BracketDobber

New site

2008-12-07T14:08:00.001-05:00

I have my own domain now. This season, and in the future, you can find me at

bracketdobber.net

Battle of Ones

2008-04-05T17:32:00.003-04:00

For the first time ever, all four number one seeds have made it to the Final Four site. Hopefully, the matchups will reflect the parity in the seed numbers. We have two teams who've been to this stage frequently of late, UCLA and North Carolina, and two who are making their first trips under their current coaches, Memphis and Kansas. Talent-wise, the advantage goes to Memphis (if only because UCLA's bench isn't as deep) and barely to UNC. In terms of coaching, UCLA and Carolina. In terms of experience, UNC and UCLA. I think experience and coaching are going to go a long way at this stage since the four teams are so even. My picks for tonight are the Heels and Bruins.

Elite Eight Picks

2008-03-29T15:48:00.002-04:00

On my original bracket, I went 6-2 in the regional semifinals (with Georgetown and Duke already eliminated). My picks here went 8-0, however. For my regional final picks, I haven't changed my mind on any of my three picks that are still alive, North Carolina, UCLA, and Texas. For the Midwest, I'll have to take Kansas over Davidson. Sure, Bill Self is still coaching the Jayhawks, but they're the only team the Wildcats have faced so far that can beat them in the athleticism department. Gus Johnson is right when he says KU "looks like an NBA team," especially since his other employer (the Knicks) would probably lose to Kansas at this point. I wouldn't be shocked if Stephen Curry shoots Davidson to the Alamodome, however.

Onto the Regionals...

2008-03-26T18:44:00.002-04:00

I'm pretty happy with the young Gators pulling out a huge win in the desert last night to make it to New York. On the other hand, I'm still stunned by the 26-point el foldo act the Orange pulled immediately before. The only good thing about that is that I'm not faced with watching a UF-SU semifinal. I can now cheer wholeheartedly for the Gators to beat UMass.

As for the big tournament, I needed to pull the trigger on some more upsets. I also need to put Clemson on my Kansas/Pitt list of teams to never pick. I was thinking that if Syracuse had beaten Villanova in the Big East tournament rubber match and made the field, they would probably have also made the Sweet Sixteen if placed in that Tampa pod. The Orange-Tiger game would've been an epic watch, which team would manage to choke it away first?

My first weekend record of 28-20 stinks. I lost one Final Four team (Georgetown) and one Elite Eight squad (Duke).

Round 1: 20-12 (22-10 last year)
Round 2: 8-8 (12-4 last year)

As for this year's regional semis, here are my updated picks.

Thursday - Charlotte
North Carolina over Washington State One thing is for sure, the Heels aren't going to score 100 plus in this one. The Cougs just won't have enough offense to pull it out. Plus, the crowd will be a factor working against them.

Louisville over Tennessee I picked Butler to knock off the Vols, and they came tantalizingly close to making me look smart for the first time this tournament. I then picked the Cards to take out the Bulldogs. The Vols have point guard issues and Chris Lofton has a minor leg injury, while the Cards have for the most part rolled through the last month. A more disciplined Louisville squad further exposes the Vols' shortcomings to move on.

Thursday - Phoenix
Xavier over West Virginia I was very tempted to take the Mountaineers here, since this is a fairly even matchup talent-wise. The only problem is the fact that WVU fouls A LOT, and Xavier does a good job of making their free throws.

UCLA over Western Kentucky The only chance the Hilltoppers have is for Courtney Lee, Tyrone Brazelton, and A.J. Slaughter to hit about 30 threes. Kevin Love creates an matchup problem that WKU won't have an answer for. Plus, if all else fails for the Bruins, they'll probably have the refs on their side. I don't see any close calls handing them victory, however.

Friday - Detroit
Davidson over Wisconsin I may be a little nuts for picking this one. I just think that if the Wildcats can handle Georgetown, they can also handle the Badgers. Stephen Curry will probably be double or triple-teamed all night, but he'll still get his shot, and his teammates are going to get opportunities because of all the attention focused on the Babyfaced Assassin. The only concern I have is that Wisky will have had five days to prepare, and they already are one of the best defensive teams left.

Kansas over Villanova Kansas has way too much of everything for the Wildcats. Plus, this Nova team is shooting far better than it did during the season, which can't last (and probably won't heading into the bad shooting environment they'll encounter at Ford Field).

Friday - Houston
Texas over Stanford Two keys for the Longhorns: superior guard play and smarter defense on the Lopez twins than Marquette played. Of course, I predicted Marquette would beat the Cardinal based on guard play, but D.J. Augustin is otherworldly for a college point guard and Texas does a great job of holding onto the ball at each position.

Memphis over Michigan State Tom Izzo could try the "Hack a Tiger" strategy here. The Spartans chances will hinge on how well their outside shooters adjust to shooting in the dome environment. It shouldn't matter, as the Tigers overall athleticism and skill will get them to another regional final, however.

Elite Eight picks Saturday.

Pick time

2008-03-19T17:36:00.003-04:00

I was out watching the Syracuse NIT game last night, since my cable company still deprives us of four-letter U. Thankfully, the Gator game tonight is on a station I actually get.

Well, tomorrow is the big day. It's time to look at my picks for this year's bracket. The hope is I can do as well with my game picks as I did with selecting the field. (Ha ha) I don't think lightning will strike twice, but I'm going to give it a go. Here's a link to the completed bracket.

However, before we take a look at 2008, let's take a look back at 2007.

First round: 22-10 (.688 - marginally better than 2006)
Second round: 12-4 (.750 - a game better than 2006)
Regional Semis: 7-1 (.875 far better than 2006's .250. I only missed Texas A&M.)
Regional Finals: 3-1 (.750 - far better again than 2006's .250)
Rest of the way: 2-1 (.667 - I needed a Gators-Georgetown final. Let that be a lesson to you readers, never pick a team you despise when you need them to win.)
Total tournament: 46-17 (.730, much better than the .540 I posted in 2006)

Let's move on to 2008.

EAST
Round One
North Carolina
Indiana over Arkansas. In a battle of two teams who's mental state can be questioned at the moment, take the team with superior talent.
George Mason over Notre Dame, in a close one. Luke Harangody will have his hands full with Will Thomas. Patriots need to make sure they put a body on Kyle McAlarney, however.
Washington State over Winthrop, also in a close one.
Oklahoma over St. Joseph's This game could go either way, but I like the Sooners since they're healthy, especially inside.
Louisville
Butler over South Alabama Everyone is making a big deal about the Jaguars having a home court advantage in this one, but I think that's overblown. Butler is too good of a team to let that get into their heads.
Tennessee

Round Two
North Carolina again
Washington State ensures it won't be a repeat of 2006 for the Patriots
Louisville
Butler over Tennessee, as the Vols lack of fundamentals will be exposed by a Bulldog team that's better than the one that played UF close last year.

Regional Semifinals
North Carolina over Wazzu
Louisville ends Butler's run, gaining revenge for 2003 in Birmingham.

Regional Final
North Carolina over Louisville, though I'd be tempted to take the Cardinals if it wasn't in Charlotte.

MIDWEST
Round One
Kansas
Kent State over UNLV in one of the most intriguing matchups in the tournament.
Clemson over Villanova in a game that can go either way.
Vanderbilt will get a scare out of Siena, but survive.
USC over Kansas State in the battle of Mayo vs. Beasley. O.J. has too much healthy talent surrounding him.
Wisconsin will survive Fullerton.
Davidson over Gonzaga. The fact it's a 9:25 Pacific time start in the Wildcats backyard is bound to throw the Bulldogs.
Georgetown

Round Two
Kansas since they've done well against the MAC this year.
Clemson will have too much for a Vandy team that doesn't do well away from Memorial Gym.
Southern Cal's talent is too much for Wisconsin.
Georgetown ends Davidson's hopes.

Regional Semifinals
Kansas over Clemson
Georgetown over USC based on their experience.

Regional Final
Georgetown over Kansas. I'm picking against the Jayhawks until a Bill Self-coached team wins a game that matters.

WEST
Round One
UCLA
BYU over a very inconsistent Texas A&M team.
Western Kentucky uses the best player on the court, Courtney Lee, to get by Drake.
Connecticut over San Diego
Baylor over Purdue, even though the Boilers do pretty well against guard-oriented teams. The Bears guards are just speedier than anything they've seen.
Xavier ends Georgia's miracle run
Arizona has something to prove and a ton of talent, so they dispatch overseeded WVU.
Duke

Round Two
UCLA as the Bruins are sick of seeing the Cougars after two football meetings this year.
UConn
Xavier gets by Baylor
Duke wins an epic battle with Arizona.

Regional Semifinals
UCLA over Connecticut
Duke over Xavier

Regional Final
UCLA beats Duke based on their interior play.

SOUTH
Round One
Memphis
Mississippi State over the overseeded Oregon Ducks.
Temple knocks an inconsistent Michigan State team out.
Pitt survives Oral Roberts' inside-outside game.
Marquette over Kentucky, provided they shoot better than they did at this stage last year.
Stanford over Cornell in the SAT Bowl
St. Mary's over a seriously overseeded Miami squad, the same way Winthrop beat the Canes, from the perimeter. Makes me glad Syracuse doesn't play the Gaels.
Texas

Round Two
Memphis struggles with Miss. State, but advances.
Pitt barely over Temple.
Marquette's guards mean a win over Stanford. (Think the Louisville game last year, only not as much of a blowout.)
Texas over St. Mary's in the teams' second meeting of the year.

Regional Semifinals
Memphis over Pitt. See my comments on Kansas above. The Panthers have yet to prove to me they can get past this stage.
Texas over Marquette.

Regional Final
Texas uses their de facto home court advantage to get by Memphis.

National Semifinals
UNC over Georgetown
Texas over UCLA. The Longhorns beat them once, and that was at Pauley. Just think what they could do in San Antonio.

National Final
Texas over UNC. The Tar Heels just are missing something defensively. The Longhorns already own wins over 2 one seeds and a two this season. Their experience from those matchups and the San Antonio crowd will push them to victory.

E-mail me with your comments and questions.

Let's Review

2008-03-17T18:50:00.006-04:00

Last year at this time I wrote, "This season gave the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee a selection and seeding process that involved more challenges than ever before. Unbalanced scheduling in the major conferences produced convoluted conference races and logjams everywhere."

It seems that in the span of one year, little has changed. The names may be a bit different (Arizona State instead of Syracuse, for example), and some conference tournament results ultimately shrunk the bubble. However, the selection committee's inconsistencies again leave basketball fans with a lot of questions.

Had Georgia not won the SEC tournament late Sunday afternoon, I would've had Arizona State as my last team in. Why did I drop them and not Villanova or Oregon? Well, I didn't like the Sun Devils 5-10 record to end the season. The committee's official reasons for leaving them out - their high RPI and strength of schedule. However, teams like St. Mary's and South Alabama got at-large bids with worse SOS numbers and the committee's dedication to the RPI didn't extend to tomorrow night's opening round matchup.

The committee also decided to have the mid-majors cannibalize each other yet again. There are four first round matchups between mid-major teams that all would've had a good chance to defeat major conference teams (UNLV-Kent State, Drake-Western Kentucky, Gonzaga-Davidson, Butler-South Alabama). Gonzaga and Butler will have to try to win in their opponents' backyards. Remember though, the last time the tournament was in Birmingham, Butler advanced to the Sweet Sixteen out of that site.

More about matchups when I make my picks Wednesday, I'll now review the seeds line by line.

1 seeds: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas I seriously spent most of Sunday with Tennessee in Kansas's spot. I changed my mind after watching the first half of the Big 12 championship game. My thought was there was no way the winner of that highly competitive game was going to be on the 2 line. Turns out I was correct.
My picks: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas

2 seeds: Georgetown, Duke, Texas, Tennessee I had Wisconsin here instead of the Hoyas, figuring that even in a down year, winning both the regular season and tournament Big Ten titles would carry some weight for the Badgers. I don't understand why Georgetown isn't the 2 in the East instead of Tennessee. Again, this is an example of the committee being inconsistent with the RPI. Why reward the top RPI and SOS team with not only a 2 seed, but the worst two seed, and the potential of a matchup with Carolina in their backyard that goes with it?
My picks: Tennessee, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin

3 seeds: Louisville, Stanford, Xavier, Wisconsin Other than flipping Wisconsin and Georgetown, the committee did a good job with the 3 line. Xavier could've moved down to the 4 line after dropping two games to St. Joe's in a week and a half, but their season's worth of work kept them here. However, if Indiana is going to drop precipitously based on their late season performance, I was a bit surprised the Musketeers' play with an injured Drew Lavender didn't cost them.
My picks: Georgetown, Stanford, Louisville, Xavier

4 seeds: Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Washington State I thought Vandy wasn't good enough away from home to get a protected seed. I also thought that Washington State had underachieved at an almost Michigan State-like level this season. Pitt's really starting to roll since Levance Fields' return, so this seeding is completely deserved after winning the Big East tournament the hard way.
My picks: Pittsburgh, Drake, Connecticut, Notre Dame

5 seeds: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Drake, Clemson The Tigers were the only team here that I had spot on, but the other three were within a line. Remember that 5 seeds are also technically protected, so I was stunned to see an inconsistent Michigan State team this high. Notre Dame's spotty road/neutral record and Drake's non-conference schedule probably played a role with why they're here instead of line 5. However, neither team is at a huge geographic disadvantage in their pods (especially the Irish, with their huge national following).
My picks: Butler, Clemson, Indiana, Vanderbilt

6 seeds: Southern Cal, Purdue, Marquette, Oklahoma The only team I have a beef with here is Oklahoma, another team who is terribly inconsistent. I really thought they'd be at least a line lower after getting shellacked by Texas twice in their last 7, along with that 27-point loss at home to Texas A&M a couple of weeks back. (I had them as an 8.) Purdue would have been higher had they not dropped their Big Ten quarterfinal to Illinois.
My picks: Southern Cal, Marquette, Michigan State, Purdue

7 seeds: Butler, Miami, West Virginia, Gonzaga Butler is probably here because their non-conference wins didn't really pan out as really good wins. Still, they should be seeded ahead of Oklahoma based on their finishing kick. As for Miami, 9-9 in ACC games and one non-conference win against a tourney team is worthy of a 7 seed? West Virginia's record away from Morgantown should've kept them lower.
My picks: Washington State, Gonzaga, UNLV, Texas A&M

8 seeds: Indiana, Mississippi State, BYU, UNLV Indiana is another headscratcher. Sure they've struggled under Dan Dakich, but this team's overall body of work is worthy of more than this. The others are all close to where they should be.
My picks: Oklahoma, West Virginia, BYU, Arkansas

9 seeds: Kent State, Texas A&M, Oregon, Arkansas Even though I had A&M higher, the 8/9 game is probably the best place for them. Kent State and Arkansas are pretty much spot on. It's apparent that Oregon wasn't the committee's last team in since they're this high. I just cannot figure out why. Again, 18-13 and 9-10 in the Pac-10 seems like a 12 seed to me.
My picks: Davidson, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Kent State

10 seeds: Davidson, Arizona, St. Mary's, South Alabama This is the most dangerous collection of 10 seeds I've seen in awhile. Davidson and Arizona were both within a line, so I have no real arguments with the committee here.
My picks: St. Mary's, Kentucky, Miami, South Alabama

11 seeds: St. Joseph's, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas State I figured K-State would be higher, but with the way they finished, an 11 seed is understandable. I also thought Temple would be higher than St. Joe's based on winning the season series (since there isn't too much difference in their resumes, other than the Hawks getting wins over Villanova and two over Xavier). In the case of these two teams, the seeding switch gave them the matchups they needed to succeed.
My picks: Villanova, Arizona, Temple, Baylor

12 seeds: Villanova, Western Kentucky, Temple, George Mason I had the Hilltoppers as a 13 until Georgia won. I thought Nova would be a line higher and I've already discussed the other two Philly teams in the field.
My picks: George Mason, Western Kentucky, St. Joseph's, Oregon

13 seeds: Winthrop, Oral Roberts, San Diego, Siena I thought Georgia would be here because no major conference team had ever been seeded lower than 14. I also thought Winthrop would be a line lower, since this team isn't quite as good as the last two. I figured Cornell would be here since went unbeaten in the Ivy League, beat Siena, and played Duke close for 30 minutes. In hindsight, this was probably a better landing spot for USD.
My picks: Siena, Georgia, Cornell, Oral Roberts

14 seeds: Cal State-Fullerton, Georgia, Cornell, Boise State Other than thinking the Bulldogs and Big Red would be higher, I can't argue with this group.
My picks: San Diego, Winthrop, Cal State-Fullerton, Boise State

15 seeds: American, Austin Peay, Belmont, Maryland-Baltimore County I had Portland State here instead of American, but I have to assume the committee was rewarding the Eagles for the relative strength of the Patriot League this season.
My picks: Portland State, Maryland-Baltimore County, Belmont, Austin Peay

16 seeds: Portland State, Mississippi Valley State, Texas-Arlington, Mount St. Mary's, Coppin State Political correctness aside, the opening round game should be Mississippi Valley State-Coppin State. Why? Well, if the committee is valuing the RPI all of a sudden, and the two lowest-rated teams are supposed to play in Dayton, logic dicates that the teams ranked 227 and 228 should be there. (Coppin State is 14-20, but is one spot higher than the Delta Devils.) Mount St. Mary's is 69 spots higher than the Devils. The Mountaineers had better hope they play like Niagara did when placed in this game last season.
My picks: American, Mount Saint Mary's, Texas-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Coppin State

I'll post more tomorrow and post my picks on Wednesday.

Brief Post-Mortem

2008-03-16T19:33:00.004-04:00

Here's the simple statistical breakdown for the year and a comparison to last year and 2007.

All 34 at-larges correct (32 of 34 in both 2006 and 2007)

36 seeds correct (23 in 2007, 28 in 2006)
22 off by 1 line (25 in 2007, 19 in 2006)
4 off by 2 lines (12 in 2007, 13 in 2006)
3 off by 3 lines (1 in 2007,3 in 2006)
0 off by 4 lines (3 in 2007, 3 in 2006)

I'll post a more detailed analysis tomorrow night. I've yet to really look at the actual bracket, though I have noticed there are quite a few early mid-major matchups.

Final Bracket

2008-03-16T16:19:00.004-04:00

In my last post, I promised this would be short. Here's my final bracket (seed list).

Villanova and Oregon are in, replacing Virginia Tech and Ohio State. The Buckeyes really needed another win over Michigan State to feel safe, and the Hokies needed to pull that one out against North Carolina yesterday. Villanova moved up after both Pitt and Temple won their conference tournaments yesterday. As for the Ducks, I feel the committee is going to reward them because they have a few more quality wins than either the Buckeyes or Hokies. Georgia's win in the SEC final knocked Arizona State out. The Sun Devils' 5-10 mark in their last 15 games was the factor that caused me to drop them.

I'll discuss the bracket more this evening and tomorrow night.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Pac 10 - 6
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
ACC - 4
Big 10 - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
West Coast - 3
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

New This Bracket
Boise State (auto)
Coppin State (auto)
Georgia (auto)
Oregon
Texas-Arlington (auto)
Villanova

Out of This Bracket
Arizona State
Morgan State (auto)
New Mexico State (auto)
Northwestern State (auto)
Ohio State
Virginia Tech

Last Four In
Arizona
Villanova
Oregon
St. Joseph's

Last Four Out
Arizona State
Illinois State
Ohio State
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
Dayton
Mississippi
New Mexico
Virginia Commonwealth

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Opening Round Projection

2008-03-16T14:41:00.002-04:00

Since the Selection Committee says they'll announce the matchup for Tuesday's Opening Round game by 3:30 today, my projection for this one is the two teams in the field at the moment who have losing records, Coppin State from the MEAC and Mississippi Valley State from the SWAC. It may not be politically correct to place two HBCUs in Dayton, but the profiles of these two teams stand out from the rest of the field. Northwestern State from the Southland could slide in here and replace MVSU if they come back against Texas-Arlington, but this isn't looking likely.

Final bracket and a very quick rundown will be out around 5:30. I have a couple of drafts ready and some contingencies in place based on if Georgia wins the SEC or Illinois takes the Big Ten.

Expect a post-mortem tonight or at the latest tomorrow evening. Tuesday, I'll have a little on my travels over the past week. Wednesday is picks time.

Two Days of Nervous Excitement

2008-03-15T08:19:00.002-04:00

I held off on releasing a bracket last night, since there were a ton of very important games going on. Today's bracket (seed list) is my second to last for this season, and there has been quite a bit of shuffling.

Changes In the Top Four Lines

On the top line, I swapped Tennessee and UCLA's order on the top line, something I was thinking about before either played yesterday. On line two, I swapped Duke and Texas. That means the current ideal Elite Eight matchups in this bracket are North Carolina-Georgetown (East), Memphis-Duke (South), UCLA-Texas (West), and Tennessee-Kansas (Midwest).

Louisville returns to the three line, swapping places with Notre Dame, who lost right after I put my Thursday bracket out. (Now you see why I didn't put anything out last night...) Stanford and Wisconsin remain 3 seeds. So does Xavier, despite their second loss to bracket newcomer St. Joseph's in the past 8 days.

Drake and Michigan State move up to the 4 line after Purdue and Indiana lost their Big Ten quarterfinals to inferior opponents. The Bulldogs and Spartans join the Irish and holdover UConn.

The A-14 Is Bursting Bubbles Left and Right, the Big Televen May Soon

Xavier's loss to St. Joe's means that 2 seed Temple takes the Atlantic 10's auto bid for this bracket. If they lose tonight, an at-large should open back up, but if they win... Illinois or Minnesota could also steal an at-large if they win the Big Ten tournament Sunday. (You have to hope the selection committee is sweating this one out, as this could make their process even more crunched.) The delay in the SEC tournament, thanks to the severe weather affecting the Georgia Dome last night could also create problems, as Georgia's only way in is through the auto bid, Kentucky needs the games for their profile, and Tennessee needs the wins for a one seed.

