Conference USA
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic
As always, the traditional one-bid leagues jockeying for league tournament position (except for the Ancient Eight)...which brings me to this week's Banana Peel list.
America East
Albany now has a full two game lead on the Binghamton Bearcats. However, the campus formerly known as Harpur College has two games in hand. They'll try to pick up some ground today as they entertain Maine.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb has the auto-bid for this week, but they have no shortage of pursuers. East Tennessee State, Belmont, and Florida Atlantic are all a half-game back.
Big Sky
Northern Arizona remains unbeaten and owns a two and a half game lead on both Montana and Montana State.
Big South
Winthrop dropped a 14-point decision to Coastal Carolina Saturday. That moved the Eagles a game behind Birmingham-Southern.
Big West
UC-Irvine still leads Pacific by two games; however, the Tigers have two games in hand.
Colonial
George Mason beat UNC Wilmington Saturday night to remain in first. The Seahawks remain a game back. Hofstra is a game and a half back. The Flying Pride of Dutchmen (too many nicknames) also have a game in hand. VCU, ODU, and Northeastern are all two games back.
Horizon
Last week I said,
"Milwaukee is running away and hiding."
Not so much anymore, with back-to-back losses to Wright State and Butler. The Bulldogs are now just a game back with two in hand.
Ivy Group
Penn remains unbeaten and is leading 5-12 Princeton, Harvard, and Cornell by a game. Penn and Princeton have played four league games. The Crimson and Big Red have played six.
Metro Atlantic
Iona still leads Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.
Mid-American
Kent State jumped ahead of Akron this week. Zips remain a game behind in the race, while Miami is a game and a half back.
Mid-Eastern
Delaware State finally lost last night to a below-average South Carolina State team. Florida A&M, Coppin State, and Hampton are all two games back.
Mid-Continent
Preseason favorite Oral Roberts has almost caught IUPUI. Jags lead by a half-game and have a game in hand on the Golden Eagles.
Northeast
Another week, another leader in the NEC. This week 2005 champ Fairleigh Dickinson is on top. Central Connecticut State and Monmouth are a game back. Robert Morris and Mount Saint Mary's are two behind.
Ohio Valley
Murray State beat Samford pretty easily during the week to move to the top of the league. Bulldogs are still only a game back.
Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. Engineering Mountain Hawks (another school with too many nicknames, be glad Auburn's not involved here) have a game in hand.
Southern
Elon still is on top, thanks to Davidson's loss to Western Carolina Saturday. Georgia Southern, College of Charleston, and Davidson are all a game behind the Phoenix. Western Carolina and Wofford are two back.
Southland
Northwestern State leads McNeese State by a game and a half and Sam Houston State by two. McNeese has a game in hand.
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by a game.
West Coast
Gonzaga leads resurgent Loyola Marymount by two games.
Western Athletic
Two bids this week for the WAC. Utah State beat Louisiana Tech, knocking the Bulldogs out of the bracket. Utah State got one of the last at-large places, while Nevada picked up the auto-bid when they beat New Mexico State and moved into first place.
As always, thoughts and feedback are welcome.
CD
Here's the link to the bracket.
Short Summary
There was a change on the top line late last night. Sorry Illinois, if you can't beat Penn State at home, you must temporarily forfeit your one seed. My friend Sam asked me if UF would move up with the home win over Kentucky. In a word, "No." Texas now takes the fourth one seed. Tennessee and Iowa jumped onto the the third line, while Ohio State dropped to the fourth. George Washington is a new fourth seed as well. I was impressed with their win at Xavier Thursday night. It was the second time I'd been able to watch them after a road win at Charlotte.
Kansas is back in. The seven seed line now looks like it could be a final four on its own. KU, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maryland.
Last Four In
Air Force
Cincinnati
Utah State
Wichita State
First Four Out
Alabama
Iowa State
Miami (Florida)
Nebraska
Next Four Out
Arkansas
Stanford
Temple
Virginia
Other Teams Who Fell Out This Week
Vanderbilt (Commodores are looking less and less tournament worthy. They're lucky to have most of the SEC contenders visiting Memorial Gym in the second half of the season.)
League Breakdown
9 Big East
7 Big Ten
5 ACC
4 Big 12
4 Missouri Valley
4 Pac-10
4 SEC
2 Atlantic 10
2 Conference USA
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic
As always, the traditional one-bid leagues jockeying for league tournament position (except for the Ancient Eight)...which brings me to this week's Banana Peel list.
America East
Albany now has a full two game lead on the Binghamton Bearcats. However, the campus formerly known as Harpur College has two games in hand. They'll try to pick up some ground today as they entertain Maine.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb has the auto-bid for this week, but they have no shortage of pursuers. East Tennessee State, Belmont, and Florida Atlantic are all a half-game back.
Big Sky
Northern Arizona remains unbeaten and owns a two and a half game lead on both Montana and Montana State.
Big South
Winthrop dropped a 14-point decision to Coastal Carolina Saturday. That moved the Eagles a game behind Birmingham-Southern.
Big West
UC-Irvine still leads Pacific by two games; however, the Tigers have two games in hand.
Colonial
George Mason beat UNC Wilmington Saturday night to remain in first. The Seahawks remain a game back. Hofstra is a game and a half back. The Flying Pride of Dutchmen (too many nicknames) also have a game in hand. VCU, ODU, and Northeastern are all two games back.
Horizon
Last week I said,
"Milwaukee is running away and hiding."
Not so much anymore, with back-to-back losses to Wright State and Butler. The Bulldogs are now just a game back with two in hand.
Ivy Group
Penn remains unbeaten and is leading 5-12 Princeton, Harvard, and Cornell by a game. Penn and Princeton have played four league games. The Crimson and Big Red have played six.
Metro Atlantic
Iona still leads Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.
Mid-American
Kent State jumped ahead of Akron this week. Zips remain a game behind in the race, while Miami is a game and a half back.
Mid-Eastern
Delaware State finally lost last night to a below-average South Carolina State team. Florida A&M, Coppin State, and Hampton are all two games back.
Mid-Continent
Preseason favorite Oral Roberts has almost caught IUPUI. Jags lead by a half-game and have a game in hand on the Golden Eagles.
Northeast
Another week, another leader in the NEC. This week 2005 champ Fairleigh Dickinson is on top. Central Connecticut State and Monmouth are a game back. Robert Morris and Mount Saint Mary's are two behind.
Ohio Valley
Murray State beat Samford pretty easily during the week to move to the top of the league. Bulldogs are still only a game back.
Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. Engineering Mountain Hawks (another school with too many nicknames, be glad Auburn's not involved here) have a game in hand.
Southern
Elon still is on top, thanks to Davidson's loss to Western Carolina Saturday. Georgia Southern, College of Charleston, and Davidson are all a game behind the Phoenix. Western Carolina and Wofford are two back.
Southland
Northwestern State leads McNeese State by a game and a half and Sam Houston State by two. McNeese has a game in hand.
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by a game.
West Coast
Gonzaga leads resurgent Loyola Marymount by two games.
Western Athletic
Two bids this week for the WAC. Utah State beat Louisiana Tech, knocking the Bulldogs out of the bracket. Utah State got one of the last at-large places, while Nevada picked up the auto-bid when they beat New Mexico State and moved into first place.
As always, thoughts and feedback are welcome.
CD