In terms of new at-larges, St. Joseph's is back in after beating Xavier again. They should be safe even if they lose. The A-10 semis mean that Illinois State and UMass drop out of the bracket. Virginia Tech's win over Miami in the ACC quarters, put the Hokies in and pushed VCU out.

In the land of auto bids, congratulations to American University! The Eagles beat Colgate 52-46 to make their first NCAA tournament. I've been to three Final Fours and seen the nets cut down twice, but the atmosphere in Bender Arena was truly something special yesterday evening. Today, I'm heading over to Baltimore to see if the UMBC Retrievers can make their first, and I'm contemplating a drive to Atlantic City to see St. Joe's-Temple.

Otherwise, several favorites lost last night. Top seeds UC Santa Barbara (Big West), Utah State (WAC), Alabama State (SWAC), and Stephen F. Austin (Southland) are all out, so their losses led to quite a bit of shuffling on the bottom four lines.

My final projection will come out Sunday afternoon.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
ACC - 5
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
West Coast - 3
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

New This Bracket
Cal State-Fullerton (auto)
Mississippi Valley State (auto)
New Mexico State (auto)
Northwestern State (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Temple (auto)
Virginia Tech

Out of This Bracket
Alabama State (auto)
UC Santa Barbara (auto)
Illinois State
Massachusetts
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Utah State (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth

Last Four In
Illinois State
Ohio State
Virginia Commonwealth
Arizona State

Last Four Out
Illinois State
Oregon
Massachusetts
Virginia Commonwealth

Next Four Out
Dayton
Florida
Syracuse
Villanova

Also Considered (Barely at This Point)
UAB
Maryland
Mississippi
New Mexico

E-mail me with comments or questions.

The First of the Final Four Projections

2008-03-13T21:39:00.003-04:00

Since only two of the top eight (Memphis and Georgetown) were in action tonight and both won handily, there's no change in the top 8 of tonight's bracket (seed list). I'm writing this earlier than I'd planned tonight, since I need to get to work early so I can leave early to make the Pat League final tomorrow. Therefore, I won't be able to account for any games wrapping up beyond 10 p.m. Eastern. With this in mind, I swapped UConn and Stanford, dropping the Huskies down to the 4 line after their loss to West Virginia this afternoon. The Mountaineers moved up to the 8 line based on this result. Pitt moved up to the 7 line after beating Louisville, who also falls down to the 4 line. Notre Dame replaces them on the 3 line, which may change tomorrow based on what happens in their Big East quarterfinal with Marquette.

No New Entries Today

I won't have a horse in the race this year, as Florida's "Boeheim" burst after a simply awful first half against Alabama tonight. Two other bubble teams are just barely hanging on courtesy of others' failings. Baylor drops down to an 11 seed, after losing in 2OT to bottom seed Colorado in the Big 12 first round. Arizona State is right on the cut line at the moment, but miserable Pac 10 officiating cost them their quarterfinal with USC this afternoon. The Bears and Sun Devils are saved by the fact that UAB, Houston, Villanova, Florida, and Dayton all lost today. ASU needs to root for an Oregon loss tonight. The Ducks are the next team in line to move into this projection.

Next update will be tomorrow night/early Saturday morning.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 4
West Coast - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Colonial - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

Last Four In
Illinois State
Ohio State
Virginia Commonwealth
Arizona State

Last Four Out
Oregon
New Mexico
Villanova
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
Florida
Maryland
Mississippi
Syracuse

Also Considered
UAB
Dayton
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

The Big Boys Get Into the Act

2008-03-12T21:30:00.002-04:00

There are very few changes at the top of tonight's bracket (seed list). The ideal Elite Eight matchups are the same as last night. However, I did move UConn up to the 3 line, dropping Stanford to the 4. Any changes on lines 5 through 12 are the result of this flip.

Substitution: Brutus in for Otto

The "Boeheim" burst for the Orange this afternoon. But, Syracuse's loss didn't put victors Villanova in. Ohio State was the next team in the queue last night, so the Buckeyes move into the bracket tonight. If the Wildcats beat (or are lose a close one to) Georgetown tomorrow at noon, Nova may bring the Big East's bid total back up to 8.

Mount St. Mary's is our new auto bid tonight, after they kept Sacred Heart from clinching their first tournament bid. The Mountaineers look destined for a Tuesday night date in Dayton.

In other games to watch tomorrow, Dayton can start to hope if they knock off Xavier tomorrow in the A-10. St. Joe's needs to beat Richmond to stay alive, and UMass will drop out if they lose to the URI-Charlotte winner. Two seed Temple is just on the fringe of the at-large discussion, but if they keep winning that will change. Big Five rival LaSalle is the Owls' quarterfinal opponent.

It's a big day in the Pac 10. Arizona State and Oregon are probably fighting for one berth. The Sun Devils play USC and the Ducks get Washington State. Whoever gets furthest should get in. In the SEC, Florida needs to beat Alabama and Ole Miss must take out Georgia to keep their slim hopes alive. In the ACC, Miami is pretty safe, but cannot afford a loss to 12 seed NC State. Maryland cannot afford a loss to BC in the night session.

Next update late tomorrow night.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 4
West Coast - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Colonial - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Mountain West - 2
Sun Belt - 2

New This Bracket
Mount Saint Mary's (auto)
Ohio State

Out of the Bracket
Sacred Heart (auto)
Syracuse

Last Four In
Illinois State
Arizona State
Ohio State
Virginia Commonwealth

Last Four Out
Florida
Oregon
Villanova
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
UAB
Maryland
New Mexico
Syracuse

Also Considered
Dayton
Mississippi
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Rapidly Shrinking Bubble

2008-03-11T21:00:00.003-04:00

At the top of tonight's bracket (seed list), there are only slight changes in the ideal Elite Eight matchups: North Carolina and Georgetown (East), UCLA and Kansas (West), Tennessee and Duke (Midwest), and Memphis and Texas (South).

Louisville, Stanford, Wisconsin, and Xavier all stand pat on the 3 line. Indiana jumps back up to the 4 line, replacing Vanderbilt. UConn, Notre Dame, and Purdue join them.

Blue Raiders and Toreros, Oh My!

The at-large pool was two spots smaller heading into tomorrow night. As predicted here a few weeks ago, San Diego won the West Coast title at home. This pretty much ensures that the West Coast Conference will have three bids instead of two. On that same page, you'll also see that I predicted that South Alabama would fall victim to the Sun Belt hosting curse. So they naturally lost to Middle Tennessee in the semifinals. Since the Jags are in pretty good shape to get an at-large, that means the Sun Belt should get two for the first time in that conference's modern era. Butler did manage to win the Horizon League tonight, keeping an at-large out there.

UAB and New Mexico are the two unlucky teams who fall out because of these results. Even though, Illinois State and Arizona State were slightly below them on the S-curve on Sunday, the Blazers and Lobos profiles don't have quite the punch as the Sun Devils'. The Redbirds are very much on the bubble, however, since they have no more games to play and the weakest profile of the teams currently in my bracket. I also swapped Virginia Commonwealth and Virginia Tech. It's getting to the time in the season where you have to think of the wacky things the committee may do when selecting teams. So, if the season ended today, they'd probably reward a team who won an extremely competitive CAA by three games whose non-conference slate was also challenging over a mediocre ACC team whose non-conference slate wasn't that great.

Mind you, this may all change in a big way tomorrow and Thursday. Syracuse is still in, but they won't be if they can't beat Villanova tomorrow at noon. Arizona has that game with RPI-killer Oregon State in the Pac-10 opening round tomorrow. They get Stanford Thursday if they win.

Next update late tomorrow night.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
ACC - 4
Big 10 - 4
West Coast - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Colonial - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
Mountain West - 2

New This Bracket
Sacred Heart (auto)
San Diego (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth
Western Kentucky (auto)

Out of the Bracket
UAB
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
Wagner (auto)

Last Four In
Syracuse
Virginia Commonwealth
Arizona State
Illinois State

Last Four Out
Florida
Ohio State
Oregon
Virginia Tech

Next Four Out
UAB
Maryland
New Mexico
Villanova

Also Considered
Dayton
Mississippi
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

One Week Left...

2008-03-09T21:32:00.002-04:00

There are six newcomers in tonight's bracket (seed list), one new at-large (Syracuse, replacing Maryland) and five new auto bid holders, one of whom (Winthrop) has a conference tournament title and is in for sure.

The Top Spot is Solid for Now

North Carolina's win at Cameron Indoor Saturday means they're the overall number one seed for the immediate future. Only a loss in the ACC tournament would allow Memphis to pass the Tar Heels at this point. UCLA and Tennessee stay on the top line. Georgetown's regular season title in the tougher Big East means the Hoyas pass Wisconsin on my S-curve, dropping the Badgers back to the 3 line.

Here are tonight's ideal Elite Eight matchups: North Carolina and Georgetown (East), UCLA and Kansas (West), Tennessee and Texas (Midwest), and Memphis and Duke (South).

Louisville, Xavier, and Stanford remain on the three line. I was tempted to move the Cardinal down after they were swept by the LA schools, but didn't think anyone on the 4 line was quite worthy of the move up. Indiana's OT loss to Penn State and UConn's 45-point win over Cincinnati mean the Huskies and Hoosiers swap seed lines again.. Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, and Purdue remain as protected seeds.

Bubble Mayhem

Kentucky furthered their at-large status today by defeating my alma mater. The Gators need a deep run in the SEC tournament to make it at this point. Syracuse is the sole new at-large tonight. The Orange replace Maryland, who in true Terrapin fashion, lost a game they really needed to win at UVa. The Terps are faced with a difficult road in the ACC tournament, facing NC State in round 1, followed by Clemson in the quarterfinals if they beat the Wolfpack. (And we all know what happened the last time those two met.) The Orange meanwhile, have a favorable draw in the Big East tournament. Villanova in the 8/9 game in that magical noon timeslot on Wednesday, with a quarterfinal matchup against Georgetown on the line.

The Pac 10 tournament will definitely be one to watch. Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon are fighting for two spots. The Wildcats face RPI killer Oregon State in round one. Get past that and it's Stanford in the quarterfinals. Not the most ideal map for a team that's 8-10 in the conference. The Sun Devils and Ducks are both 9-9. ASU faces USC in a quarterfinal, with the teams splitting 14-point home wins. Oregon faces Wazzu, who swept them this season. Slightly off topic, someone needs to tell Nike and the Oregon athletic department that putting names on the back of a jersey only works when the color of the name is a different shade than the color of the jersey.

My next update will be Tuesday, to account for the 4 conference championship games on Monday night. I'll then provide daily updates until Selection Sunday.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
ACC - 5
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 4
Mountain West - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Bracket
George Mason (auto)
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Syracuse
Utah State (auto)
Wagner (auto)
Winthrop (auto)

Out of the Bracket
Boise State (auto)
Lamar (auto)
Maryland
UNC Asheville (auto)
Robert Morris (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth (auto)

Last Four In
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Arizona State
Illinois State

Last Four Out
Maryland
Ohio State
Oregon
Virginia Commonwealth

Next Four Out
Dayton
Florida
Saint Joseph's
Villanova

Also Considered
Houston
Mississippi
Temple
Western Kentucky

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Close to the Homestretch

2008-03-07T20:49:00.003-05:00

Today's bracket (seed list) is relatively stable compared to Monday's. However, with some big games among the Bubble Boys and the first conference tournaments wrapping up over the weekend, there could be some jostling in the first of my homestretch daily updates on Sunday. Remember, you can now compare my projection with many, many others at The Bracket Project.

A Newcomer in the Top 8

Xavier's loss at St. Joe's Thursday night cost them their spot on the 2 line. (Not that Drew Lavender's bum ankle helps their cause.) Wisconsin has a share of the Big Ten title at the moment and that's good enough to move them up to replace the Musketeers. The winner of tomorrow's Louisville-Georgetown Big East title tilt has a good chance to crash the party on Sunday, however. This change leads to the following ideal Elite Eight matchups now North Carolina and Wisconsin (East), UCLA and Kansas (West), Tennessee and Duke (Midwest), and Memphis and Texas (South).

Louisville, Georgetown, and Stanford remain on the three line. The Cardinal would've moved back up to the 2 line had they not lost to UCLA on a highly questionable foul call that forced overtime. Indiana replaces UConn on the 4 line after the Huskies lost to Providence last night (completing an unexpected season sweep for the struggling Friars). Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, and Purdue join the Hoosiers as 4 seeds.

Look Who's Back

There's only one new at-large in the bracket today, and that's Kentucky. The Wildcats replace Florida, pretty much because they're winning games and the Gators aren't. This may change on Sunday after the two meet at Rupp. But there could be further shifts, Syracuse hosts Marquette Saturday and Ohio State takes on an unpredictable Michigan State team on Sunday. Wins for the Orange and Buckeyes in these games would help them considerably. Virginia Tech and Maryland are barely hanging on at the moment, and both teams face stern road tests to close out the ACC regular season. The Hokies visit Clemson and the Terps go to Virginia, who, despite their last place standing, will want to wreck their rival's tourney hopes. Also, pay special attention to two Pac 10 games. Oregon hosts Arizona, with the Ducks needing a win to boost their hopes. Arizona State is also barely hanging on at the moment, and if they give Oregon State their first conference win of the year, it could be fatal to the Sun Devils' hopes.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 4
Mountain West - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Bracket
Kentucky
UC Santa Barbara (auto)

Out of the Bracket
Florida
Cal State-Northridge (auto)

Last Four In
Kentucky
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Arizona State

Last Four Out
Florida
Ohio State
St. Joseph's
Syracuse

Next Four Out
Oregon
Southern Illinois
Villanova
Western Kentucky

Also Considered
Creighton
Dayton
George Mason
Houston
Mississippi
Rhode Island
Stephen F. Austin
Temple

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Won't Someone Just Win Some Games Already?!?!?!

2008-03-03T19:16:00.002-05:00

That is my question for the majority of teams that span occupy this year's massive bubble. Today's bracket includes two at-large teams on the 13 line, for crying out loud. That's a sure sign that no one is seizing the initiative and attempting to earn their way into the field.

I was tempted to just put the names of 16 bubble teams in a hat and draw four out to come up with today's Last Four In. However, I saw this morning that my bracket is now included in The Bracket Project's comparison of internet projections. So, I figured I'd better take things even a bit more seriously than usual.

UNC Tops Overall, UCLA Back in the Top 4

North Carolina moves back to the overall number one seed spot, and the coveted Raleigh/Charlotte path to the Final Four. While Tennessee's loss to Vanderbilt on Tuesday didn't lead me to drop them Saturday, I did drop them today after they struggled at Kentucky. Memphis remains number two overall and the top seed in the South. UCLA jumps to the top spot in the West after Texas's loss at Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon.

With this in mind, here are the ideal Elite Eight matchups now North Carolina and Xavier in the East, UCLA and Kansas in the West, Tennessee and Duke in the Midwest, and Memphis and Texas in the South.

The three seeds, Louisville, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Stanford, are remarkably steady at the moment. Any one of the three could pass Xavier and end up on the two line between now and Selection Sunday, however. Purdue rejoins the four line, replacing Indiana after the Hoosiers were blown out at Michigan State on Sunday. Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, and Connecticut remain as protected seeds at the moment. The Irish and Huskies have the most potential to move up, thanks to the presence of two Big East teams on the three line.

I Didn't Mean to Install a Revolving Door

My task today would've been far easier and far more personally satisfying had Syracuse buried Pittsburgh like cheese on Saturday afternoon. Instead, the Panthers hung in there and stole one from the Orange. That means SU left the bracket mere hours after they arrived. Ohio State is gone too thanks to a loss at Minnesota. So, I've spent most of my day thinking about who would replace them in the bracket and whether to dump teams like my alma mater, the less than mighty Florida Gators, Maryland, Arizona State, and Texas A&M. In the end, those four stay (although their seeds all took significant hits). Illinois State gets in by virtue of their win over Southern Illinois on Saturday. Don't write the Salukis off yet, since these two teams could meet in a Missouri Valley Semifinal on Saturday in St. Louis. I also caved in and put in New Mexico. I seriously considered Kentucky, but their non-conference struggles still weigh heavily on my mind. Add in the Patrick Patterson injury and 3-7 road/neutral record, and the Wildcats still have work to do. The UF-UK game Sunday afternoon could be an elimination game.

Regular Season Champions

Congratulations go out to the Cornell Big Red, who clinched the Ivy League championship on Saturday night, and are therefore the first team in the field.

Here are the teams that have clinched their conference's regular season titles as of right now. They will remain in the bracket until they either win their league tournament or lose.

America East - Maryland-Baltimore County (hosts the final if they make it)
Atlantic Sun - Belmont (conference tourney down the street at Lipscomb)
Atlantic 10 - Xavier
Big Sky - Portland State (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Big South - UNC Asheville (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Colonial - Virginia Commonwealth (conference tourney on their former home court)
Conference USA - Memphis (hosts conference tourney)
Horizon - Butler (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Metro Atlantic - Siena (hosts conference tourney)
Mid-Eastern - Morgan State
Missouri Valley - Drake (beware the Arch Madness Curse)
Northeast - Robert Morris (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay
Patriot - American (home court advantage for as long as they last)
Southern - Davidson (20-0 in the league, an incredible feat)
Summit - Oral Roberts (conference tournament in Tulsa, but not on their home court)
Sun Belt - South Alabama (trying to buck the trend of bad luck for the host school)

Speaking of the postseason, I will be attending American's Pat League quarterfinal with Holy Cross on Wednesday night.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 4
Mountain West - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Bracket
Illinois State
New Mexico
UNC Asheville

Out of the Bracket
Ohio State
Syracuse
Winthrop

Last Four In
Illinois State
Maryland
Florida
New Mexico

Last Four Out
Kentucky
Ohio State
Syracuse
Villanova

Next Four Out
Oregon
St. Joseph's
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky

Also Considered
Creighton
Dayton
Florida State
George Mason
Houston
Mississippi
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
Stephen F. Austin
Wake Forest
Wright State

E-mail me with comments or questions.

RPI: Not the Be All End All of Bracketology

2008-03-02T12:40:00.002-05:00

R, P, and I. Probably the three letters that are thrown around the most during the first half of the month of March in the United States. While everyone is familiar with the term RPI, not everyone knows what it is and how much influence it actually has in the selection process for the NCAA men's basketball tournament. In this post, I'm going to show you how using the RPI alone would give the committee an inaccurate picture of the national landscape and would result in a radically different tournament field than a more balanced selection process would ensure. To do this, I'm going to compare the bracket I released Saturday morning with one based solely on the RPI after Thursday night's games, which was my cutoff point for the Friday night preparation of my bracket.

What is the RPI?

RPI stands for Ratings Percentage Index, a formula used by the NCAA to rate teams in various sports as a tool in the selection and seeding process for national championships. By nature, the RPI is not a basketball-specific formula, but since the actual formula used in each sport is secret, it can be assumed that each sport's committee makes tweaks to it to match their sport's particular characteristics. For example, since home court advantage is particularly important in basketball, it's pretty well known that there is a penalty built into the basketball RPI for losing at home.

The NCAA releases the RPI on Mondays during the season, but doesn't provide daily updates. For daily updates, there are a few sites that try to replicate the formula. Jerry Palm's College RPI, ESPN.com, and Kyle Whelliston's Basketball State require a subscription for at least some of their data. I use Ken Pomeroy's RPI listing and other statistics while putting my bracket together. He summarizes the basic RPI formula in this way:

"1/4*(Winning Percentage) + 1/2*(Opponents' Average Winning Percentage) + 1/4*(Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage)."

He offers a more detailed explanation here.

The RPI does a fair job of measuring a team's performance and even their strength of schedule. However, this doesn't mean it can't be exploited. When building a non-conference schedule a school can schedule games that they should easily win (boosting the 25% winning percentage portion of the formula) against teams who should play well in weaker conferences (boosting the 50% opponents' winning percentage portion while not causing too much harm to the 25% opponents' opponents' portion).

A high RPI rating can tell you if a team can win, it just can't quite tell you the types of teams that it's beating. The separate Strength of Schedule (SOS) rating does this, which is why, more often than not, you'll see a good sized disparity between a team's RPI and SOS.

The RPI formula also doesn't give easy access to two factors that are important in the selection process, recent performance (wins and losses in the last 12 games) and road and neutral performance. These are two factors that selection committee members must access and consider during the process.

The RPI Only Bracket

To create this bracket, I simply selected the 31 conference leaders based on record as my automatic qualifiers. Next, I took the top 34 teams in the RPI who weren't conference leaders to fill in the at-large spots. Since, 14 of the 31 conference champions were rated higher than #65 in the RPI, team #49 in the rankings, Florida, was the last team in.

In terms of seeding, I placed the teams in order from 1 to 65 in the S-curve. Tennessee (#1) was the top overall seed, and Morgan State (#133) and Alabama State (#235) were the two teams selected to play in the Opening Round game. I did have to make several adjustments to the actual bracket to meet bracketing principles (avoid conference matchups until at least the second round, avoiding regular season rematches, keeping teams within their natural regions when possible). For example, I swapped UCLA (#8) and Duke (#5) on the 2 line to keep them within their natural regions. I did the same with Kansas (#9) and Georgetown (#10) on the 3 line.

I did have to swap teams out of their natural seed lines in two instances to preserve bracket integrity. I swapped BYU, a true 6 seed, with Pittsburgh, a true 7, to move the Cougars to a Thursday-Saturday site for the first two weekends, as required. I also swapped VCU, a 12 seed, with Arkansas, an 11, to keep the Razorbacks out of Tennessee's region.

Bracket Differences

Here are some of the key differences between the two brackets, starting with who's in and who's out.

In the RPI Bracket, Out of the Full Projection
Dayton (10 seed)
Illinois State (10 seed)
Mississippi (12 seed)
Southern Illinois (10 seed)
Stephen F. Austin (12 seed)

In the Full Projection, Out of the RPI Bracket
UAB (13 seed)
Arizona State (12 seed)
Maryland (10 seed)
Syracuse (12 seed)
Virginia Tech (13 seed)

As you can see, only using the RPI to project the field brings in several teams who's recent performances have them only on the periphery of the at-large conversation (Dayton and Mississippi), don't have a great strength of schedule (Illinois State and Stephen F. Austin), and were on the verge of making it in heading into the weekend (Southern Illinois). In contrast, five teams, four of which are from major conferences, that have fairly good cases (well, for this year anyway) are left out.

These changes result in changes to the number of bids for each conference.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 7 in RPI bracket (8 in full projection)
Big 12 - 6 (6 in full)
SEC - 6 (5 in full)
Big 10 - 5 (5 in full)
Pac 10 - 5 (6 in full)
ACC - 4 (6 in full)
Atlantic 10 - 3 (2 in full)
Missouri Valley - 3 (1 in full)
Mountain West - 2 (2 in full)
Southland - 2 (1 in full)
West Coast - 2 (2 in full)
Conference USA - 1 (2 in full)

Of course, this year it's hard to argue that the number of bids for these conferences will be far off from these totals (well, except for the Southland perhaps).

Last Four In
Florida
Ohio State
Mississippi
Stephen F. Austin

Last Four Out
Syracuse
Creighton
Western Kentucky
UAB

Next Four Out
St. Joseph's
Kentucky
New Mexico
Ohio

These categories are all based on the RPI. The Last Four In are teams rated 46-49; the Last Four Out 50, 52, 53, and 54 (51 rated Davidson was an auto bid); and the Next Four Out 55-58.

Most starkly, the RPI led to quite a bit of shuffling in the seeding. This is where teams' performance in their last 12 games and in road and neutral contests would've had the most impact.

Seeding Winners
Vanderbilt - 2 in RPI bracket/4 in full bracket
Michigan State - 4/6
Marquette - 4/5
Drake - 4/5
Butler - 5/6
Arizona - 6/9
Pittsburgh - 6 (true 7)/8
Clemson - 6/7
Kent State - 7/10
Miami - 7/8
UNLV - 8/9
South Alabama - 8/9
Oklahoma - 8/11
West Virginia - 9/10
Massachusetts - 10/11
VCU - 11 (true 12)/12
Belmont - 14/15
Austin Peay - 15/16
Portland State - 15/16

Seeding Losers
Kansas - 3 in RPI bracket/2 in full bracket
Stanford - 6/3
Indiana - 5/4
Notre Dame - 5/4
Washington State - 6/5
Purdue - 7/5
BYU - 7 (true 6)/6
St. Mary's - 8/7
Gonzaga - 9/6
Baylor - 9/8
Southern California - 9/7
Kansas State - 11/7
Mississippi State - 11/8
Texas A&M - 11/9
Arkansas - 12 (true 11)/11
Davidson -13/11
Florida - 13/10
Winthrop - 16/15
Robert Morris - 16/14

I'll be back with a full projection tomorrow evening. There will definitely be some changes after the weekend's action. Congratulations to Cornell, who's the first team in. A whole slew of teams sewed up their conference regular season titles yesterday, so they'll be included in the bracket until they either lose in their conference tourneys or claim the title.

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Welcome to March...

2008-03-01T08:55:00.002-05:00

We're now officially into the homestretch, which means hopefully we'll get some clarity in terms of the at-large pool in the coming days. There are three changes at the bottom of today's bracket and one shift on the top four lines.

Top 12 Overall Intact

Tennessee remains the overall number one seed and the top seed in the East, despite their loss to new four seed Vanderbilt on Tuesday night. Memphis remains second and the top seed in the South. North Carolina holds the top seed in the Midwest. Why aren't the Tar Heels in the East? Well, just like with the first weekend, the top seed is given the chance to go to the closest available regional site. Since Tennessee is first overall and Charlotte is the closest site, they get the East's top seed. Texas is the last remaining one seed and is placed in the West.

Some shuffling on the two line results in these potential Elite Eight matchups: Tennessee and Xavier in the East, Texas and UCLA in the West, North Carolina and Kansas in the Midwest, and Memphis and Duke in the South. Is it potentially unfair for the Longhorns to have to face the Bruins and the Tar Heels to play the Jayhawks in the lower seeds' natural regions? Perhaps. However, the committee doesn't concern themselves with matchups beyond the first weekend. Duke is ahead of Kansas on my S-curve; however, the Blue Devils can't be placed in the same region as UNC.

Today, the three seeds are the same as on Monday (Louisville, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Stanford). There has been one change among the fours, however. Vanderbilt rises up from the five line, knocking down Purdue, and joining Indiana, Notre Dame, and Connecticut.

Nearing Safety

Looking at the bracket, with two weeks to go until Selection Sunday, I'd say that only about half of the field can feel safe about getting in. At the bottom of the bracket, conference tournaments will undoubtedly result in some newcomers (more on that in a second). The real fun involves seed lines 8 through 13, however. In a season where so many teams are significantly flawed, few of these teams can feel confident at this point about where they'll be on March 16. At this point, 8 seeds like Pittsburgh and Miami and 9s like Texas A&M and Arizona should be feeling pretty good about getting in. The problem is a late season slump (particularly for these four, who've been inconsistent of late) could drop them a few lines down or off the board completely. Struggles by these teams could benefit teams like Florida, Syracuse, and Ohio State, who have marquee games remaining or Maryland, Arkansas, and Massachusetts, who have highly winnable ones left. Be aware there will be a lot of turbulence over the next two weeks, and the major conference tournaments may carry more weight than usual.

In and Out

St. Joseph's and Villanova, who joined the bracket on Monday are now back out. The Hawks dropped a game to St. Louis on Hawk Hill Thursday night. You remember the Billikens. A few weeks ago, they managed an unfathomable 20 points at GW. Well, now they and the Colonials are playing the role of spoiler in the Atlantic 10. Rhode Island bubble burst thanks to a barrage of 3s late in the first half at the Smith Center on Wednesday night. Watch out for the Billikens and Colonials at the A14 tourney in Atlantic City. (Well, watch out for GW if they make it.) Nova drops out after losing to Marquette almost immediately after my Monday bracket came out. Wake Forest also drops out after dropping consecutive games to UNC and Maryland.

Syracuse moves back in, only because they haven't played since Sunday (and therefore they haven't lost since then). A win against Pitt today will keep them in on Monday and greatly boost their chances of being in the real bracket in two weeks. Virginia Tech is also in today. They have very little in their non-conference resume to suggest inclusion, but 8-6 in the ACC (albeit with no wins against the top 3) and a sweep of Maryland could be enough this year. UAB also joins the party, despite only three top 100 wins (Cincinnati, at Kentucky, and Houston). A 9-3 mark in their last 12, with one of the losses being a one-pointer to Memphis, puts them here.

Housekeeping Matters

Tomorrow, I'm going to release another bracket, but a slightly different one. Tomorrow's version will be based solely on Ken Pomeroy's Friday RPI numbers (with some movement allowed for bracketing procedural rules). I'll do this to show you how the RPI is only a tool, and how things would be radically different (and perhaps unfair) if it was the only metric used in the selection and seeding process.

Since Championship Week is approaching, I'll be making a slight tweak to how I award automatic bids starting Monday. When a conference's standings become final and the seeds are released for the conference tournament, the highest remaining seed will have the auto bid. Previously, if there was a tie in the standings, I took the team with the highest RPI. Since teams are even in terms of the number of conference games at the end of the year, this is no longer necessary.

We may have our first auto bid tonight. Cornell can clinch the Ivy League with a win over Harvard or a Brown loss to Penn.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 2
Conference USA - 2
Mountain West - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Bracket
UAB
Syracuse
Virginia Tech

Out of the Bracket
Saint Joseph's
Villanova
Wake Forest

Last Four In
Ohio State
Syracuse
UAB
Virginia Tech

Last Four Out
New Mexico
Saint Joseph's
Southern Illinois
Villanova

Next Four Out
Houston
Oregon
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky

Also Considered
California
Dayton
Florida State
George Mason
Illinois State
Kentucky
Mississippi
Seton Hall
Stephen F. Austin
Western Kentucky

E-mail me with comments or questions.

A Weekend of Changes

2008-02-25T19:05:00.002-05:00

After the weekend's action, the top 16 in today's bracket are the same. There has been a bit of shuffling on the top two lines, however.

Change at the Top

Tennessee defeated Memphis in an entertaining, if not slightly sloppy game. The Vols now have the top overall spot, with the Tigers falling to second. Tennessee will go to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt tomorrow night, so it's possible their stay at the top will be a short one. North Carolina and Texas are new one seeds today, passing conference rivals. Duke and Kansas now find themselves on the two line, where UCLA is the lone holdover from Saturday. Xavier moves up from the three line.

The Musketeers' gain is Stanford's loss. The Cardinal are now a three seed, where they join holdovers Wisconsin and Louisville. Georgetown moves up from the four line, while Connecticut drops down after losing at newcomer Villanova Saturday. Indiana, Purdue, and Notre Dame stay as protected seeds in this bracket.

BracketBuster Recap

This weekend's BracketBuster games mean there's only one new team filling an auto bid today. Robert Morris easily defeated Wagner Saturday to take the lead in the Northeast Conference (as predicted here a few weeks ago). The Colonials are in the driver's seat to host the conference final at home. However, several teams' BracketBuster performances impacted their seedings today. Drake won at Hinkle Fieldhouse, meaning the Des Moines Bulldogs are now seeded ahead of Butler. This should remain the case the rest of the way. St. Mary's drops a line after losing to Kent State at home. The Golden Flashes, meanwhile, are on the 12-line. This means they have a good chance at getting an at-large should something happen in the always wild MAC tournament. Davidson's big win over Winthrop also gives the Wildcats some at-large insurance. Siena hammered Boise State on the Broncos' home court, meaning the WAC leaders drop down to the 15 line. (It's hard to believe that the WAC, usually a multi-bid league, will not only get just one team in this year, but that their entrant will be seeded below the 12 line.) Outside of the teams currently in the bracket, Southern Illinois destroyed Nevada in Carbondale. The Salukis are starting to pull things together just in time for Arch Madness. Remember, they were the first team to beat Drake in the league.

Slight Shifts on the Bubble

St. Joseph's and Villanova are the only two newcomers to the at-large group today. The Hawks beat Rhode Island Sunday to both move into sole possession of second in the Atlantic 10 and knock the Rams out of today's bracket. The Wildcats replace Syracuse. The Orange didn't get the split they needed at Louisville and Notre Dame, while Nova is winning again. The win over UConn was good, but their demolition of West Virginia on Wednesday night was downright shocking. Wake Forest stays in, despite the loss to North Carolina last night. Finally, Ohio State is a rare at-large 13 seed tonight. Kent State and Davidson both passed them on the S-curve. The Buckeyes wins over Syracuse and Florida are literally the only things keeping them in at the moment.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Week
Robert Morris (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Villanova

Out of the Bracket
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Wagner (auto)

Last Four In
Florida
Maryland
Ohio State
Wake Forest

Last Four Out
UAB
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Syracuse

Next Four Out
California
Dayton
Illinois State
Virginia Tech

Also Considered
George Mason
Houston
Mississippi
Oregon
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Breaking Down the Bubble

2008-02-24T12:51:00.004-05:00

The bubble this year is a mess, so I wanted to give you a look at where we stand with three weeks to go from Selection Sunday. First, I'm going to break down who's in and who's on the bubble. Then, I'll go through each of the bubble teams, rating their chances for actually making it into the field in three weeks time.

Let's start by taking a look at the multi-bid leagues. I've labeled teams that are locks as IN. Teams that are very close are Probable. Your typical bubble teams are Questionable. The few fringe teams that remain are Doubtful.

Multi-Bid Leagues (7)
Atlantic Coast
IN: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson
Probable: None
Questionable: Miami, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Probable: West Virginia
Questionable: Syracuse, Villanova
Doubtful: Seton Hall

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Probable: None
Questionable: Ohio State

Big 12
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Probable: None
Questionable: Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma

Pac 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern California
Probable: Arizona
Questionable: Arizona State, California
Doubtful: Oregon

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Probable: Mississippi State
Questionable: Arkansas, Florida
Doubtful: Mississippi, Kentucky

West Coast
IN: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Could get a third bid as San Diego is a game back of these two and hosts the conference tournament.

Potential for Multiple Bids in Order of Likelihood for the Conference (10 - current leaders in parentheses)

Now let's take a look at the leagues that could snag more than one bid. The same system (IN, Probable, Questionable, and Doubtful) applies, but I'm only describing a team's at-large chances. They can always take care of business and win their tournament.

Atlantic Ten (Xavier)
IN: Xavier
Questionable: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Dayton, St. Joseph's

Mountain West (Brigham Young)
Probable: BYU
Questionable: UNLV, New Mexico

Conference USA (Memphis)
IN: Memphis
Questionable: UAB, Houston

Mid American (Kent State)
Questionable: Kent State

Missouri Valley (Drake)
IN: Drake
Doubtful: Illinois State

Colonial (Virginia Commonwealth)
Questionable: VCU
Doubtful: George Mason

Sun Belt (South Alabama)
Questionable: South Alabama
Doubtful: Western Kentucky

Horizon (Butler)
IN: Butler

Southern (Davidson)
Questionable: Davidson

Summit League (Oral Roberts)
Doubtful: Oral Roberts

One-bid Leagues (14 - current leaders in parentheses): America East (Maryland-Baltimore County), Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky (Portland State), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (Cal State-Northridge), Ivy League (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Austin Peay), Patriot League (American), Southland (Lamar), Southwestern (Alabama State), Western Athletic (Boise State)

Breaking It All Down

Taking into account the one-bid leagues, the league leaders in the conferences that may get multiple bids, and the teams that fall under the IN or Probable categories across the board, 50 of the 65 teams are pretty much set at this stage. We currently have 26 teams who have chances of varying degrees at an at-large bid, and eight others (Davidson, George Mason, Illinois State, Kent State, Oral Roberts, South Alabama, VCU, and Western Kentucky) who have a case, but can make life easier on themselves by winning their conference tournaments. Keep in mind that conference tournament titles for teams like Western Kentucky, George Mason, and Illinois State could reduce the at-large pool further.

I'm going to examine these teams in two groups. First, I'll look at the eight teams from the one-bid leagues, then the bubble teams from the multi-bid leagues. All records and statistics are from Ken Pomeroy's RPI site and only account for games against Division I opponents through Saturday.

Davidson (20-6, Ratings Percentage Index (RPI): 61, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 157, Last 12 Games (L12) 12-0, Road-Neutral Record (RN) 10-4): Only a home date with Appalachian State and road trip to Georgia Southern separate the Wildcats from an unbeaten Southern Conference mark. They probably need to win the conference tournament to be safe, but if they don't, close losses to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, and NC State will keep them in the conversation. Thoroughly dominating Winthrop in their BracketBuster Friday night helped. As a 12-seed in the bracket, they're definitely in the at-large pool. VERDICT: At-large if necessary.

George Mason (19-9, RPI: 70, SOS: 157, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-8): The loss to Ohio in the BracketBuster was fatal to the Patriots at-large hopes. The early Dayton win isn't looking as good as it was, even though the Kansas State victory in Orlando has some value. Losing to East Carolina and Georgia State is unforgivable, especially considering that a run-in of William and Mary and at Northeastern won't provide much of a computer boost. VERDICT: Must win the CAA Tournament

Illinois State (18-8, RPI: 51, SOS: 94, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-7): The Redbirds have a BracketBuster game with Wright State tonight that will only slightly help them if they win it. A loss though would end any at-large hopes. Best wins are at Creighton and at home to SIU, the two teams who they play to end the regular season. Really needed to beat either Indiana or Kent State in November in the Chicago 'burbs for the resume.
VERDICT: Must win the MVC Tournament

Kent State (23-5, RPI: 30, SOS: 135, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): Outside of Drake, the Golden Flashes were th big winners in BracketBusters, winning in a very difficult gym against a highly-touted St. Mary's team. The win more than makes up for the loss (by 1) to Detroit to open the season. Wins over two other teams on this list, Mason and Illinois State put them ahead in the pecking order. Kent State closes the regular season against three teams they've beaten already (at Bowling Green, Miami, and at Akron). If they don't lose early in the MAC tournament, they should be safe.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the MAC semis

Oral Roberts (19-7, RPI: 58, SOS: 144, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-6): The loss to Creighton yesterday ended all at-large hopes for the Golden Eagles. IUPUI (81) is the best win, and they gave that back in Indianapolis. The Oklahoma State (100) win carries a little more catchet after the Cowboys beat Kansas yesterday, but not anywhere near enough.
VERDICT: Must win the Summit League tournament

South Alabama (20-5, RPI: 26, SOS: 110, L12: 10-2, RN: 8-5): The Jaguars defeated Western Kentucky Thursday to sweep the season series, and move far ahead of the Hilltoppers in the at-large pool. Best non-conference win is a home victory over Mississippi State (41), but their most impressive performance may have been taking Vandy to double OT at Memorial Gym. They also lost to a fading Ole Miss team by 3 on the road. USA hosts the conference tournament, which has been the kiss of death in the Sun Belt of late.
VERDICT: At-large if they make the Sun Belt final.

Virginia Commonwealth (21-6, RPI: 52, SOS: 151, L12: 10-2, RN: 10-5): The Rams got a big BracketBuster win at Akron. If Houston and Maryland keep winning, wins over those two teams will boost VCU's profile. They did lose to fellow bubble boys Miami and Arkansas in the San Juan tournament, which doesn't help them. The improvement in the CAA as a whole has boosted their computer numbers, but closing with UNC-Wilmington and at William and Mary leaves the Rams vulnerable to another stumble.
VERDICT: Must win the CAA tournament

Western Kentucky (20-6, RPI: 55, SOS: 145, L12: 11-1, RN: 8-5): The Toppers really needed a split with South Alabama to have any at-large chance. Their best win is Nebraska (101). Close losses to Gonzaga in Alaska and against Tennessee in Nashville will only go so far.
VERDICT: Must win the Sun Belt tournament

So, the three teams in this group who can feel the most confident about their chances are Davidson, Kent State, and South Alabama. Again, if they win their conference tournaments they'll free up an at-large spot for one of these major conference clubs.

Many times this year, you've heard me say that this year offers up anything from the most mediocre to the outright worst group of bubble teams in history. If you pay attention to most of these teams' records in their last 12 games and their road-neutral marks, you'll understand why.

Atlantic Coast
Maryland (17-11, RPI: 65, SOS: 161, L12: 7-5, RN: 4-6): After losses to Virginia Tech and Miami this week, the win at UNC is starting to fade from memory. Earlier losses to VCU, BC, Ohio, and American are still there to nag the Terps. The good news for Maryland is the homestretch, at Wake, Clemson, and at Virginia, features three winnable games, including one with a likely tourney team and another with a bubble dweller. At 7-6, the Terps still have a chance at a seed that will make it easier for them to make the ACC semifinals.
VERDICT: IN, but barely

Miami (18-7, RPI: 25, SOS: 34, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-6): What a difference a few days make, four straight wins, including home victories against Duke and Maryland have the Hurricanes in good shape. Miami also owns wins over VCU (in San Juan), Clemson, and at Mississippi State that will be benificial. The homestretch in the ACC isn't too terribly taxing either (at Clemson, Virginia, BC-despite an earlier road loss, and at FSU-despite an earlier home loss). They may also slip into a top-four seed in the ACC tournament.
VERDICT: IN, more securely than Maryland

Virginia Tech (16-11, RPI: 63, SOS: 48, L12: 7-5, RN: 6-9): The Hokies have a pulse after beating Maryland (to sweep the season series) and Georgia Tech (to split). Tech closes with BC and Wake at home, followed by a trip to Clemson. Three wins may not be enough here because of a lack of quality non-conference wins.
VERDICT: OUT

Wake Forest (16-8, RPI: 67, SOS: 95, L12: 7-5, RN: 2-7): The Deacons play at UNC tonight, looking to claim another win against a potential one seed. Home wins over Duke and BYU are the best spots on the resume. Close losses at Vandy and Charlotte are OK, but a big loss at Georgia isn't. The road-neutral record honestly leaves a lot to be desires. After the Heels, Wake hosts Maryland, goes to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and wraps things up against NC State. They really need three of four of these.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama

Atlantic 10
Dayton (17-9, RPI: 33, SOS: 39, L12: 4-8, RN: 4-6)
Massachusetts (18-9, RPI: 32, SOS: 28, L12: 7-5, RN: 8-6)
Rhode Island (20-8, RPI: 42, SOS: 100, L12: 6-6, RN: 9-5)
St. Joseph's (17-8, RPI: 54, SOS: 93, L12: 8-4, RN: 10-5)

Since the Atlantic 14 contenders (outside of Xavier) are doing a nice job of beating each other up, I'm going to skip the individual write-ups and tell you that the A14 will get three teams in. Xavier is a lock, and the two from this group of four who advance farthest in the conference tournament will also make the Big Dance.
VERDICT: Dayton and URI are running out of chances, so UMass and St. Joe's will be IN.

Big East
Seton Hall (16-11, RPI: 73, SOS: 44, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-7): I briefly had the Pirates in, but an overtime win at Rutgers and five straight losses kept them out of the conversation for awhile. A win over DePaul and four winnable games to end the season (at USF, at St. John's, Syracuse, and Rutgers) put them back. Finishing 4-0 may not be enough for them, however.
VERDICT: OUT

Syracuse (17-11, RPI: 46, SOS: 14, L12: 5-7, RN: 4-7): One of my two favorite bubble teams really needed a split against Louisville and Notre Dame, and lost both. Finishing with Pitt, at Seton Hall, and Marquette could result in quality wins. Emphasis there is on "could," since the Orange are running out of gas.
VERDICT: OUT, barring a miracle run in the Big East Tournament, and last I checked G-Mac was playing in Latvia.

Villanova (17-9, RPI: 49, SOS: 54, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-7): At one point, the Wildcats had dropped 6 of 7, including a game to Rutgers and a 22-point loss to St. Joe's. They've now won three straight after beating UConn Saturday. Best non-league win is George Mason in Orlando, though they should've beaten NC State the next night. Their next two, home against Marquette and at Louisville could give them a boost. They'll need it as they wrap up the regular season against USF and at Providence.
VERDICT: OUT

Big Ten
Ohio State (17-10, RPI: 48, SOS: 49, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-7): The Buckeyes two best wins are against bubble dwellers Syracuse (in New York) and Florida (at home). A win against Wisconsin would have been helpful, and now they need to not stumble at Minnesota (no easy task) and take two of three from Indiana (on the road), Purdue, and Michigan State (at home). They should be in the 4-5 game in the Big Ten tourney (probably against the Spartans), so a win there would also help them. Hoosiers and Spartans are ripe for the picking right now.
VERDICT: IN

Big 12
Baylor (17-8, RPI: 37, SOS: 32, L12: 6-6, RN: 7-5): The Bears withstood a record-breaking night by Michael Beasley to get a big win against Kansas State last night. The win over Notre Dame in the Virgin Islands is looking very good at the moment. And there's no shame in close losses to Washington State and Arkansas. At Colorado, Missouri, A&M, and at Texas Tech should result in at least two wins, which would be .500 in the Big 12. This year that should be enough.
VERDICT: IN

Oklahoma (18-9, RPI: 28, SOS: 6, L12: 6-6, RN: 6-6): The Sooners have been a resilient bunch this year with injuries to Blake Griffin and Longar Longar hampering them at times. No shame in losing at Texas, and wins could be plentiful down the stretch (at Nebraska, even if they are resurgent, home to A&M, at Oklahoma State, and home to Missouri).
VERDICT: IN

Texas A&M (19-7, RPI: 44, SOS: 37, L12: 6-6, RN: 5-4): The Aggies are an enigma. They beat Texas in College Station for a marquee win, but were trucked by the Horns in Austin. Ohio State and Oral Roberts are the two best non-league wins. A&M wraps up with Texas Tech at home, road trips to OU and Baylor, and Kansas at home. Yikes. That's a group of motivated teams, but the Aggies should get a split and be safe.
VERDICT: IN

Conference USA
UAB (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Blazers have no bad losses, but their two best wins are over Kentucky (in Louisville) and Houston (at home). While those victories should put UAB ahead of either of those teams and the close loss to Memphis is helpful, this is a team that has a lot of work to do. They wrap up at UTEP, home to Tulane and Tulsa, and at Memphis for a rematch. If they go 3-1 there, they should get the 2 seed in the conference tournament. Reaching the final may be enough.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama

Houston (19-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 129, L12: 9-3, RN: 7-7): The Cougars had many opportunities to keep themselves off the bubble. A win against Kentucky doesn't go as far as it used to, and games dropped against UMass, VCU, UAB, and Arizona would all help right about now. Southern Miss, at East Carolina, UCF, and at UTEP are not games that will help the RPI rise much.
VERDICT: OUT

Mountain West
UNLV (19-6, RPI: 34, SOS: 82, L12: 9-3, RN: 6-4): The Rebels host the Mountain West tournament, so they'll probably end up with the auto bid and consign BYU to the at-large pool (especially when you consider UNLV won the meeting in Las Vegas by 29). However, if that doesn't happen, it would be hard to leave out the second place team in the MWC, which typically gets two teams in. UNLV's best wins are Nevada, BYU, and New Mexico, all at home. The homestretch includes home games with San Diego State, TCU, and Utah, and a road game with New Mexico that may be an elimination game. In the end, I think they're in as the auto bid.
VERDICT: IN

New Mexico (22-6, RPI: 43, SOS: 150, L12: 8-4, RN: 7-5): 22 wins and a decent RPI would typically mean the Lobos would be in good shape to get in. The non-conference slate was soft, however (including a rare home-and-home with Hawai'i). They don't yet own a win over either BYU or UNLV, but they get them both at home on consecutive Tuesday nights. A road trip against Colorado State to end the year won't help the computer numbers at all.
VERDICT: OUT

Pac 10
Arizona State (17-9, RPI: 71, SOS: 78, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-6): The Sun Devils split with the Washington schools this week. Sweeping Arizona and beating Xavier will get the committee's attention, but more importantly, ASU doesn't have any really bad losses: Nebraska's getting better and Illinois was early. The lack of consistency is worrisome, however. A homestand with the LA schools and a road trip to the Oregon schools end the regular season. ASU should earn a split in both, but could sweep UO and OSU.
VERDICT: IN

California (15-9, RPI: 78, SOS: 59, L12: 5-7, RN: 5-3): A win at Stanford tonight would be a big boost. Most of the Bears' marquee wins have been in the league (USC, at Washington State, at Arizona State), and there's little punch in the non-league schedule (Missouri, Nevada, and San Diego State are the three best wins). However, the Bears have no bad losses at all. A closing stretch of the Washington schools at home and the LA schools away is crucial. A 2-2 finish there would put them at 9-9 or 8-10 (depending on the Stanford result tonight). This year, that could be enough. Steal another game from Wazzu and it's a whole new ballgame.
VERDICT: IN

Oregon (15-12, RPI: 57, SOS: 9, L12: 4-8, RN: 5-9): The Ducks currently sit at 6-9 in the Pac 10, but should move to 7-9 after playing at Oregon State next Sunday. UO wraps up with the Arizona schools at home. They'd need a sweep to get to 9-9 in the league. I don't see that happening with the way they've been playing.
VERDICT: OUT

SEC
Arkansas (18-8, RPI: 38, SOS: 45, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-7): The Razorbacks dropped a close one to Kentucky on Saturday, and finish at Alabama, home to Vandy, at Ole Miss, and home to Auburn. They should at least go 2 and 2 in those four. Though wins over Vandy and Ole Miss would make an Arkansas appearance a certainty. 9-7 in the SEC (even in the weaker half) with wins over VCU, Baylor, Florida, Miss. State, and Ole Miss is more than most bubble teams will have.
VERDICT: IN

Florida (20-7, RPI: 59, SOS: 113, L12: 7-5, RN: 5-5): The Gators non-conference schedule hasn't helped them at all, neither does losing to LSU, FSU, or fellow bubble boys Ohio State. However, UF can get a bump at the end of the year. Mississippi State and Tennessee both come to Gainesville, sandwiched between a dangerous road trip to Georgia and another road game at Kentucky. The Gators should do just enough to make it in.
VERDICT: IN, as long as nothing happens to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama

Kentucky (15-10, RPI: 64, SOS: 20, L12: 9-3, RN: 3-6): Look who's here. Look who has a really good shot to finish 12-4 or 11-5 in the SEC. The Wildcats get Ole Miss and Florida at home, with trips to Knoxville and Columbia in between. In the end, I think 11-5 is likely, but with the non-conference stumbles, that won't be enough.
VERDICT: OUT

Mississippi (18-8, RPI: 45, SOS: 71, L12: 5-7, RN: 6-6): It's fitting that the Rebels best non-league win was against Clemson, since they greatly resemble the 2006 or 2007 Tigers. At Kentucky, Bama and Arkansas at home, and at Georgia isn't the way to get to 8-8 in the league, which is what they need to justify a place in the tourney. They'd have to win all four. I don't see that happening.
VERDICT: OUT

To recap, these 12 teams should end up with the last at-large bids.

Arkansas
Arizona State
Baylor
California
Maryland
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Saint Joseph's
Texas A&M

These 3 should also get in; however, they will fall off the board in this order should something happen to Davidson, Kent State, or South Alabama during Championship Week.

UAB
Florida
Wake Forest

New bracket tomorrow night.

Three Weekends Left...Time to Double Up

2008-02-23T09:14:00.003-05:00

Tomorrow, we're three weeks away from Selection Sunday. Since we're heading down the homestretch, it's time for me to put out brackets a bit more frequently. Today's bracket will be the first of the week. The next update will be Monday night. I'll continue the Saturday/Monday schedule until March 10. At that point (work permitting), I'll put out a bracket every day until Selection Sunday.

To mark the milestone, I'm going to examine the bubble a bit more closely tomorrow evening. More specifically, I'm going to focus on what each of the bubble teams have left and assess their chances to be dancing in three weeks.

Shuffling the Top Line

The one seeds once again remain the same four. (Tune in Monday to see if tonight's Tennessee-Memphis game changes this.) Memphis remains the overall number one for now. Duke's mini-slide drops them to the fourth one-seed, however. After losses to Wake Forest and bracket newcomer Miami, the Blue Devils are in danger of being passed. for the top overall spot. Kansas and Tennessee round out the top line. At this point, I think Memphis is the only one of this group who isn't in real danger of falling to the two line. That could change depending on their performance tonight.

The two and three lines from Monday remain stable. Of the two seeds, North Carolina, UCLA, and (especially) Texas have a great chance to move up. Stanford would probably need to sweep the Pac 10 titles to be considered because of some non-conference stumbles. In fact, the stronger three seeds, Xavier, Connecticut, and Wisconsin, could pass the Cardinal as the season winds down. Louisville, the fourth three seed, has some non-conference smudges that, like the Cardinal, prevent them from moving up any more.

Indiana, Purdue, and Georgetown remain on the four-line. Drake drops down to a five-seed (but remains in Denver) as the result of a close loss to Bradley. Their BracketBuster game with Butler is crucial to both teams' fading hopes of a protected seed.

The bracket gained an at-large spot today based on South Alabama's win at Western Kentucky on Thursday night. For the people who've asked me about why the Jaguars are getting at-large consideration, Ken Pomeroy's RPI has them at 27 after Thursday night. That is clearly within the bounds for at-large consideration.

Florida, Massachusetts, Miami, and UNLV join the party today, replacing Dayton and St. Joseph's (Both teams lost to LaSalle this week, something you cannot do at this point of the season while fighting for a bid.), Oregon (6-8 in the Pac 10 won't cut it), and Western Kentucky (see above). Certain teams that would be out any other year are still here. I'm particularly referring to Syracuse (barely hanging on at .500 in the Big East) and Ohio State. (The Buckeyes have to be here if the Gators and Orange are, since they beat both.) But I'll get more into the soapy mess that is this year's bubble tomorrow evening.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Week
Florida
Massachusetts
Miami
UNLV

Out of the Bracket
Dayton
Oregon
Saint Joseph's
Western Kentucky (auto)

Last Four In
Florida
Rhode Island
Syracuse
Wake Forest

Last Four Out
UAB
California
Dayton
Houston

Next Four Out
George Mason
Mississippi
Oregon
Saint Joseph's

Also Considered
Illinois State
New Mexico
Villanova
Western Kentucky

E-mail me with comments or questions.

BracketBuster Preview

2008-02-21T18:45:00.002-05:00

One of the most interesting recent innovations in college basketball starts Friday night, the four-letter network's slightly inaccurately named BracketBusters weekend. (Since around 100 teams participate now, I think "inaccurate" is being kind, considering only 65 teams get in the bracket that's going to be busted, but I digress.) While it might be more fun to see middling major conference teams take a break from their league schedules to meet other bubble boys (as long as Florida and Syracuse aren't drawn against each other in this mythical event), the chances of that happening are as good as the opening round game featuring two at-larges. So, here's my preview of the TV games, going in order of increasing at-large implications. Note, I'm not counting four-letter 360's games, since I have no way of seeing them short of flying down to my parents' house this weekend.

All times are Eastern.

NO At-Large Implications

Miami (13-12, 7-6 MAC) at Valparaiso (13-12, 6-9 Horizon) - Saturday 6 p.m., four-letter Classic
Seriously... Miami is a middle-of-the-pack MAC side and Valpo has found life in the Horizon to be tough. Next!

Marist (15-12, 9-7 MAAC) at Cleveland State (16-11, 11-6 Horizon) - Saturday 6:30 p.m., four-letterU
This is a matchup of teams who had real tournament chances about three weeks ago. The Red Foxes were in the lead pack in the Metro Atlantic earlier in the season, but now don't belong in the same conversation as teams like Siena, Rider, Niagara, and Loyola. (Even though with a road win at Rider and a 19-point home win over Niagara, they could make noise in Albany in March.) Meanwhile, the Vikings threatened to make the Horizon a multi-bid league after jumping out to a 7-0 league start, including a win over Butler at home. A five-game losing streak immediately followed, but Gary Waters' team has done a nice job of righting the ship by winning four of their five.

UC-Santa Barbara (19-6, 9-4 Big West) at Utah State (17-9, 8-4 WAC) - Friday 9 p.m., four-letterU
The Aggies were leading the WAC until their recent three game road trip, which turned into a three-game losing streak. With an RPI of 92 and an underwhelming SOS (best win at home to Oral Roberts), they don't have the at-large chance they usually have while contending. The Gauchos, who are trying to keep pace with Northridge and Fullerton in the Big West, have a slightly better RPI (88) and own a win over UNLV, who may have a chance at an at-large out of the Mountain West.

Rider (18-9, 11-5 MAAC) at Cal State-Northridge (17-6, 10-2 Big West) - Saturday 9 p.m., four-letterU
Two teams you may see as 14 seeds on Selection Sunday. It's a chance to see the Thompson brothers, Jason and Ryan, in a real road challenge. Considering the Broncs may need to beat Siena on their home court to get to the Dance, this matchup is a good piece of practice for them. The Matadors have lost only once at home all year (to Fullerton by 8) and the tiny Matadome will be rocking.

Nevada (16-9, 9-4 WAC) at Southern Illinois (15-12, 10-6 MVC) - Saturday 4:30 p.m., four-letterU
The Wolf Pack currently has one top 100 win (at home to Utah State). They can make it two with a win in Carbondale. The Salukis currently sit a game behind Illinois State for second in the Valley, and since they've beaten Drake, have a good chance at stealing the auto bid at Arch Madness. A win here would boost their confidence heading down the stretch.

At-Large Implications Only if There's Another Lunar Eclipse in the Next Three Weeks

Wright State (20-6, 12-4 Horizon) at Illinois State (18-8, 11-5 MVC) - Sunday 6:30 p.m., four-letterU
The Raiders once again sit two games behind Butler in the Horizon. They also have beaten the Bulldogs in Dayton. Their RPI of 70 is in the neighborhood of at-large consideration, but they have no big wins outside of Butler. If this game was played a few weeks ago, a win at Redbird Arena would probably have helped the cause. However, the Redbirds are 5-5 in their last 10, after starting 6-0 in the Valley. Illinois State's RPI currently sits at 52, impressive considering they don't have a win over a team rated better than 56. And who says the RPI isn't flawed??

Creighton (17-8, 9-7 MVC) at Oral Roberts (18-6, 14-1 Summit) - Saturday 3 p.m., four-letter2
The closest the Blue Jays may get to the tourney this year is watching it at the Qwest Center. The Golden Eagles just had their dreams of a perfect Summit League season dashed by the IUPUI Jaguars Saturday night, and are looking for a name scalp to make up for it. Their RPI of 44 is definitely within the traditional boundary for at-large consideration, but even with a win Saturday the actual schedule doesn't measure up.

Serious At-Large Implications

Virginia Commonwealth (20-6, 13-3 CAA) at Akron (19-7, 9-4 MAC) - Saturday 11 a.m., four-letter2
More on the line here for the Rams than the Zips. The Zips were left out by the Committee last year despite a 25-7 record and will have to win out and win the MAC tournament to match that win total (taking the guys in the Indy hotel room out of the equation). They won't get at-large consideration this year for the same reason as last year, their out-of-conference schedule is too weak. On the other hand, the Rams have a very good chance at getting in, if they win out and make the Colonial final. They just cannot lose this one, however.

George Mason (19-8, 11-5 CAA) at Ohio (17-9, 8-5 MAC) - Saturday 1 p.m., four-letter2
The Bobcats were looking like a reasonable at-large candidate until a recent 2-2 run in the MAC. The Patriots have some very good wins (Kansas State and Dayton) and some really bad losses (East Carolina and Georgia State). If they didn't drop those two games, they're almost certainly in the field. Now, they may need to win the CAA tournament and like VCU, they can't lose to a slightly inferior MAC opponent.

Davidson (19-6, 18-0 Southern) at Winthrop (16-9, 9-3 Big South) - Friday 7 p.m., four-letter2
Thanks to recent stumbles by UNC-Asheville, the Golden Eagles are back in front of the Big South. Davidson is trying to go unbeaten in the SoCon for the second time in four years, though this year's feat would be more impressive thanks to four more league games on the slate. Yes, the Wildcats went 1-6 in D1 games in the non-league portion of the schedule, but the losses will give the Committee a lot to think about if the Cats don't get the auto bid, UNC by 4, Duke by 6, UCLA by 12, NC State by 1 (though losses to Western Michigan and Charlotte aren't quite the same). In the final analysis, this is another case of a team with a borderline profile that cannot afford to lose.

Kent State (22-5, 11-2 MAC) at St. Mary's (22-3, 10-1 WCC) - Saturday, 11:59 p.m., four-letter2
The Gaels are almost certainly in the field at this point, but the Golden Flashes are the MAC's only shot at an at-large. (Wins over Mason and Illinois State help their case, a season-opening one-point loss to a terrible Detroit team is forgivable, as is the neutral loss to Xavier and road losses to UNC and Ohio, losing at Toledo is dicey.) A win in Moraga, where it is virtually impossible to win would immediately boost Kent State's profile and keep them on the board should they get knocked out in the MAC tournament. I don't think Randy Bennett's Aussie contingent will let that happen though.

Playing for Seeding

The game of the slate is at Hinkle Fieldhouse between the battling Bulldogs, Drake (21-3, 14-2 MVC) and Butler (25-2, 14-2 Horizon). Both teams are in the field, so this game may very well be for a protected seed, though I still think that Butler has a better chance for one long term, even if my current bracket doesn't reflect this. This will be the first chance many fans will have to see Drake play this year, and that's a shame. They're a hard team to pin down. They're not terribly athletic or talented, in fact, most of their opposition is equal or slightly better talent-wise. They just have a great team ethic and will to win. Both teams play a similar style, so expect a very close, defensive game in the low 60s.

There are a few non-TV games that deserve a mention. Big Sky leader Portland State goes to Fullerton to take on the Big West's second place team. Niagara has a good shot in the MAAC and will get a stiff test at Appalachian State, who still has a shot in the SoCon North (aka the non-Davidson division). Georgia Southern goes to Ohio Valley leaders Austin Peay.

Since the season is heading for the homestretch, I am as well. I'm moving to a Saturday morning/Monday evening bracket schedule this week.

Four Weeks to Stake a Claim

2008-02-18T13:28:00.003-05:00

Just about a month from today, millions of people across the country and around the world will start filling out brackets for fun (certainly not for financial gain, NCAA). In the next four weeks, we'll probably come to a better understanding of which 34 at-large teams will make the tournament. As for now, I think pretty much everyone is stumped. In fact, with some of the inconsistency in the middle of the major conferences, you could probably knock four at-larges out of the field and not have much of a problem. Unfortunately, we're still stuck with placing 65 teams in this week's bracket.

There's no change among the one seeds this week, but there is a slight shuffle in the order. Memphis passes Duke for the top overall spot. The Tigers are still unbeaten, and the Blue Devils drop after their Sunday night loss at bracket newcomer Wake Forest. Tennessee is now the number three overall seed, while Kansas drops to fourth. This makes the ideal semifinal matchups Memphis-Kansas and Duke-Tennessee.

Georgetown tumbles from the two line to the four line after their loss to Syracuse (which kept the Orange in the bracket...barely) and Texas moves up to replace them. The Longhorns now own wins over two one seeds (Kansas and Tennessee) and a two (UCLA) and along with the Bruins have the best chance to jump onto the top line. North Carolina and Stanford round out the two seeds.

No change among the three seeds as Connecticut, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Xavier stay steady. The aforementioned Hoyas lead off the four line, where they're joined by Big Ten leader Purdue (who moves up from a six seed) and holdovers Indiana and Drake. If the Boilermakers keep it up, they'll probably pass the Badgers soon. (Their non-conference slate is currently holding them back.)

As for the bubble, Florida drops out as a result of two losses this week. The close loss to Vanderbilt would have been OK by itself, but losing at home to LSU was unforgivable. The opposite is the case for Syracuse. The Orange stay in by following an unforgivable loss at South Florida with a good win at home over Georgetown. SU is still on life support, however. They likely will need a split at Louisville and Notre Dame this week to stay in. Mississippi falls out. Their conference struggles are hurting their computer numbers, not that their non-conference profile was that great to begin with. Oregon jumps in, despite being very up and down lately. Arizona State and Dayton are hanging on at the moment after splitting their two games this week. The Sun Devils beat Stanford, but lost to Cal; the Flyers lost to Duquesne and beat Temple.

There are also two Sun Belt teams in the field this week. Western Kentucky plays South Alabama in Bowling Green on Thursday with the regular season title on the line. The Hilltoppers have the auto bid this week, since the Jaguars dropped a game to Middle Tennessee. South Alabama stays in as an at-large, even with a close loss to Mississippi. They've beaten Mississippi State and the fact that they've been winning games when teams like Florida and Mississippi aren't helps them. The Jags will probably be the only Sun Belt team in next week if they win on Thursday night.

Coming on Thursday, a BracketBusters preview.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Pac 10 - 7
Big 12 - 6
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 5
SEC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 4
Sun Belt - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Week
Boise State (auto)
Oregon
Wagner (auto)
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky (auto) (Note: South Alabama is in as an at-large.)
Winthrop (auto)

Out of the Bracket
Florida
Massachusetts
Mississippi
UNC Asheville (auto)
Sacred Heart (auto)
Utah State (auto)

Last Four In
Dayton
South Alabama
Syracuse
Wake Forest

Last Four Out
Florida
Houston
Mississippi
UNLV

Next Four Out
California
George Mason
Massachusetts
Miami

Also Considered
UAB
Charlotte
Duquesne
Illinois State
New Mexico
Seton Hall
Villanova
Virginia Tech

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Five Weeks Away

2008-02-11T19:15:00.000-05:00

This week's bracket features some major moves (and likewise some falls) at the top of the bracket and a certain level of stability at the bottom of the at-large pool, with only two new at-large entrants.

Change at the Top

Duke replaces Memphis as the number 1 overall team this week by a whisker. The win over North Carolina plays a major role in this, but so does the fact the Blue Devils are more regularly playing teams capable of giving them a game than the Tigers are. I don't really see this changing until Memphis plays Tennessee a week from Saturday. Speaking of the Vols, they replace UNC on the top line this week. Sunday morning, I was prepared to give the 4th one seed to UCLA. The Bruins promptly lost to a disappointing Washington team in Seattle. However, UCLA stays in the West region, where they would face Tennessee in the ideal regional final.

Stanford moves up to the 2 line, replacing Wisconsin. The Badgers drop after losing at home to Purdue and struggling at a bad Iowa team last week. The Cardinal are quietly putting together a nice run, winning seven Pac 10 games in a row. They are in position to more than make up for their embarrassing performance in last year's tournament. Georgetown holds steady on the 2 line, but there are two Big East teams breathing down their backs.

Louisville and Connecticut are making up for early season slip ups and find themselves on the 3 line. (In fact, the only reason the Cardinals didn't pass the Hoyas this week is their inconsistent play in the non-conference part of the season.) Xavier and the aforementioned Badgers are the other two 3 seeds.

The people of Des Moines can rejoice. Drake's impressive win at Redbird Arena (and overall winning streak) moves them into a protected seed spot. They have a huge game at SIU Wednesday night. Even though the Salukis are down, their fans will be up for this one. Indiana drops down to from the 3 line, while Butler and Texas hold steady on the 4 line. Michigan State and Washington State fall into the dreaded 5-12 game this week. Teams on the 4 line need to try to hold off Kansas State and Notre Dame. These two teams are really starting to come together right now. Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are really getting in a groove for the Wildcats and the Irish are winning the games they need to in the Big East.

At the bottom of the bracket, George Mason drops out after losing at Old Dominion. (This isn't 2006 or 2007, Patriots. And 25 point swings against conference opponents aren't helpful either.) Seton Hall also falls out after three straight conference losses, including one to Villanova in Philly, which broke the Wildcats five-game league losing streak. Arizona State comes back into the fold after completing a sweep with Arizona. Massachusetts becomes the fifth A10 team in the bracket this week as well based on their win over Rhode Island Thursday. The overtime loss at Temple Sunday made me think long and hard about including the Minutemen, but they're in for the moment.

Conference Breakdown
Big East - 8
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 6
Atlantic 10 - 5
Big 10 - 5
ACC - 4
West Coast - 2

Last Four In
Arizona State
Dayton
Massachusetts
Syracuse

Last Four Out
George Mason
UNLV
Oregon
Seton Hall

Next Four Out
Houston
Illinois State
NC State
Ohio

Also Considered
Akron
UAB
California
Charlotte
Creighton
Minnesota
San Diego State
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

New This Week
American (auto)
Arizona State
Belmont (auto)
BYU (auto)
Massachusetts
Morgan State (auto)

Out of the Bracket
George Mason
Hampton (auto)
Jacksonville (auto)
Lafayette (auto)
UNLV (auto)
Seton Hall

E-mail me with comments or questions.

Banana Peel List 2008 - Missouri Valley through WAC

2008-02-09T09:48:00.001-05:00

Missouri Valley - Drake has a four game lead on Illinois State and just completed a sweep of the Redbirds. Illinois State still has a shot at an at-large, though I think their failure to beat Drake once and relatively weak non-conference slate hurts them. My feeling is the only chance the Valley gets two teams in this year is if a team other than the Bulldogs takes Arch Madness. My pick is Drake.

Mountain West - This is currently a three-team race between BYU, UNLV, and San Diego State. The Cougars own a game lead on both the Rebels and Aztecs and the best at-large profile of the three. If they claim the regular season title, BYU will have a legit at-large claim. They may need it. Since the conference tourney is on their home court, I'm picking UNLV.

Northeast - Four teams have a legit shot in this ultra-competitive league. Sacred Heart, last season's regular season runner-up is currently at the top of the league, but Wagner and Robert Morris are tied with the Pioneers in the loss column. Quinnipiac is a game behind the three leaders. The Colonials have the best talent in the league and the best non-conference win (at Boston College), while the Seahawks have a coach, Mike Deane, who's looking to take his fourth different school to the tournament. Sacred Heart has the most difficult schedule of the four leaders, as they're the only one who has to play the other three twice. I think this will catch up with them in the end. This is another conference where the regular season winner has home court advantage in the tournament. I think the sole Wagner-Robert Morris matchup on February 23 will be crucial. My pick is Robert Morris based on their talent and home court advantage.

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay has a two game lead on Murray State, Morehead State, and Eastern Kentucky in the loss column. The Governors and Racers split their two meetings, each winning on their home courts. The Govs end the season at Morehead and EKU. Murray State goes to Morehead State today, as they try to rebound from a loss to the EKU Colonels on Thursday. Since they've been the most consistent team this season, I pick Austin Peay to win the auto-bid.

Patriot League- Perennial league power and preseason favorite Holy Cross looked competitive throughout most of their non-conference slate, but now sit in the basement of the Pat League. That's opened things up considerably, as last year's bottom feeder, Lafayette has a game lead in the loss column on American, Bucknell, and Lehigh. This race is far from over. While the Leopards did beat the Bison in their first meeting, they lost to the Eagles and Mountain Hawks. The top two teams in this league host the quarterfinals and semifinals (two four-team pods), with the highest remaining seed getting the final. I pick Bucknell to rise above the rest to re-assert their dominance in the conference.

Southern - There's a nice race brewing in the North Division between 10-4 Chattanooga and 9-4 Appalachian State. The Mountaineers almost got an at-large last year, but their resume is lacking this year. But this may not matter because of what's happening in the South Division. The Davidson Wildcats may not have claimed any big time scalps in the non-conference portion of the season, but they are taking care of business in the league. They're currently 14-0 and own a five-game lead on Georgia Southern in the South Division. They haven't clinched yet, as the SoCon plays 20 league games. There is no team that understands the importance of winning the conference tournament as much as Davidson after not receiving an at-large bid in 2005 after running the table, so they won't disappoint this year.

Southland - Early in the season, there was talk of Stephen F. Austin (winners at Oklahoma) or Sam Houston State (wins at Texas Tech, UW-Milwaukee, and St. Louis and at home to Fresno State and UCF) maybe earning at-large bids. That talk has ended as the conference season has unfolded. The Lumberjacks and Bearkats are both chasing Lamar at the moment. Southeast Louisiana and 2006 champ Northwestern State are also in the hunt. Lamar has already beaten SHS and lost to Stephen F. Austin, while the Lumberjacks were beaten by the Bearkats. While there is still a long way to go in the regular season, Sam Houston State is my pick, as I think their early season successes will translate into wins at the conference tournament.

Southwestern Athletic - Alabama State has a two-game lead on Southern and a three-game cushion on Mississippi Valley State, Jackson State, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. While the Hornets' sole league loss is to Jackson State, they did beat their closest challenger by 15 in their first meeting in Baton Rouge. Since the league is currently the lowest-rated in Division I, the winner is probably destined for the opening round game in Dayton. I pick Alabama State to fill that slot.

Summit League - Oral Roberts is looking to make the tournament for the third-straight year out of the former Mid-Continent Conference. They have a two-game lead on IUPUI (the preseason pick of a few publications). The Eagles have already beaten the Jags in Tulsa. They meet again in Indy a week from today, but I think they'll meet for a third time in the conference tournament in Tulsa (but not on ORU's home court). I think Oral Roberts will use the semi-home court advantage in the third meeting to claim the auto-bid.

Sun Belt - Much like the Southern Conference, one division is more balanced than the other. The Sun Belt West is a five-team race right now. Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas-Little Rock, and Denver are 6-5, with North Texas and New Orleans a game back. The real action is in the East though where South Alabama and Western Kentucky are tied at 11-1, with both harboring realistic at-large chances. The Jags won in Mobile, but they must go to Bowling Green on February 21. USA has a huge advantage in that they host the conference tournament. Well, that would be a huge advantage except that home teams have had difficulty winning the Sun Belt tournament in the recent past. I think that trend continues this year, USA will have a nervous selection Sunday, as Western Kentucky is my pick for the auto bid.

West Coast - St. Mary's just kept the race going by beating Gonzaga in Moraga on Monday night. I think both teams will be in the field at the end. There is the potential for a third team from the WCC, however, as San Diego is currently tied with the Gaels and the Bulldogs for the league lead. The three-team race should continue for at least a few more games, as Toreros beat the Gaels in San Diego, but lost in Spokane. The Toreros also host the league tournament. In the end, I think this league has a better chance at getting three bids than one. San Diego will pull some upsets and win the tournament at home.

Western Athletic - This is a conference that's grown accustomed to multiple bids and tournament wins, but may get neither this year. No team has much of a shot at an at-large bid, so the conference tournament in Las Cruces will be crucial. Utah State currently leads Boise State by a game and New Mexico State, Nevada, and Hawai'i by two games in the loss column. The Aggies have already beaten the Broncos and Wolf Pack once, but lost by 30 in Las Cruces. Since NMSU knows how to beat Utah State and hosts the league tournament, they're my pick to steal the auto bid.

In summary, here are my auto bid picks.
AmEast - Maryland-Baltimore County
A-Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big West - Pacific
Colonial - Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Pennsylvania
MAAC - Rider
MAC - Ohio
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Drake
MWC - UNLV
NEC - Robert Morris
OVC - Austin Peay
Pat League - Bucknell
SoCon - Davidson
Southland - Sam Houston State
SWAC - Alabama State
Summit - Oral Roberts
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WCC - San Diego
WAC - New Mexico State

New bracket tomorrow evening.

Banana Peel List 2008 - America East through MEAC

2008-02-08T17:13:00.000-05:00

The NCAA Tournament's format is pretty simple, really. 65 teams make the field. 34 of these are at-large qualifiers. 31 reach the field by winning their conference's automatic bid. In 30 of these leagues, the conference tournament winner qualifies. (The Ivy League is still the only hideout.) In a few of these leagues, the winner of the automatic bid is usually a team that's going to get into the field with an at-large bid, with a few notable exceptions through the years. But the vast majority of automatic qualifiers are the only representative from their conference.

Since most teams have reached the halfway point of their conference schedule, it's time to bring back an annual tradition. In the Banana Peel List, I take a look at the races in the leagues that may only get one bid to see who has the best shot at winning the conference's regular season title. I also take a stab at predicting who will end up with the auto bid. This year, I'm going to ignore these conferences since they should undoubtedly get more than 1 bid: ACC, A-10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC. That means a few conferences who normally wouldn't be here are covered this year: C-USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, West Coast, WAC.

As always, during Championship Days, I'll come back and check my picks against what actually goes down.

Today, I'll review 12 leagues, tomorrow the remaining 12.

America East - Maryland-Baltimore County has a game lead on Vermont. More importantly, the Retrievers own a season sweep of the Catamounts. If they can survive the opening rounds in Binghamton, the conference final will be at UMBC. My pick is UMBC.

Atlantic Sun - Belmont defeated league leader Jacksonville in their only regular season meeting last night to move to the top of the table. Watch out for East Tennessee State though, even if they lost at Belmont earlier. The Bucs have beaten the Dolphins and host the Bruins on Valentine's Day. They don't have the advantage of hosting the conference tournament in Johnson City this year though. That's in Nashville, home of Belmont (even if it is in archrival Lipscomb's gym). My pick is Belmont.

Big Sky - Portland State won at Northern Arizona last night to take sole possession of the league lead. Weber State is currently a game back. The Wildcats beat the Vikings in Ogden, with a return scheduled for next Saturday. The regular season champ hosts the conference tournament, so the winner on the 16th has the inside track to making the Dance. My pick is Portland State thanks to the rematch factor.

Big South - Winthrop's reign may be over. 7-7 Kenny George and his UNC-Asheville Bulldogs have a 3-game lead on the Eagles and High Point. This is another league where the winner has home court advantage in the conference tournament, so my pick is UNCA, even if they lose at Winthrop on March 1.

Big West - This race is starting to get very interesting. Pacific, Cal State-Northridge, Cal State-Fullerton, and UC Santa Barbara are beating each other up. The Tigers and Matadors are currently tied atop the league at 7-2, with a split in the season series. Fullerton and Santa Barbara are a game back in the loss column, with the Gauchos owning a sweep of the Titans. The Gauchos have lost to both Pacific and Northridge on the road, however. This one will go down to the conference tourney in Anaheim, where I think Pacific will prevail.

Colonial - In the end, I think this league gets both George Mason and VCU in. The Patriots won the only regular season meeting between the two, but the conference tournament is at VCU's former home court. I pick Mason to win the regular season and get an at-large on the strength of their non-conference schedule and VCU to get the auto bid.

Conference USA - Memphis and the 11 dwarves. That's all you need to know. Sure the Tigers have to host Houston and play UAB twice, but despite what John Calipari says, they aren't losing in this league. Plus, they host the conference tournament. Memphis gets the only Conference USA bid for this year.

Horizon League - Cleveland State caused an early sensation in this league by opening up a 2-game lead on both Butler and Wright State. Now, well, order has been restored. Butler has a two-game lead on Wright State and the Vikings are three games back. After surviving a scare at league newcomer Valpo on Tuesday, the Bulldogs stay on the road to take on the league's two Wisconsin members, who are currently tied with Cleveland State for third. Butler is my pick for the auto bid this season. Of course, if they lose to Wright State again this year, we may see the same two-bid scenario from last year.

Ivy League - The Ancient Eight is still in the early stages of the conference season. Going into the season, there was talk that this would be the end of Penn/Princeton dominance. Right now, Cornell leads the league at 4-0, but guess who's behind them at 2-0... I'm not rocking the boat, my pick is the Penn Quakers.

Metro Atlantic - It's a five team free-for-all in the MAAC. Rider (and Jason Thompson, the best player you've never heard of) has a game lead on Siena. Loyola, Marist, and Niagara are all two games back in the loss column. (The Saints may even join them as they take on Marist tonight.) With as close as these five teams are, it's going to be a fun four days in Albany. My pick is Rider. Thompson is very good and this is a team that's improved since I saw them at the Old Spice Classic, where they had their moments.

Mid-American - This is a league that may get an at-large after several years of going without. Kent State leads Ohio and Akron by a game in the East. The Bobcats have beaten the Flashes this year, while the Zips have beaten Ohio and lost to the Flashes. Western Michigan leads Central Michigan by two games in the West. I think both the auto bid and any potential at-large will come from the East, however. My pick is Ohio University.

Mid-Eastern - Morgan State beat Hampton last night to force a tie at the top of the league. They meet again on February 25 on the Bears' home court. Watch out for Norfolk State. Even though the Spartans lost to Hampton at home, they still play them in Hampton and they also own a win over Morgan State in their only meeting. My pick is Morgan State. Todd Bozeman's coaching experience will be the difference.

I'll start off with the Missouri Valley tomorrow.

Banana Peel List Delayed

2008-02-07T19:20:00.000-05:00

I'm holding off on this for a day, as there are a lot of big games in the one-bid leagues tonight that could change things.

Super Monday Bracket

2008-02-04T17:19:00.000-05:00

Less Than Six Weeks to Go

Bracket Number Four was a bit easier to put together than last week's edition, but there is a lot of shuffling going on in the world of college basketball that will make the next six weeks exciting and nerve-racking for fans across the country. UNC rejoins Memphis, Kansas, and Duke on the top line of the s-curve, but they should not feel comfortable there at all. They barely got by a typically fading Florida State team after losing star point guard Ty Lawson, who may not be available for the matchup with Duke in Chapel Hill Wednesday night. Tennessee drops back down to the 2-line, despite two road SEC wins. The Vols are joined by UCLA, Georgetown, and newcomer Wisconsin. The Badgers replace Indiana, who drops to the 3-line. The Hoosiers need to right the ship fast, and a win against Northwestern Sunday was a good start. Michigan State, and Xavier are still 3 seeds, and Stanford has jumped up to join them. Remember how I said the Cardinal were among a group of teams that needed to separate themselves to prove they deserved a protected seed? Sweeping the Washington schools this weekend was a good effort, and now the Cardinal are arguably the only team who can deprive UCLA of the Pac-10 regular season title. Washington State drops down to line 4 after being swept by the Bay Area schools. Louisville, Butler, and Texas are holding on to protected seeds at the moment. Pitt fell down to the 5 line. Watch for the Panthers, Drake, Marquette, and UConn to move up in the coming weeks.

Thoughts from the Wachovia Center

I drove up to Philadelphia on Saturday to see the Syracuse-Villanova game. I've seen the Orange twice this season in person and Nova four times (three times at the Old Spice Classic over Thanksgiving). SU is playing with a lot of heart right now, especially considering the personnel woes they face. (Josh Wright must be kicking himself right now for quitting the team.) I moved the Orange up to the 11 line this week, since their profile is still borderline, but looking better. The rough section of the Big East schedule awaits. The only sort of breather between here and MSG for the Orange is a road trip to South Florida next Wednesday. It's murderer's row outside of that.

I dropped Nova this week. Four straight league losses and 13th place in the Big East just isn't good enough, no matter what happened in the non-conference schedule. The Wildcats also have a lot of rough games ahead, starting with a Big Five clash with bracket newcomer St. Joe's tonight.

There are few newcomers this week. Outside of the Hawks and three new auto bids (Rider in the Metro Atlantic, Sacred Heart in the Northeast, and Portland State in the Big Sky), I went local. Maryland and George Mason make their debuts in the bracket. The Terps are starting to come together at the right time and Mason seems to have stopped their inconsistent play. The fact the Patriots beat VCU in their only regular season meeting helps their resume, which includes impressive non-conference wins over Dayton and Kansas State. (Sure they lost to East Carolina and Georgia State, but lots of teams have head-scratching losses this year.)

I do think there is room for movement in the at-large pool. Right now, the SEC and Big 12 both have six teams in, while the ACC and Pac-10 have four and five respectively. I think the chances of these numbers remaining the same in six weeks time is slim. If Arizona State gets hot again, Cal builds on their Washington sweep, and Oregon stops their slide, the Pac-10 could be back up to 6 or 7 bids. Virginia Tech and NC State are improving quickly and could add to the ACC's total. Ohio or Akron could give the MAC its first at-large in an eternity, while Illinois State could get back in if they knock of Drake this week. There's a lot of basketball to be played.

Bids by Conference
Big East - 9
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
Big Ten - 5
Pacific 10 - 5
ACC - 4
Atlantic 10 -4
Colonial - 2
West Coast - 2

New This Week
George Mason
Maryland
Rider (auto)
Portland State (auto)
Sacred Heart (auto)
Saint Joseph's

Out of the Bracket
Arizona State
Marist (auto)
Massachusetts
Northern Arizona (auto)
Villanova
Wagner (auto)

Last Four In
George Mason
Maryland
Saint Joseph's
Seton Hall

Last Four Out
Arizona State
Illinois State
Massachusetts
Ohio

Next Four Out
Brigham Young
California
NC State
Oregon

Also Considered
Akron
UAB
Boston College
Charlotte
Creighton
Duquesne
Houston
Miami (FL)
Missouri
New Mexico
Providence
San Diego State
Texas Tech
Villanova
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky
Wright State

E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.

In the future, I'd like to start regular mailbag columns. This will both let me see what you're thinking about the season and will give you some insight as to what I'm looking at (and for) when putting together each week's bracket.

Coming Thursday...the annual Banana Peel Report for one-bid leagues.

Almost a Fire Sale...

2008-01-27T20:20:00.000-05:00

Changes All Around

Bracket Number Three pretty much gave me a headache this afternoon. This week, we have some new one seeds, some shuffling in lines two through four, a certifiable mess in the at-large pool, and very little change at the bottom of the s-curve. Taking it from the top, Memphis and Kansas are exactly where you'd expect the last two unbeatens in the country to be, as the first and second one seeds. However, UNC and UCLA have slipped down to the 2 line. Duke moves up to the top line in the East region since they're unbeaten in the ACC and looking impressive. Tennessee is the new one seed in the West, despite the loss to Kentucky at midweek. It's very hard to deny the top RPI team a one seed, especially considering their schedule. UNC is the number 2 seed out West now, while the Bruins have the second spot in the East. Why is this not reversed? Well, the top two teams from a conference should never be in the same region, so these two teams go out of their natural regions for this projection. Georgetown remains on the 2 line, but Indiana (again, despite a loss to UConn) replaces Michigan State, who slips down to the 3 line. Xavier, Wisconsin, and Washington State remain as 3 seeds this week. Pittsburgh, Texas, and Butler remain on the 4 line, while Louisville, new to the bracket last week, moves up to join them. Dayton, who crushed Pitt earlier in the season, drops down to the 5 line after 3 straight Atlantic 10 losses. I was tempted to drop the Panthers after their loss to Rutgers, but outside of Louisville, no one on line 5 or 6 is screaming "Protected Seed" at the moment. Arizona and Stanford need another Pac-10 win or 2. Baylor could get there with another Big 12 road win. I'm not convinced that St. Mary's and Drake are quite as good as their computer numbers suggest. Marquette and Vandy have road issues.

Bracket Bingo

Seriously, the committee may have to raffle off the last four or five at-large spots at the end of the season. Teams certainly don't seem to want to earn them on the court right now. After another week of general inconsistency, the Big East is the big winner in this projection. 10 Big East clubs are in this week. Do I think this will last? No. If Maryland had beaten Duke, this evening, the Terps would've been in at the expense of Syracuse. The Orange are in because they beat Providence in a bubble battle today at the Dome, BC lost two ACC games this week, and Maryland is just a hair short of being in. Miami was also considered for this spot, but the Hurricanes form outside of today's home win against Clemson has left much to be desired. UConn and Seton Hall are the two Big East newcomers this week. The Huskies win at Indiana without suspended Jerome Dyson and Doug Wiggins was impressive, and it followed a road win at Cincy and a big home win against Marquette. These are three results that should worry the rest of the league. The Pirates, meanwhile, have reeled off 4 straight conference wins, including ones over Louisville and fellow bubble boys Providence.

Oregon falls out this week, as being swept on consecutive weekends is never a good thing in the Pac-1o. Illinois State also drops out of the bracket. After two conference losses, the holes in the profile are starting to become more evident. Kansas State and Purdue are making moves in their leagues, which put them in this week. Arkansas is also in. The Hogs' SEC opponents haven't really helped them, but their win over Baylor in Dallas looks better and better.

Finally, Cleveland State no longer has the auto-bid from the Horizon after two straight conference losses, so the Vikings are out. However, Mississippi State is unbeaten in the SEC, so the Bulldogs take CSU's place in the bracket.

Bids by Conference
Big East - 10
Big 12 - 6
Pacific 10 - 6
SEC - 6
ACC - 4
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
West Coast - 2

New This Week
Arkansas
Connecticut
Kansas State
Lamar (auto)
Marist (auto)
Mississippi State (auto)
Nevada-Las Vegas (auto)
Purdue
Seton Hall
Wagner (auto)

Out of the Bracket
Boston College
Cleveland State (auto)
Illinois State
Miami
Oregon
Providence
Quinnipiac (auto)
San Diego State (auto)
Siena (auto)
Stephen F. Austin (auto)

Last Four In
Arizona State
Arkansas
Villanova
Syracuse

Last Four Out
Boston College
Maryland
Oregon
Providence

Next Four Out
Brigham Young
Illinois State
Miami
Saint Joseph's

Also Considered
California
Charlotte
Duquesne
Florida State
George Mason
Missouri
NC State
Ohio
Texas Tech
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington

E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.

Results of an Interesting Week

2008-01-20T21:42:00.000-05:00

Here is Bracket Number Two.

Little Change at the Top

Despite the interesting results of the past week, very little has changed. However, there is now some hope for those teams on line 2 that hope to break the Memphis, Kansas, UNC, UCLA monopoly on the top line. (Notice the change in the order.) The teams on the second line that stand to benefit the most are Duke and Tennessee. As the loss to Maryland and close call at Georgia Tech proved, the Heels are beatable. The Blue Devils have two chances to do this on the schedule. Tennessee still has to go to Memphis. With apologies to an inconsistent Gonzaga team, the Vols have the best chance to end the Tigers hopes of a perfect season. The 2 line can also take solace in USC's win over UCLA at Pauley on Saturday. Chinks are emerging in the armor of the top four. It's far too early in the season to think that this line will remain intact for the next eight weeks.

Line 2 remains the same as last week, with the Vols and Blue Devils joined by Georgetown and Michigan State. Washington State, Xavier, and Indiana remain on line 3. Wisconsin replaces an inconsistent Texas, however. The Longhorns are now a 4 seed, along with Dayton and newcomers Butler and Pitt, jumping up from last week's five line. Texas A&M's two blowout losses this week and Marquette's no-show at UConn today send them down to the 5 line.

Flux in the Middle

Lines 5 through 12 this week really illustrate some of the inconsistency teams showcased over the past 7 days. For starters, four at-larges fell out after lackluster weeks, while another is perilously close to falling out based on some early road struggles in the conference. Florida State is gone after three straight conference losses. So is Arkansas, since the Hogs dropped consecutive games to the two worst teams in the SEC East. A home loss to newcomer Providence did UConn in (even with a win over Marquette earlier today). The nonconference schedule and two conference losses in a row put the Huskies out, but they could easily be back next week after games with Cincinnati and Indiana. St. Joseph's fell out thanks to a loss to Charlotte. UMass replaces the Hawks after beating Dayton at UD Arena and the aforementioned 49ers yesterday. USC gets in thanks to the big road win at UCLA, which showed that they weren't that far off in the non-conference. Louisville also joins the bracket this week, all the way up on the 7 line. The Cardinals are healthy and becoming dangerous...just ask Marquette. The loss to Seton Hall Saturday is the only thing that really kept them from moving up.

Syracuse needs to watch it. I fear I'll see a bad loss at the Verizon Center tomorrow night. Things won't get any easier for the Orange though, as another bubble team, Providence, visits the Dome Sunday. SU will need to avoid the foul trouble that cost them against Villanova yesterday to get even a split out of this week.

Several teams showed this week that they may be ready to make big moves in the coming weeks. Stanford got a big home sweep of the Arizona schools to get onto the 6 line. They have a very important game with archrivals Cal on Saturday, where the Bears post players should give the Lopez brothers a huge challenge. Arizona State looks more like they're for real after getting a split in the Bay Area. They should move up further if they can do well this weekend (beat UW and play WSU close). The Cougar-Sun Devil game Saturday could be a slugfest. Baylor is currently unbeaten in the Big 12, but the Bears have so far faced some of the conferences lesser lights. Dates at A&M and hosting Oklahoma this week will tell us more about this team.

Meanwhile, if it's January, it must be time for certain ACC teams to start their mid-season swoon. Clemson is 3-3 since the beginning of the year and Miami 2-2 in that same timespan. Both are now on the 9 line. These are two teams in the mix for 3rd place behind UNC and Duke, but they haven't quite proved they can play with the big boys.

My internet connection is currently acting up, so I'm going to cut this post short. To close, here is the key information for this week's bracket.

Bids by Conference
Big East - 9
Pacific 10 - 7
ACC - 5
Big 12 - 5
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
SEC - 4
Horizon - 2
Missouri Valley -2
West Coast - 2

New This Week
Alabama State (auto)
Cornell (auto)
Davidson (auto)
Louisville
Maryland-Baltimore County (auto)
Massachusetts
Northern Arizona (auto)
Providence
Quinnipiac (auto)
Siena (auto)
Southern California
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth (auto)

Out of the Bracket
Arkansas
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (auto)
Chattanooga (auto)
Connecticut
Dartmouth (auto)
Delaware (auto)
Florida State
Idaho State (auto)
Niagara(auto)
Northwestern State (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Wagner (auto)

Last Four In
Illinois State
Oklahoma
Providence
Syracuse

Last Four Out
Connecticut
George Mason
Kansas State
Purdue

Next Four Out
Arkansas
Creighton
Florida State
NC State

Also Considered
Brigham Young
Mississippi State
UNLV

E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.

Week of the Unexpected

2008-01-18T17:46:00.000-05:00

You remember St. Louis...the team that set a shot-clock era record for futility by managing only 20 points in a loss to George Washington? What a difference a week makes, as number 21 Rhode Island fell victim to Rick Majerus's charges in a rather empty Kiel (or whatever it's called now) Center, 68-61.

This result is just an example of both of this week's key themes so far. 1) It's not going to be easy for the favorites in the Atlantic 10 and 2) you just don't know what's going to happen night in and night out anymore. This second theme is simply a continuation of something that happened every week during football season. Well, up until the National Championship game, that is.

To me, the biggest shock of the week wasn't St. Louis more than tripling their scoring output of the previous Thursday. No. My jaw nearly hit the floor when I saw this result pop up on ESPN's bottom line Wednesday night.

ARMY 53 HOLY CROSS 39

Um...did I see that correctly? Army, who typically is (but at pushing .500 this year isn't) to put it nicely (and please picture Scott Van Pelt impersonating Stephen A. Smith here) TERRIBLE!, won at the Hart Center.

Yes, you're eyes aren't deceiving you for once, Chris...

OK, I just wanted to be sure.

Anyway, the Crusaders are now 0-2 in the Patriot League. (They lost at Lafayette Saturday.) So they won't be popping up in the bracket on Sunday.

Cleveland State will be sticking around this week after beating Butler 56-52 last night. After the second win over a ranked opponent in their history, the Vikings now have a game and a half lead at the top of the Horizon League. Butler will have to settle for an at-large this week.

Two teams that will make it in this week: Louisville, after a 20-point win over Marquette, and Massachusetts. The Minutemen defeated Dayton on Wednesday night, and they'll likely replace the St. Joseph's Hawks who fell to Charlotte that night.

Weekend Preview

I'll be paying attention to two games in particular on Saturday out of selfish interests. Syracuse has a big home bubble tilt with Villanova. A visit from Rutgers ended the Orange's two-game conference losing streak. The Wildcats 12-3 record while impressive on the surface, includes 7 wins over teams ranked 150 or below in the RPI and a 1-2 mark in true road games.

Florida hosts Kentucky at night. Both teams suffered close losses to the SEC's Mississippi contingent earlier in the week. The Wildcats tournament hopes are slim at this point, and a road win in Gainesville would build on the momentum of last Saturday's Vanderbilt win. The Gators simply need to make their free throws and stop shooting so many threes. The result of the game in Oxford could have been a bit different had UF done either.

Sunday night Oregon goes to Pullman to play Washington State. The Ducks dropped one in Seattle Thursday night and, with a loss to the Cougars, would fall to .500 in the Pac-10 heading into a home weekend with the LA schools next week.

The LA schools meet at Pauley Saturday with USC staring straight at a 1-4 Pac-1o start. You can bet OJ Mayo and the boys are looking forward to a date in Corvallis with the helpless Beavers next Thursday.

Drake and Illinois State are both unbeaten in the Missouri Valley heading into their meeting in Des Moines tomorrow. One team will suffer their first league loss, but expect to see both of them in the bracket Sunday.

E-mail you comments and questions to orangegator13@yahoo.com.

Year 3, Bracket 1

2008-01-13T20:05:00.000-05:00

Selection Sunday is a mere nine weeks away, and since most teams have a few league games under their belts now (I'm talking to you, Big 12.), I figured it was time to deliver to you, my few and faithful readers, my first projected bracket of the season.

I have big plans for this season (and beyond) that I won't quite get into yet. Since I'm not in the process of job hunting and relocating this season, I'll be posting more and delivering more analysis as the season progresses. But without further delay...here is Bracket Number One.

The Top Quarter of the S-Curve

For as early in the season as it is, the top seed line was unbelievably easy to set up. The consensus is that North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas are the top four teams in the country at the moment, and I don't disagree. I've placed these four teams in this order in the bracket, setting up a potential UNC-Kansas and Memphis-UCLA Final Four. There's room for movement on the two and three lines. Georgetown. Michigan State, Duke, and Tennessee are the two seeds; four clubs who could all move up with slip ups by the top seeds. Indiana leads the three line (where things start to get really interesting), but two matchups with the Spartans could see those two teams switch places as the season progresses. Washington State was a candidate for a two seed going into their game at UCLA Saturday afternoon, but the loss at Pauley and weak non-conference slate makes them a three. Look out for Xavier, who beat the Hoosiers in a Thanksgiving event in the Chicago suburbs. Even though the Musketeers dropped a close one to Tennessee and got trounced by a under the radar Arizona State squad, they've been crushing teams of late and the Atlantic 10 schedule will be a boost to their computer numbers this year. Texas, a solid side who isn't missing Kevin Durant much, rounds out the three line. The four line includes a couple of teams who are quietly winning under the radar (Texas A&M and Wisconsin), a solid Marquette team who had an odd week at home (beating Seton Hall by 5, then steamrolling Notre Dame), and Dayton. I still can't believe St. Louis took the Flyers to overtime last night. Of course, the Billikens did revert to their woeful offensive ways in the extra period.

The Five Line

On the five line, Vanderbilt would be higher, if not for following up a struggle with a bad South Carolina team at home with a loss away to Kentucky. Normally, losing at Rupp wouldn't lead me to do that. Turnovers, bad shot selection, and an apparent interest in not winning a game against an inconsistent opponent will though. Gus Johnson was on Defcon 6 yesterday afternoon during the late stages, which completely made my weekend. Butler is a team due to move into a protected seed with a slip up on the four line. Arizona and Pittsburgh, however, could go either up or down based on injuries. I anticipate the Wildcats will move up with Jerryd Bayless's return, but the Panthers depth will be challenged in the Big East.

The Rest of the At-Larges

I had to do a lot of shuffling at the bottom of the at-large pool since there are quite a few ACC, Big East, SEC, and Pac 10 teams crowding lines 7 through 11. West Virginia moved up to an 8 seed after their convincing win over Syracuse today (I'm shaking my head as I type this...two terrible road losses for the Orange this week. They're hanging on as a 10 seed now.) As for my other team, the Gators are in as a 9 seed this week, but if they play with as much heart as they did in their first two conference games...watch out! I had to flip Gonzaga and Boston College on the 11 and 12 lines for balance (and to avoid potential conference rematches), and Florida State and Arizona State on the 10 and 11 lines. The committee may be de-emphasizing avoiding early conference rematches this season, but I'll believe it when I see it.

These Auto Bids Will Straighten Themselves Out

As for the last five lines of the bracket, the vast majority of automatic bids are down here. We're down an at-large this week, as Cleveland State leads the Horizon instead of Butler. The Vikings are on the 13 line. There are quite a few teams leading their conferences early who have losing records against Division 1 opponents and terrible computer profiles
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-7)
Jacksonville (6-8)
Hartford (8-9)
Idaho State (3-10)
Northwestern State (3-9)
Dartmouth (5-8)

In non-conference play, the SWAC and Ohio Valley as a whole have been terrible against Division 1 competition. The SWAC is currently 8-86. Yes, that means they haven't cracked .100 in winning percentage! (They're mired at .086.) The OVC is 16-62, good to barely crack .200 (.205 actually). The OVC will have BracketBusters to improve their mark, but the SWAC doesn't participate in this event, so they may be out of chances to get to 10 percent.

I'll be back later in the week with some previews and analysis. Before I go, here's some key information about this week's bracket.

Bids by Conference
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Pacific 10 - 6
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
Horizon - 2
Missouri Valley -2
West Coast - 2

Last Four In
Baylor
St. Joseph's
Boston College
Gonzaga

Last Four Out
Louisville
New Mexico
NC State
Southern California

Next Four Out
Brigham Young
George Mason
Kansas State
Virginia Commonwealth

Also Considered
Alabama
California
Duquesne
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Providence
Purdue
Wake Forest

E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.

Last Year's Posts

2008-01-13T19:50:00.001-05:00

Can be found here...

Going to Indy

2006-03-30T05:49:00.000-05:00

So much for me not travelling. One of my friends managed to get tickets, so I'll be heading up Friday. Pictures and a report will obviously follow. As for my picks...

Florida over George Mason The run ends here for the Patriots. They've played a lot of talent so far, but Michigan State, North Carolina, and UConn all had times this year where they didn't play well as teams. The Gators, however, have a ton of talent and are an unselfish team. That will be the difference.

LSU over UCLA LSU is also playing their best basketball at the right time. The Bruins guard play should make this game reasonably interesting. I'm still planning on buying the biggest Coke the RCA Dome offers right before tip.

Championship: Florida over LSU I know it's hard to beat the same team three times, so maybe this is the homer in me coming out. Noah, Richard, and Horford have done a very good job against Thomas and Davis so far this year though, and I think UF's guard play will also be an advantage. I think the potential of an LSU double ends here.

I will be back Wednesday.

Final Four week

2006-03-27T19:10:00.000-05:00

So, how are your brackets doing? If you're like me, you've crumpled them up, burned them, and flushed the ashes down the nearest john. I can't really hide the fact that I'm ecstatic that UF is still alive. I'm not so happy that my work schedule may make it impossible for me to get up to Indy. I never thought that I would be watching two of the Final Four teams a weekend ago in Jacksonville.

What a phenomenal weekend of basketball. (Well, except for Memphis-UCLA, videotapes and DVDs of that game will soon outsell Ambien.) It wasn't quite 2005, but I think ESPN Classic's replay weekend will be something special in a couple of weeks.

The early game Saturday night will feature two teams who refuse to lose. The late game may, appropriately, put barn animals like me to sleep. I doubt UCLA-LSU will be as painful to witness as 2000's Michigan State-Wisconsin snoozefest, but it seems like each Final Four in Indy has to have a game like that. Maybe Glenn Davis will hit some threes and wake everyone up (in shock).

Picks and more commentary as the week moves on.

Sweet Sixteen picks

2006-03-22T20:41:00.000-05:00

We're down to our last sixteen. One of my co-workers picked the Final Four using the old which mascot could beat which mascot test. If her predictions turn out to be correct, a week from Saturday your National Semifinals will feature Florida battling George Mason and Duke playing Bradley. Bring your own bellbottoms and platforms to the Hoosier Dome, folks.

I'm going to do things a little more scientifically...let's see if we can't get these 16 down to eight.

Thursday - Atlanta
Duke over LSU I've seen the Tigers way too much than I'd like to admit this year, and I can't say I'm terribly impressed. They were extremely lucky to beat a dreadful A&M side Saturday afternoon. A lot of people think they have a chance thanks to Glenn Davis, and if he had any post moves, I'd agree with them. However, he's best at shooting them from 5 feet out and the Blue Devils can defend that.

West Virginia over Texas I picked this a week ago and I'm sticking to it. The Mountaineers have a lot of firepower and are a better team than the one that lost to the Longhorns early in the season in Kansas City. They'll have a lot of fan support too.

Thursday - Oakland
Memphis over Bradley The run ends for the Braves...the Tigers will have too much for them, just as they did against Oral Roberts and Bucknell.

UCLA over Gonzaga This is another pick I made a week ago that I'm sticking with. If Adam Morrison is sick, I'm feeling pretty confident in this pick.

Friday - Minneapolis
Villanova over Boston College. BC is the media's darlings while Villanova is the team that refuses to lose. I'll go with the team that won't lose. Allen Ray wasn't affected at all by that eye injury in the first two rounds, and with him at 100 percent, the Wildcats have too many weapons.

Florida over Georgetown If Ohio State was still playing, I'd change my pick to the homer one. The Gators have been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament. They've led all the way in both games, against two teams that previous Billy Donovan-coached squads would've folded against. As long as they play with passion and intent, UF will keep winning.

Friday - Washington
George Mason over Wichita State For the right to lose to UConn Sunday, the Patriots will take advantage of their virtual home court and beat the Shockers for the second time in a little more than a month. If this game is as good as the first one was, I'll be more than glad to get it going on my laptop.

UConn over Washington Washington is playing up to its potential at the right time, but it won't be enough. (Unless UConn just picks this moment to lose its collective mind, which is a definite possibility.)

Enjoy the games...Elite Eight picks Saturday.

Weekend #1 was a lot of fun

2006-03-20T20:31:00.000-05:00

What a great four days of hoops that was...well, except for Syracuse failing badly Thursday night and the second set of games on Friday afternoon (Monmouth and Southern Illinois fighting it out to see who'd end up with the second lowest point total for the first round up to that point, after Belmont).

On Friday night in Jacksonville, I entered the only sports bar in the world where most of the crowd was cheering for favorites. There were some UConn fans, some Pitt fans, some KU fans, some UK fans...all of whom were cheering for each other's teams. Did they cheer for George Mason to beat Michigan State? Uh, no. How about the non-Husky fans...did they cheer for Albany to pull off the greatest upset in history? That'd be a negatory. It was one of the most annoying moments I've witnessed as a hoops fan. I was happy to see the Pitt fans get their comeuppance against Bradley yesterday in the now infamous hearthrob game. I wonder if the committee thought of that when they were drawing up the matchup.

Mike Slive: Hey, let's see if we can make it so Bradley and Pitt would play in round two.
Craig Littlepage: Why?
Slive: CBS would font it as the BRAD-PITT game.
Craig: That'd be hilarious!
Karl Benson: Maybe, Verne Lundquist or someone would make a joke about Jennifer Aniston or Angelina Jolie being at the game.
All three: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

It was also nice to see Jim Nantz and Billy Packer offer up a mea culpa last night late in the Villanova-Arizona game. George Mason, Bradley, and Wichita State proved a lot this weekend, so did Northwestern State, Winthrop, and Albany. The day when a 16 beats a 1 is coming. One day very soon the committee will underseed some club from a one-bid league and the streak will end.

Thursday night picks coming up tomorrow.

Bracket Picks

2006-03-14T20:37:00.000-05:00

Here are my picks for this year.

First Round Upsets
Atlanta Bracket
UNCW over GW, only because it's in Greensboro and Pops Mensah-Bonsu may not be back (and if he is, is he going to be 100%).

Cal will survive NC State and Syracuse will do the same against Texas A&M.

Oakland Bracket
Bucknell over Arkansas. Sure, Fayetteville is far closer to Dallas than Lewisberg, PA, but did that stop the Bison last year (beating KU in Oklahoma City).

San Diego State over Indiana. Hoosiers are playing with a lot of emotion, but the Aztecs have too much size for a team whose only post presence is Marco Killingsworth.

Minneapolis Bracket
Wisconsin over Arizona. The Big Ten style will wear down an underachieving Wildcats squad.

Milwaukee over Oklahoma to set up the battle of the alma maters on Saturday. Panthers aren't as good as they were last year, but the Sooners are very inconsistent and ripe for an upset.

Northern Iowa over Georgetown. Panthers get out of their funk to beat a Hoya team that struggled to end the year.

UF will barely survive the mentor/student matchup with John Pelphrey's South Alabama Jaguars.

Nevada will beat Montana more easily than most think.

Washington Bracket
UAB over Kentucky. The Wildcats are exposed by an opponent they lost to two years ago.

Utah State over Washington. Huskies are a team who tend to play to the level of their opponents. Aggies will rough them up and knock them out. (Not bad considering they shouldn't even be in the bracket.)

Michigan State will have an easier time of it against George Mason than they would have had if only Tony Skinn not punched Loren Stokes in the groin.

Wichita State will beat a Seton Hall team that's on a downswing.

Second Round Upsets
Atlanta Bracket
West Virginia is too good for an inconsistent Iowa team.

Oakland Bracket
Pitt over a young Kansas squad, who's just not quite ready for primetime.

Washington Bracket
Wichita State over Tennessee. The Vols are running out of gas.

Regional Semi Upsets
Atlanta Bracket
West Virginia will continue another great run by knocking out a Texas team that doesn't do well in big games.

Oakland Bracket
Pitt gets Memphis. Tigers youth and lack of tough competition over the last couple of months will catch them by the tail.

Regional Finals
Minneapolis Bracket
Ohio State will pound Villanova inside to make it to Indy.

My Final Four
Three of the four teams that were in St. Petersburg seven years ago. Ohio State gets to replace their 1999 banner with a 2006 one in a matter of weeks.

Duke over UCLA.
UConn over Ohio State.

Final--Duke runs out of gas and loses to a veteran UConn squad.

My reaction to the bracket

2006-03-13T19:16:00.000-05:00

I was pretty much in shock after watching the Selection Show Sunday for three reasons: 1) The selections themselves (two in particular), 2) the seedings, and 3) for the shabby treatment given to Selection Committee Chair Craig Littlepage by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer. While I don't agree with much of what the committee did this year, the reaction of the top announcing team wasn't very graceful. One suggestion in particular drives me batty. Packer suggested that the committee use a five-year chart to evaluate teams. To me, this can lead to only one thing...setting the number of bids per conference based on money/drawing power (bowl games) or some goofy, mathematical coefficient system (UEFA Champions League). Each season must be taken independently. This is NOT the NBA. Players only have four years to play and often transfer. You'll mix freshmen, juco transfers, and upperclassmen every year. Coaches are hired and fired. In other words, this isn't the answer. Perhaps the committee following its own rules would be a start.

To me, one of those rules was blatently violated in terms of seeding this year. Past results played entirely too much of a role in seeding teams this year, particularly from some of the one-bid leagues. My second alma mater, Milwaukee, was a beneficiary of an 11 seed, when they should've gotten a 13. This team isn't as good as they were last season. Granted, there isn't a 12 or a 13 I'd necessarily move up to an 11 (except for Bradley, who I projected as a 10). Certainly not Montana, who didn't win the Big Sky regular season title, nor Utah State, who shouldn't even be in the field. (It's kind of funny that I'm trashing these teams, considering I think two of them will win their first round games...but they got good matchups.) Pacific got a 13 seed, which was a shock, since both they and the Big West are down this year. They're another team who could fortuitously spring an upset, thanks to the committee shipping Boston College to play on a Thursday in Salt Lake City after a knock-down, drag-out run through the ACC tournament.

But that gets me into picks...which will be coming tomorrow night.

I also will argue with Tennessee as a 2. That's really the only huge argument with the top four lines. You could quibble with Kansas' 4 and Iowa's 3, but I didn't think either one of those was too outlandish. As for the Vols, while they should be ahead of UF, since they did beat the Gators twice, they haven't finished well. Therefore, UNC should really be ahead of them. Jay Bilas mentioned on ESPN's Bracketology show that he thought they had been moved up a line for bracketing purposes. Are you telling me they didn't have another way to correct an issue like that?

If you want some real insight (including how Western Kentucky, not Cincinnati or Michigan or Florida State, was the next team up), read Andy Katz's column on ESPN.com today. I recommend this if you have a cold and need your head to explode.

A brief post-mortem

2006-03-12T19:03:00.000-05:00

Here's a summary of my results...

27 seeds correct (including the two 16 seeds in the play-in game.)

2 teams completely incorrect (Creighton and Cincinnati didn't make it, while Air Force and Utah State, two teams on the Next Four Out group (!!) got in).

Of the 37 seeds I missed, 19 were off by one line. 18 were off by more than one (13 by two lines, three by three, and one by four [Southern Illinois]).

I'm very surprised that Tennessee got a 3 seed, and North Carolina got a 2. Gonzaga getting a 3 makes sense, considering that many of the high-profile games they scheduled were either losses (Memphis, Washington) or didn't pan out (Oklahoma State, Maryland).

More detailed analysis after I actually get to look at the bracket (as compared to just checking out my own results).

Final Projection

2006-03-12T17:28:00.000-05:00

Here it is.

I had to do a little adjusting after Kansas beat Texas to win the Big XII tournament. KU is the last four, while Tennessee drops to a five. Iowa is about to beat Ohio State to win the Big Ten. I would've liked to move the Hawkeyes up a line and tweak Ohio State's location; however, the two, three, six, and seven lines are full of Big Ten teams already. I would've had to start all over. With less than half an hour until the real thing comes out, there isn't the time.

I'll have a post-mortem up later this evening. One big change, Michigan is out and Seton Hall is in. I looked at the numbers one last time, and their finish (3-7 in their last 10) and road/neutral record (5-7) are too bad to ignore. Seton Hall has its flaws (5-5 in the last ten, 5-7 in road/neutral games), but the Pirates are 5-4 against the top 50, while the Wolverines are 3-8.

Bids by Conference
Big East 9
Big Ten 6
SEC 6
Missouri Valley 5
ACC 4
Big 12 4
Pac 10 4
Colonial 2
C-USA 2

Last Four In
George Mason
Creighton
Seton Hall
Texas A&M

First Four Out
Florida State
Hofstra
Michigan
Missouri State

Next Four Out
Air Force
Houston
Maryland
Utah State

Off the Board (In --> Out)
Delaware State --> Hampton
St. Joseph's --> Xavier
Michigan --> Seton Hall

Selection Eve

2006-03-11T11:59:00.000-05:00

Here's my penultimate projection for this season. I'll post another during the Big Ten championship game tomorrow afternoon.

On College Gameday...Jay is joking with Digger about still having 174 teams in his bracket. I don't have that problem.

Duke is back as the number one overall seed after losses by Villanova and UConn. I keep the Wildcats as the number two overall seed. I'm not going to punish them too much for losing to Pitt while Allan Ray was unavailable for most of the second half. Thankfully his eye injury is not at all as bad as feared. If Duke loses to Wake today, the one seeds will probably be jumbled tomorrow. Pitt and UCLA move up to the three line, while Illinois and Tennessee drop to the four line after their results yesterday. BC moves onto the fourth line, replacing West Virginia.

At the bottom of the bracket, watch out for some changes on lines 15 and 16 if there are some upsets in the conference championship games today and tomorrow. Three teams with area code like RPIs are in their league finals: Vermont (America East), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC), and Hampton (MEAC). Wins by one or more of those teams could shakeup the play-in game, and cause a ripple effect on the last couple of lines.

The bubble is still in flux, especially with South Carolina still alive in the SEC, Nebraska in the Big 12, and Wake Forest in the ACC. The A-10 getting a second bid and Syracuse's run through the Big East reduced the number of remaining spots, and a Utah State win in the WAC tonight would do the same. Seton Hall and Florida State are casualties from Thursday. George Mason is probably going to be the next team to fall out. Texas A&M, Bradley, Michigan, and Creighton also can't feel too safe either.

Conference Breakdown
Big East 8
Big Ten 7
SEC 6
Missouri Valley 5
ACC 4
Big 12 4
Pac 10 4
Colonial 2
Conference USA 2

Last Four In
Bradley
Michigan
Missouri State
Texas A&M

First Four Out
Creighton
Florida State
Hofstra
Seton Hall

Next Four Out
Air Force
Colorado
Maryland
Utah State

Out and In
Out ---> In
Fairleigh Dickinson --> Monmouth
Northern Arizona --> Montana
Manhattan --> Iona
Western Kentucky --> South Alabama
Missouri State --> Creighton
Seton Hall --> Syracuse
Florida State --> St. Joseph's

Three days to Selection Sunday

2006-03-09T18:29:00.000-05:00

Sorry I haven't been able to post much during Championship Week, work has been extremely busy. I did update the bracket to reflect who's won automatic bids this week. A full update will come late tomorrow night (after UF-Arkansas and the SEC quarterfinals). However, I suspect...

Syracuse will be in

Florida State, Michigan, Hofstra, George Mason, Missouri State, and Creighton will get long. long looks

George Washington will certainly not be on my top four lines.

Check back in very late tomorrow/early Saturday to see for sure.

One week 'til Selection Sunday

2006-03-05T17:03:00.000-05:00

We're one week from Selection Sunday, meaning this week's bracket was quite difficult to put together. There was a lot of flipping the seeds on lines 7 through 12 to avoid early intraconference matchups. There were a few significant shifts in the at-large pool as well. Five at-large teams were replaced; however, with good showings in the conference tournament, they could all return. There are going to be a lot of bubble teams cheering for Bucknell, Gonzaga, Nevada, and San Diego State to make their leagues one-bid. (Utah State and Air Force won't be among those rooting for the last two.)

I think the top four lines are becoming pretty stable. Memphis is the shakiest one seed right now, and they are very solid. Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Texas all have a case should they falter in the C-USA tournament (at home). UNC is now a two after their big win at Duke. LSU could've gone that high, but not after they struggled with Ole Miss in Baton Rouge. I think Florida and Pittsburgh are the shakiest fours. Florida's impressive win at Rupp Arena today keeps them above GW for the moment. The Gators will have a hard quarterfinal matchup and a chance to avenge a tough loss if Arkansas makes it out of the first round Thursday.

Last Four In
Bradley
Florida State
Northern Iowa (I had to flip Indiana, a true 11 seed, with the Panthers.)
Texas A&M

Last Four Out
Air Force
Colorado
Creighton
Syracuse

Next Four Out
Brigham Young
Hofstra
Texas-El Paso
Utah State

Banana Peel List
I can officially close this year's Banana Peel List since the remaining one-bid leagues determined their regular season champs this week. Now the test will be to see if they can build on their NIT bids.

Big West: Pacific
Metro Atlantic: Manhattan
Mid-American: Kent State
Northeast Conference: Fairleigh Dickinson
Southwestern Athletic: Southern

Pennsylvania doesn't need to worry about the NIT. They won the Ivy League Friday night to become the first team to book a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Tonight I'll be watching the CAA and MAAC semifinals on Full Court, and the WCC semis on the Deuce. Currently, I'm watching Fairleigh Dickinson battle Robert Morris in the NEC semis.

I'll be updating autobids as the week goes on. Hopefully, I'll have some time to get a bracket out on Wednesday night. (It all depends on my day job.) If not, I'll post my second to last bracket of the year on Friday night.

Enjoy Championship Week!
CD

Two weeks 'til Selection Sunday

2006-02-26T13:13:00.000-05:00

Championship week is edging closer and closer. Lots of shuffling in this week's bracket. Plus, we also have some regular season winners in the one-bid leagues (who are at least guaranteed an NIT spot).

Short Summary
Syracuse is back in as a 9 seed (but a true 10 seed, I had to flip them with Michigan to avoid early conference matchups). Arizona and Kentucky are barely hanging in there. They're only seeded as high as they are because of the collapse of the Missouri Valley's challengers. The Valley still has five teams in this week, but that number is looking very dicey. Northern Iowa, Creighton, and Southern Illinois are all struggling. The Salukis would've been out had they not beaten the Panthers yesterday. Watch out for Bradley.

On the top lines, Memphis is back up to a #1, Texas drops to a 2, Pittsburgh to a 3. UNC jumps up to the three line, since they're really a force to be reckoned with at this point of the season. Ohio State is now a 2, Illinois moves up to a 3, and Iowa falls to a 4 (thanks to losses to Minnesota and Illinois). Michigan State is down to a 6 (and I can't see how anyone rates them any higher, especially if they lose to Indiana). None of the four seeds are terribly strong at the moment, Florida needs to beat Alabama badly. UCLA probably needs to win the Pac 10. Iowa needs to be more consistent. GW needs to hope they don't get passed by a power conference team.

UTEP moves into the bracket as the third team in from Conference USA. Houston was making a strong case too, until they lost to the Miners. The chances of four from C-USA gets better and better as teams like the Valley challengers and Utah State struggle. Seton Hall falls out after losing to St. John's (bad) and DePaul (worse).

Last Four In
Southern Illinois
UAB
UTEP
Utah State

First Four Out
Bradley
Colorado
Indiana
Texas A&M

Next Four Out
Hofstra
Florida State
Houston
Seton Hall

Falling Out
Akron
Davidson
Indiana
IUPUI
Lipscomb
Seton Hall

League Breakdown
8 Big East
6 Big Ten
6 SEC
5 Missouri Valley
4 ACC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Conference USA
2 Colonial
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic

Banana Peel List
The Banana Peel List is getting shorter and shorter as teams clinch regular season titles and move into conference tournaments (the exercise that make this whole list pretty much irrelevant). Here are the teams that have clinched their regular-season conference titles:
Atlantic 10 - George Washington
Big Sky - Northern Arizona
Big South - Winthrop
Colonial - George Mason and UNCW tied
Horizon - Milwaukee
Mid-American - Kent State
Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot - Bucknell
Southland - Northwestern State
Southern - Georgia Southern and Elon tied
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
West Coast - Gonzaga.

As for the rest...
America East
Albany has a game lead on Binghamton. Great Danes travel to UMBC to wrap up the regular season, while the Bearcats go to Vermont.

Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb and Belmont are tied for the league lead right now. FAU is a half-game back, but their conference season is over. Belmont hosts ETSU today. Lipscomb hosts Kennesaw State.

Big West
Pacific continues to lead Cal-Irvine by a half game. The Tigers still have a game in hand on the Anteaters.

Ivy Group
Penn leads Princeton by two games with three to play. Quakers are very close to becoming the first team officially in.

Metro Atlantic
Iona and Manhattan are tied atop the league. The regular season will be decided on the Jaspers' home floor tonight.

Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson has a only a one game lead on Central Connecticut State and Monmouth. The Knights lost at Monmouth, and now must play them again in Teaneck on Monday night.

Southwestern
Southern leads Grambling by two games with two left, so they've clinched at least a tie for the title. The two won't meet again unless it's in the SWAC tournament.

Enjoy the week! I hope to be able to post a new projection at midweek (based on work considerations).
CD

Looking into the crystal ball - 19 February 2006

2006-02-19T15:18:00.000-05:00

My friend Keith asked me to put on my Mr. Tony style turban and use my incredible psychic powers (hardy har har) to see what would go down three weeks from today. Here's what I came up with.

The four one seeds will probably stay as they are. You can take any two from Memphis, Texas, and Villanova, but Memphis drops to a 2 because of their conference and lack of substantive tests since January.

Twos and threes are very open. The longer Gonzaga keeps on winning they stay as a 2. West Virginia will crack the 2 line soon and Pitt will drop to a 3.

Tennessee and Florida is huge Wednesday night. If UT wins, I think they'll stay as a 2. If UF wins, while they won't automatically be a two, it could start them on a roll. They're at Alabama, hosting Georgia, and at Kentukcy to close the regular season. Conceivably, UF can go down to a 4, but I think they'll split the difference and stay as a 3.

Where the Big Ten teams will end up is also up in the air. I believe Ohio State will be a three. Iowa will drop to a four and Illinois will stay there. A lot of people like Michigan State, I think they are very overrated. They really deserve a five seed, but will probably get a three or four. The schedule favors Ohio State and Wisconsin to finish 1-2 in the league. However, the Badgers midseason dip in form will move them to a 5 seed. I really, really wanted to move them up a line or two this week, but too many teams are playing well right now. Indiana will fall out of the bracket, Michigan will be an 8 or 9 seed.

Pac 10...one more bad loss and Arizona is out. If they keep winning, they stay in. Unfortunately, they play both Arizona State and Washington State, two teams who give them trouble. Even though their last three are at home, they'll lose one of them to a team they should beat and be out. That opens the door for Stanford, who still plays at Washington and they get UCLA at home. Those are two big chances for the Cardinal. I think they will end up getting the fourth bid out of the Pac 10 over Arizona. Cal will end up with a higher seed than a fading Washington squad.

The Valley is for real folks, and they will get four teams in. Missouri State or Bradley both have a good chance to steal a fifth place, and the Bears will do it. They're the sixth-rated RPI conference. I read this week that normally there would be no argument about the sixth-rated league getting five teams in if it was warranted and there were some middling schools in the top five (ahem, ACC). However, since the phrase "Missouri Valley" is next to the 6 in the conference rankings, people have an issue. No Valley team will be a top four seed when all is said and done though.

Maryland will end up out (at FSU, UNC, and UVa, with Miami at home). GW will fall out of the top four lines (same issue as Memphis, bad conference, the A-10 won't get a second bid unless Temple beats Duke, which won't happen).

Here's a short summary of what I think will shake down on Selection Sunday...
Top Four Seeds
Atlanta: Duke, Gonzaga, Ohio State, UCLA
Oakland: Villanova, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Illinois
Minneapolis: Texas, West Virginia, Florida, NC State
Washington: UConn, Tennessee, Iowa, North Carolina

Last Four In
Stanford will sneak in.
UNCW and Missouri State will take advantage of some major conference stumbles (Maryland and Syracuse).
UAB will get in as C-USA's second team.

First Four Out
Syracuse (the 1-5 stretch before the Louisville win is a killer)
Maryland {The schedule is too much for a team that's struggling.)
Indiana (a fiasco)
Vanderbilt (The Commodores will make a late run in the SEC that will fall short.)

Fire away!

Bracket Projection for Sunday, 19 February

2006-02-19T10:22:00.000-05:00

Shakeups abound in this week's bracket.

Short Summary
Syracuse and Maryland are out, so is Miami, who has pretty much collapsed since their inclusion last week. Cincinnati comes in after their win at Syracuse. They're listed as a 9 seed in the bracket, but they're a true 10, who switched places with Kentucky to prevent early conference rematches. Arkansas also enters as a 12, thanks to their win over Florida.

Gonzaga moves up to a 2 seed, replacing Illinois. The Illini drop to a four, while Iowa and Ohio State are now on the 3 line. It was difficult to shake up the 2 and 3 lines anymore than I did thanks to a whole slew of teams losing yesterday (Pitt, West Virginia, Florida, Tennessee).

Some bubble teams can breathe a little easier now. Alabama's win at Tennessee shows how impressive they've been after losing Chuck Davis. Kansas' demolition of Missouri shows how far the Jayhawks have come in the three weeks since they lost in Columbia. Kentucky's win at South Carolina puts the Wildcats in better position.

Others showed they still have a little work to do. Maryland struggled to beat Georgia Tech at home, not a good omen and a big reason why they're out. Syracuse beat Louisville, but it was too little too late (for this week anyway) after they got blown out by Cincy. Indiana is barely hanging on as an 11. Cal had a good win against Arizona Thursday, then lost to ASU Saturday in double OT. Arizona-Stanford this afternoon could very well be an elimination game (if the Pac 10 tournament wasn't going to be very wide open).

BracketBusters impact
Yesterday's BracketBusters had a little bit of an impact on the bracket, but not as much as I thought. George Mason and Missouri State's wins moved them up. Bucknell losing at Northern Iowa in double OT moved them down, but that's because of other movement in the 7-10 lines. (UNI didn't move up at all, again more of a function of what other teams are doing). Wichita State also wasn't hurt terribly by their home loss to George Mason. Utah State's comeback win over Northwestern State dropped the Demons down a line and kept the Aggies in as an at-large.

Last Four In
Arizona
Arkansas
UAB
UNCW

First Four Out
Colorado
Maryland
Stanford
Syracuse

Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Louisiana Tech
Temple

League Breakdown
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 SEC
5 Missouri Valley
4 ACC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Colonial
2 Conference USA
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic

Banana Peel List

America East
Albany still holds a game and a half lead on Binghamton. The two won't play unless they meet in the conference tournament.

Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb and Belmont are tied for the league lead right now. Belmont has the automatic bid for the week based on their better RPI. East Tennessee, Gardner-Webb, and Florida Atlantic all are a game back. Watch out for the Bulldogs, who are on a roll, beating ETSU, Belmont, and Lipscomb in the past week.

Atlantic 10
George Washington still has a three game lead on Charlotte. Time is running out on Xavier, Temple, and LaSalle.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona continues to hold a two and a half game lead on Montana. The two won't meet again unless it's in the Big Sky tourney.

Big South
Winthrop has a half-game lead on Birmingham-Southern are tied at the top of the league. The two meet Saturday to close out the regular season and determine the top seed in the Big South tournament.

Big West
Pacific still leads Cal-Irvine by a half game. The Tigers have three games in hand on the Anteaters. The two won't meet again unless it's in Anaheim in the Big West tournament.

Colonial
George Mason took down Wichita State yesterday. Now they have to see if they can carry that momentum into Hempstead for their meeting with Hofstra (2.5 back) Thursday. UNCW is a game behind.

Horizon
Milwaukee leads Butler by only a half-game. Losing to Missouri State killed the Panthers faint at-large hopes. UWM wraps the regular season up Tuesday as they host Detroit. Butler hosts Youngstown State and visits Detroit. It will be a very close finish.

Ivy Group
Penn smoked Princeton on Valentine's day. The Tigers then beat Cornell in 2 OTs before losing to Columbia. Quakers have a two game lead over the Tigers right now.

Metro Atlantic
Iona continues to lead Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.

Mid-American
Akron and Kent State are tied atop the East. Zips have this week's automatic bid thanks to a slighly better overall record. Miami is just a game out. Akron plays in Oxford Wednesday. Miami then travels to Kent on Saturday. Stay tuned.

Mid-Eastern
Delaware State leads Coppin State by two games.

Mid-Continent
IUPUI continues to hold a two game lead on Oral Roberts.

Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson now has a three game lead on Central Connecticut State and Monmouth. Knights play the Hawks twice one week, however.

Ohio Valley
Murray State leads Samford by three and a half games.

Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. The two meet Wednesday in Lewisberg.

Southern
Davidson moves back into a tie for first with Georgia Southern in the South division. Elon leads the North Division with an identical 9-4 mark. The Wildcats and Eagles meet for the South title Tuesday night. Davidson holds the automatic bid for the week thanks to their RPI.

Southland
Northwestern State leads Sam Houston State and McNeese State by three games.

Southwestern
Southern leads Grambling by two games. The two won't meet again unless it's in the SWAC tournament.

Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by two games.

West Coast
Gonzaga all but wrapped up the regular season with their win at Loyola Marymount yesterday,

Enjoy the week!
CD

Bracket Projection for Sunday, 12 February

2006-02-12T11:19:00.000-05:00

The countdown can now begin. We're officially a month away from Selection Sunday. There are lots of changes this week. The BracketBusters next week are really looming large for the usual one-bid leagues, who actually make their presence known in this week's bracket.

Short Summary
There were some changes in my top four lines this week, but nothing earth-shattering. NC State and Iowa switched places. Ohio State fell to a 5 from a 4 and LSU replaced them. The real changes happened at the bottom of the at-large pool and in the 7-10 range. The Missouri Valley now has five teams in, with Missouri State's win at Northern Iowa being the impetus for their inclusion as a 12-seed. Additionally, UNCW makes the Colonial a two-bid league once again. Colorado, Iowa State, and Stanford's struggles allowed more "mid-major" bids this week.

These changes rippled up the bracket as well, with Nevada, Wichita State, and Bucknell getting to the 8 line. George Mason, Creighton, and San Diego State rose to the 9 line.

Syracuse needs to win to stay in the bracket at this point. A loss to St. John's today could knock them out of next week's projection. Cincinnati has a chance to get themselves off the bubble with a win at Pitt. Illinois-Ohio State and West Virginia-Georgetown both have important seeding implications this afternoon.

Last Four In
Syracuse
UAB
Missouri State
UNC Wilmington

First Four Out
Arkansas
Cincinnati
Colorado
Stanford

Next Four Out
Air Force
Florida State
Iowa State
Vanderbilt

League Breakdown
8 Big East
7 Big Ten
6 ACC
5 Missouri Valley
5 SEC
4 Pac-10
3 Big XII
2 Colonial
2 Conference USA
2 Western Athletic

Things don't look so rosy for the A-10 and Mountain West who find themselves as new entrants on the Banana Peel list.

America East
Albany now has a game and a half lead on Binghamton. The two won't meet again unless they meet in the conference tournament final.

Atlantic Sun
Belmont has the auto-bid for the wacky A-Sun this week since they have a better RPI than Lipscomb, who is tied with the Bruins in the standings. East Tennessee is a half-game back. The Bucs close the season at Lipscomb and Belmont before hosting the conference tournament. Stay tuned. You haven't heard the last of Matt Doherty's Florida Atlantic or Gardner-Webb either.

Atlantic 10
George Washington has a three game lead on Charlotte. The 49ers were getting serious at-large consideration this week. That was until they lost at the last place team in the ACC, Wake Forest. Xavier, Temple, and LaSalle also have cases, but they also have a lot to do.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona has only one league loss and a two and a half game lead on Montana.

Big South
Winthrop and Birmingham-Southern are tied at the top of the league. Winthrop has the auto bid for the week thanks to a far superior RPI number. A win at Marquette will do that for a team.

Big West
Meet the new boss...same as the old boss. Cal-Irvine lost a thriller at home to Cal Poly last night, paving the way for Pacific to reclaim the top spot. Not a vintage year for the Tigers, who find themselves as a 15 seed this week.

Colonial
George Mason leads UNCW by a game and Hofstra by a game and a half. Patriots play Drexel at mid-week, then travel to Wichita for their BracketBuster. Then they play chasers Hofstra five days later.

Horizon
Milwaukee is back in charge with a two game lead over Butler. The Panthers BracketBuster with Missouri State became all the more interesting with the Bears win at the UNI Dome.

Ivy Group
Penn leads still way below .500 Princeton by a game and Yale and Cornell by two. Quakers and Tigers have two games in hand though.

Metro Atlantic
Iona continues to lead Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.

Mid-American
Akron leapfrogged Kent State this week. Zips remain a game behind in the race. Miami and Ohio still have fading chances.

Mid-Eastern
Delaware State now leads Hampton and Coppin State by two and a half games.

Mid-Continent
IUPUI beat preseason favorite Oral Roberts by five yesterday. Jaguars now have a two game lead on the Golden Eagles.

Mountain West
San Diego State beat Air Force Wednesday, then lost to Utah on Saturday. Aztecs now have a game and a half lead on UNLV and a two game advantage on Air Force and BYU. UNLV lost at the Marriot Center on Saturday. Inopportune losses moved Air Force out of the bracket.

Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson now has a two and a half game lead on Monmouth.

Ohio Valley
Murray State leads Samford by two and a half games.

Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. The two meet a week from Wednesday in Lewisberg.

Southern
This is a league where everyone is beating up on everyone else. Georgia Southern now moves into the top spot and the play-in game. (The word "Southern" gets a lot of use in this week's play-in game.) Elon is tied with the Eagles, but the Phoenix's overall record and RPI keep them out this week.

Southland
Northwestern State leads Sam Houston State, Lamar, and McNeese State by two and a half games.

Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by two and a half games.

West Coast
Gonzaga leads Loyola Marymount by a game and a half.

Enjoy the week!
CD

Bracket Projection for Super Bowl Sunday

2006-02-05T12:21:00.000-05:00

This week's bracket further reinforces my notion that the science of bracketology is a lot like those Sudoku puzzles that suddenly became popular while I wasn't paying any attention. The Big East and Big Ten are proving to be very hard to fit into a proper bracket while fulfilling as many of the NCAA's bracket integrity rules as possible. The other major problem I'm discovering at the moment is that there are a lot of potential first and second round matchups I have to bracket around, so as to avoid regular season rematches.

Here's the link to the bracket.

Short Summary
There was a change on the top line late last night. Sorry Illinois, if you can't beat Penn State at home, you must temporarily forfeit your one seed. My friend Sam asked me if UF would move up with the home win over Kentucky. In a word, "No." Texas now takes the fourth one seed. Tennessee and Iowa jumped onto the the third line, while Ohio State dropped to the fourth. George Washington is a new fourth seed as well. I was impressed with their win at Xavier Thursday night. It was the second time I'd been able to watch them after a road win at Charlotte.

Kansas is back in. The seven seed line now looks like it could be a final four on its own. KU, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maryland.

Last Four In
Air Force
Cincinnati
Utah State
Wichita State

First Four Out
Alabama
Iowa State
Miami (Florida)
Nebraska

Next Four Out
Arkansas
Stanford
Temple
Virginia

Other Teams Who Fell Out This Week
Vanderbilt (Commodores are looking less and less tournament worthy. They're lucky to have most of the SEC contenders visiting Memorial Gym in the second half of the season.)

League Breakdown
9 Big East
7 Big Ten
5 ACC
4 Big 12
4 Missouri Valley
4 Pac-10
4 SEC
2 Atlantic 10
2 Conference USA
2 Mountain West
2 Western Athletic

As always, the traditional one-bid leagues jockeying for league tournament position (except for the Ancient Eight)...which brings me to this week's Banana Peel list.

America East
Albany now has a full two game lead on the Binghamton Bearcats. However, the campus formerly known as Harpur College has two games in hand. They'll try to pick up some ground today as they entertain Maine.

Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb has the auto-bid for this week, but they have no shortage of pursuers. East Tennessee State, Belmont, and Florida Atlantic are all a half-game back.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona remains unbeaten and owns a two and a half game lead on both Montana and Montana State.

Big South
Winthrop dropped a 14-point decision to Coastal Carolina Saturday. That moved the Eagles a game behind Birmingham-Southern.

Big West
UC-Irvine still leads Pacific by two games; however, the Tigers have two games in hand.

Colonial
George Mason beat UNC Wilmington Saturday night to remain in first. The Seahawks remain a game back. Hofstra is a game and a half back. The Flying Pride of Dutchmen (too many nicknames) also have a game in hand. VCU, ODU, and Northeastern are all two games back.

Horizon
Last week I said,
"Milwaukee is running away and hiding."

Not so much anymore, with back-to-back losses to Wright State and Butler. The Bulldogs are now just a game back with two in hand.

Ivy Group
Penn remains unbeaten and is leading 5-12 Princeton, Harvard, and Cornell by a game. Penn and Princeton have played four league games. The Crimson and Big Red have played six.

Metro Atlantic
Iona still leads Manhattan by a game. This one will go right down to the league tournament.

Mid-American
Kent State jumped ahead of Akron this week. Zips remain a game behind in the race, while Miami is a game and a half back.

Mid-Eastern
Delaware State finally lost last night to a below-average South Carolina State team. Florida A&M, Coppin State, and Hampton are all two games back.

Mid-Continent
Preseason favorite Oral Roberts has almost caught IUPUI. Jags lead by a half-game and have a game in hand on the Golden Eagles.

Northeast
Another week, another leader in the NEC. This week 2005 champ Fairleigh Dickinson is on top. Central Connecticut State and Monmouth are a game back. Robert Morris and Mount Saint Mary's are two behind.

Ohio Valley
Murray State beat Samford pretty easily during the week to move to the top of the league. Bulldogs are still only a game back.

Patriot
Bucknell leads Lehigh by a game and a half. Engineering Mountain Hawks (another school with too many nicknames, be glad Auburn's not involved here) have a game in hand.

Southern
Elon still is on top, thanks to Davidson's loss to Western Carolina Saturday. Georgia Southern, College of Charleston, and Davidson are all a game behind the Phoenix. Western Carolina and Wofford are two back.

Southland
Northwestern State leads McNeese State by a game and a half and Sam Houston State by two. McNeese has a game in hand.

Sun Belt
Western Kentucky leads South Alabama by a game.

West Coast
Gonzaga leads resurgent Loyola Marymount by two games.

Western Athletic
Two bids this week for the WAC. Utah State beat Louisiana Tech, knocking the Bulldogs out of the bracket. Utah State got one of the last at-large places, while Nevada picked up the auto-bid when they beat New Mexico State and moved into first place.

As always, thoughts and feedback are welcome.
CD

BracketBuster matchups

2006-01-30T18:33:00.000-05:00

ESPN released the matchups for this year's edition of BracketBuster Saturday earlier today. The sad thing is this year's edition conflicts with the Olympics, one of my other obsessions. Here's what I think of each one. I'll rate them on a one to five star scale based on their potential impact on Selection Sunday.

Bucknell at Northern Iowa (4 stars) The winner of this game has a chance at increasing its seed number. This is more important for the Bison at this point as the Missouri Valley is a far, far stronger league than the Patriot League. Bucknell is slipping into the double-digit seed range because of their schedule, but make no mistake they have a good chance of taking out their hosts.

George Mason at Wichita State (5 stars) This gets five-stars since both teams are legit bubble teams. (You can argue that Bucknell and UNI are just about locks at this point.) The Shockers need a name win badly at this point. They've failed in their attempts against the rest of the lead pack in the Valley. Mason could further separate themselves from the rest of the Colonial crowd with a win against Wilmington Saturday.

Missouri State at Milwaukee (3 stars) Bears aren't as hot as they once were, winning at the MECCA would be a definite feather in their cap. A win over Missouri State may not help Milwaukee out much in terms of seeding. Panthers face a problem similar to Bucknell's: their league's overall lack of strength is going to cause their seed number to drop as major conference teams pick up more quality wins.

Louisiana Tech at Southern Illinois (5 stars) Wow, did the Valley teams luck out in terms of getting home games. I'm looking forward to this one, since I've yet to see La Tech play this season. I want to see how they measure up against a true mid-major standard bearer. It's also the first of a two game mini WAC-Valley challenge. This game could help the seeding of both teams, particularly La Tech. This would be close to a name non-conference win for them.

Buffalo at Iona (2 stars) I'm curious to see two New York state-based schools play each other, but the Bulls have tiny at-large hopes (and so do the Gaels, despite their decent RPI).

Fresno State at Creighton (1 star) The second WAC-Valley mini-challenge game. Bulldogs are ineligible for the postseason. Jays look safe for a bid. Meh.

Akron at Nevada (5 stars) I haven't seen the Zips play this year. Wolf Pack need another quality win to stay in the at-large conversation.

Butler at Kent State (1 star) Bulldogs aren't an at-large possibility, while the Golden Flashes are in the thick of the MAC race. This game won't affect the at-large pool much.

Marist at Old Dominion (1 star) Once upon a time, in the monarchy of Norfolk, the ODU basketball team had at-large hopes. A couple of inopportune CAA losses later, those are gone. Beating the Red Foxes won't change that.

Northwestern State at Utah State (5 stars) This should be exciting. I've seen both of these teams play a couple of times this year on the tube and they're fun to watch. The Aggies have better at-large hopes than the Demons, but they're both playing for higher seeding if they manage to win their leagues.

Samford at Ohio (4 stars) Ohio lost too many close "name" games to keep themselves in the at-large pool; however both the Bobcats and Bulldogs will cause fits in Round One of the NCAAs if they win their leagues. These are two very good teams.

Albany at VCU (2 stars) An interesting game between two teams with no at-large hopes. The good news for both the Great Danes and Rams is that they both have serious auto bid hopes.

Northern Arizona at Western Kentucky (4 stars) How is this game at the bottom of the list? The surprising Big Sky leaders travel to Diddle Arena to face the Hilltoppers. Again, two teams with little in the way of at-large hopes, but who have great auto bid hopes and are jockeying for seeding.

I'll save and recap these on February 18.

Bracket Projection for Sunday, 29 January

2006-01-29T16:17:00.000-05:00

We're clearly in flux here at the end of January (as Raycom/JP's coverage of the end of NC State-Clemson blares in my ears). Remember last week, when I said, "We've hit the point of the season again where teams are playing as if they don't want to make the Big Dance." Their collective alarm clocks must have rung loudly on Monday morning. There was a lot of competitive basketball this week. Kentucky is back in, so is Oklahoma. Kansas and Louisville are not; however, I must say that the Jayhawks are very close at this point. It was a good week for Big East bubble boys Seton Hall and Georgetown. It was also good for St. John's and Rutgers, but not good enough for them to crack my field of 65. Louisville is barely in the Big East tournament right now, so they have a lot to do to get in. The ACC is down to five teams this week, Clemson is back out, along with Miami and Wake Forest.

Here's the link to the bracket. Here's last week's for reference (still getting the hang of this Blogger setup, so I lost last week's post trying to write this one).

Short Summary
Duke is still number one overall. UConn is now the second number one seed, Memphis is three, and Illinois moves up to the top tier. Florida drops to a two, joined by newcomer Texas (a one in most other brackets, but I dropped them because of the loss to OU last night), and two holdovers, Pitt and Villanova. West Virginia moves up to a three seed, while Tennessee moves to a four, swapping places again with NC State. The Wolfpack were comprehensively outplayed by Seton Hall at home mid-week.

Last Four In
Cincinnati
Temple
Wichita State
Seton Hall

First Four Out
Clemson
Iowa State
Kansas
Nevada

Next Four Out
Arkansas
Miami (Florida)
St. John's
Wake Forest

Other Teams Who Fell Out This Week
Alabama (They still have a good chance.)
Old Dominion (Colonial is now pretty much a one-bid league.)

League Breakdown
9 Big East
7 Big Ten
5 ACC
5 SEC
4 Missouri Valley
4 Pac-10
3 Big 12
3 Atlantic 10
2 Conference USA
2 Mountain West

Everyone else is on their own...which brings me to this week's Banana Peel list.

America East
Albany is first after winning at Binghamton yesterday. The Bearcats are a half-game back still. Boston University is a gama and a half out.

Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb now leads the Burrowing Owls of Florida Atlantic by half a game. (Now that there are two sets of Owls in the A-Sun (Kennessaw State are the others), we need to figure out a way to distinguish between them. The two sides are meeting right now (Sunday afternoon) at Lipscomb.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona is currently unbeaten, but preseason favorite Montana is a game back. The two meet the day after V-Day in Missoula.

Big South
Winthrop and Birmingham-Southern are tied. The Eagles get the auto bid this week based on their RPI.

Big West
Surprising UC-Irvine still leads Pacific and all other challengers by at least two games.

Colonial
George Mason and UNC-Wilmington are tied for the lead (Patriots overall record and RPI get them in this week). They play Saturday at the Patriot Center. VCU and Old Dominion are a game back, with Hofstra a game and a half behind.

Horizon
Milwaukee is running away and hiding. Butler is three games back.

Ivy Group
The Ancient Eight is still a logjam thanks to the slow moving Ivy League schedule. Penn is now the lone unbeaten, but Harvard and Yale are just a game back in the loss column.

Metro Atlantic
Iona now leads Manhattan by a game.

Mid-American
Akron has the automatic bid this week, but is tied with Kent State atop the East. The Zips have a better overall record. Ohio is a game back. West Division leader Northern Illinois would be last in the East.

Mid-Eastern
Unbeaten Delaware State leads Coppin State by two games.

Northeast
Central Connecticut State has jumped to the front of Fairleigh Dickinson, Robert Morris, and Monmouth, who are all a game back.

Ohio Valley
Samford and Murray State are tied atop the league. The Bulldogs get the automatic bid this week thanks to a higher RPI. The two teams meet on the Racers home floor Monday night.

Patriot
Bucknell leads, but Lehigh is a game back.

Southern
Davidson and Furman trail Elon by a half-game.

Southland
Northwestern State is back on top this week, with Lamar and Sam Houston State a game back.

Sun Belt
Western Kentucky is now back on top of the league. South Alabama is a game and a half back.

West Coast
Gonzaga is a game and a half ahead of San Francisco.

Western Athletic
Louisiana Tech leads newcomer Utah State by a game and a half. Aggies host fourth-place Hawai'i (road Warriors they are not) Monday night. LA Tech hosts third-place bubble team Nevada Thursday.

Bubble Teams
Virginia
Charlotte
Rhode Island
Notre Dame
Kansas State
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
BYU
Colorado State
UNLV
USC
Mississippi
Utah State

Right now, I'm watching the end of NC State-Clemson. Wolfpack have a 6-point lead in double OT. I'm waiting on the bubble battle between FSU and Miami, then Syracuse hosts Seton Hall. Tonight, I'll be paying attention to Washington at Stanford in particular.

As always, thoughts and feedback are welcome.
CD

Midweek thoughts

2006-01-25T18:16:00.000-05:00

It's Wednesday, and since I have a few minutes, I'd like to share some of my thoughts on what I've seen this week.

Syracuse looks terrible. It seems that teams finally have figured out the zone after all these years. The fact that McNamara isn't shooting well isn't helping matters. I do have to agree with Coach Boeheim on the schedule though, UConn, at Nova, and at Pitt is an extremely difficult stretch with not a lot of prep time.

A lot of the other brackets I've seen have Florida to a two seed. I think this may be a little too hasty. Going into Saturday night, I figured one of two things would happen. 1) UF would lose outright (which was correct) or 2) they'd win, go up to #1 and then lose tonight to South Carolina. Face it folks, now that Tennessee has a real coach, they're good. The real test is how they follow up the loss...do they flip the switch back on and get back on a roll or do they start to play inconsistently.

Miami may not be the last team in this week. Losing badly at UVa hurts their case slightly...if the Hoos two big wins hadn't been at home, I'd probably give them more consideration. (Off topic, I wonder how moving into a bigger arena will affect that program. Sure, they'll get more fans into the gym, but the atmosphere at University Hall can be intimidating.)

Manhattan lost at last-place Rider, while Iona beat Siena. Gaels now have a full game lead in the MAAC.

Miami University has lost two straight in the MAC, including last night at home to the league's new leader, Kent State. Golden Flashes are unbeaten in the conference, and look who's right behind them in the East...Ohio.

Southern Illinois beat Creighton in Carbondale. It looks like four schools in the Valley are now separating themselves from the pack, SIU, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, and Creighton. Early season darlings Missouri State, Bradley, and (most certainly) Indiana State have had some rough sledding in the league.

Tonight, I'll naturally be watching the UF-South Carolina game, while also keeping an eye on St. John's and UConn. Cincy plays at Louisville as well...good chance for the Cardinals to beat a good team. There are a couple of very intriguing bubble matchups in the Big XII...Iowa State at Missouri and Kansas at Texas A&M. BC is also at North Carolina tonight. It's a huge test for the Eagles, and they may have a difficult time after last night's tragic bus/bike accident.

Next projection on Saturday or Sunday...I may post in the meantime.

2006-01-14T11:46:00.000-05:00

Hello fellow college basketball fans!

I've been playing around making with mock brackets for quite a long time now. I felt it was finally time to put my offerings on the web, if only to see how they compared to the real experts out there. I get to watch a lot of games thanks to Full Court and Fox College Sports, so I've seen far more teams play than the usual fan. (Being single and having no life helps with that as well.) Now that we have quite a few games under our belt, I've come up with my first bracket for the season (and first ever on the web).

Bracket projection for Saturday, 14 January 2006.

Here's the breakdown of a few key things I used in my projection.

Last Four In
LSU
UAB
Michigan
UNC-Wilmington

First Four Out
Boston College
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Colorado State

Next Four Out
There are a ton of mediocre teams who could fit in this class right now.

Conference-by-Conference
Big East (8)
Big Ten (7)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Pac-10 (4)
Missouri Valley (4)
Big 12 (3)
Mountain West, WAC, C-USA (2 each)

Dobber-Dribbles

There may be two more at-large bids out there based on this bracket. When determining each conferences automatic qualifier, I take the team with the best league record at the time of my projection, not the team with the best RPI. Therefore, Louisiana Tech gets the current auto bid from the WAC and UNLV gets the one from the Mountain West. In due time, Nevada and Air Force may be able to take the top spot in their respective leagues, but there's a lot of basketball to be played.
Similarly, my rule for determining automatic qualifiers gives us a couple of surprises out of the mid-major conferences. Cal State-Sacramento has the auto bid from the Big Sky (not Montana), Samford has the one for the Ohio Valley (as opposed to Murray State), Cal-Irvine has the Big West's (instead of Pacific), and Harvard has the Ivy's (not Penn). Again these will change and are frankly useless projections, as the conference tournaments could render many of these auto-bid projections useless. Well, except for the case of the Ancient Eight, where there is no conference tournament and the chances of one bad night killing a league leader is greatly diminished.

What I'll be watching today
Lots...especially since my three favorite teams play a back-to-back tonight. (This is what you call a good transition, folks...we get right to my biases).
Milwaukee at UW-Green Bay at 4
Auburn at Florida at 6
Syracuse at Cincinnati at 8

I have broadcasting and poli sci bachelor's from Florida and a master's in poli sci from Milwaukee (aka UW-Milwaukee). I grew up wanting to go to Syracuse, but a lackluster scholarship offer killed that. Also, I may be the only SEC alum who actively likes the Pac-10.

Comments are more than welcome. I'll post intermittently this week as I'm traveling to the Miami area to help train some trainers Monday and Tuesday. I will have another projection next Saturday at about this time.