Sunday, January 27, 2008
Almost a Fire Sale...
Changes All Around
Bracket Number Three pretty much gave me a headache this afternoon. This week, we have some new one seeds, some shuffling in lines two through four, a certifiable mess in the at-large pool, and very little change at the bottom of the s-curve. Taking it from the top, Memphis and Kansas are exactly where you'd expect the last two unbeatens in the country to be, as the first and second one seeds. However, UNC and UCLA have slipped down to the 2 line. Duke moves up to the top line in the East region since they're unbeaten in the ACC and looking impressive. Tennessee is the new one seed in the West, despite the loss to Kentucky at midweek. It's very hard to deny the top RPI team a one seed, especially considering their schedule. UNC is the number 2 seed out West now, while the Bruins have the second spot in the East. Why is this not reversed? Well, the top two teams from a conference should never be in the same region, so these two teams go out of their natural regions for this projection. Georgetown remains on the 2 line, but Indiana (again, despite a loss to UConn) replaces Michigan State, who slips down to the 3 line. Xavier, Wisconsin, and Washington State remain as 3 seeds this week. Pittsburgh, Texas, and Butler remain on the 4 line, while Louisville, new to the bracket last week, moves up to join them. Dayton, who crushed Pitt earlier in the season, drops down to the 5 line after 3 straight Atlantic 10 losses. I was tempted to drop the Panthers after their loss to Rutgers, but outside of Louisville, no one on line 5 or 6 is screaming "Protected Seed" at the moment. Arizona and Stanford need another Pac-10 win or 2. Baylor could get there with another Big 12 road win. I'm not convinced that St. Mary's and Drake are quite as good as their computer numbers suggest. Marquette and Vandy have road issues.
Bracket Bingo
Seriously, the committee may have to raffle off the last four or five at-large spots at the end of the season. Teams certainly don't seem to want to earn them on the court right now. After another week of general inconsistency, the Big East is the big winner in this projection. 10 Big East clubs are in this week. Do I think this will last? No. If Maryland had beaten Duke, this evening, the Terps would've been in at the expense of Syracuse. The Orange are in because they beat Providence in a bubble battle today at the Dome, BC lost two ACC games this week, and Maryland is just a hair short of being in. Miami was also considered for this spot, but the Hurricanes form outside of today's home win against Clemson has left much to be desired. UConn and Seton Hall are the two Big East newcomers this week. The Huskies win at Indiana without suspended Jerome Dyson and Doug Wiggins was impressive, and it followed a road win at Cincy and a big home win against Marquette. These are three results that should worry the rest of the league. The Pirates, meanwhile, have reeled off 4 straight conference wins, including ones over Louisville and fellow bubble boys Providence.
Oregon falls out this week, as being swept on consecutive weekends is never a good thing in the Pac-1o. Illinois State also drops out of the bracket. After two conference losses, the holes in the profile are starting to become more evident. Kansas State and Purdue are making moves in their leagues, which put them in this week. Arkansas is also in. The Hogs' SEC opponents haven't really helped them, but their win over Baylor in Dallas looks better and better.
Finally, Cleveland State no longer has the auto-bid from the Horizon after two straight conference losses, so the Vikings are out. However, Mississippi State is unbeaten in the SEC, so the Bulldogs take CSU's place in the bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 10
Big 12 - 6
Pacific 10 - 6
SEC - 6
ACC - 4
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Arkansas
Connecticut
Kansas State
Lamar (auto)
Marist (auto)
Mississippi State (auto)
Nevada-Las Vegas (auto)
Purdue
Seton Hall
Wagner (auto)
Out of the Bracket
Boston College
Cleveland State (auto)
Illinois State
Miami
Oregon
Providence
Quinnipiac (auto)
San Diego State (auto)
Siena (auto)
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Last Four In
Arizona State
Arkansas
Villanova
Syracuse
Last Four Out
Boston College
Maryland
Oregon
Providence
Next Four Out
Brigham Young
Illinois State
Miami
Saint Joseph's
Also Considered
California
Charlotte
Duquesne
Florida State
George Mason
Missouri
NC State
Ohio
Texas Tech
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
Bracket Number Three pretty much gave me a headache this afternoon. This week, we have some new one seeds, some shuffling in lines two through four, a certifiable mess in the at-large pool, and very little change at the bottom of the s-curve. Taking it from the top, Memphis and Kansas are exactly where you'd expect the last two unbeatens in the country to be, as the first and second one seeds. However, UNC and UCLA have slipped down to the 2 line. Duke moves up to the top line in the East region since they're unbeaten in the ACC and looking impressive. Tennessee is the new one seed in the West, despite the loss to Kentucky at midweek. It's very hard to deny the top RPI team a one seed, especially considering their schedule. UNC is the number 2 seed out West now, while the Bruins have the second spot in the East. Why is this not reversed? Well, the top two teams from a conference should never be in the same region, so these two teams go out of their natural regions for this projection. Georgetown remains on the 2 line, but Indiana (again, despite a loss to UConn) replaces Michigan State, who slips down to the 3 line. Xavier, Wisconsin, and Washington State remain as 3 seeds this week. Pittsburgh, Texas, and Butler remain on the 4 line, while Louisville, new to the bracket last week, moves up to join them. Dayton, who crushed Pitt earlier in the season, drops down to the 5 line after 3 straight Atlantic 10 losses. I was tempted to drop the Panthers after their loss to Rutgers, but outside of Louisville, no one on line 5 or 6 is screaming "Protected Seed" at the moment. Arizona and Stanford need another Pac-10 win or 2. Baylor could get there with another Big 12 road win. I'm not convinced that St. Mary's and Drake are quite as good as their computer numbers suggest. Marquette and Vandy have road issues.
Bracket Bingo
Seriously, the committee may have to raffle off the last four or five at-large spots at the end of the season. Teams certainly don't seem to want to earn them on the court right now. After another week of general inconsistency, the Big East is the big winner in this projection. 10 Big East clubs are in this week. Do I think this will last? No. If Maryland had beaten Duke, this evening, the Terps would've been in at the expense of Syracuse. The Orange are in because they beat Providence in a bubble battle today at the Dome, BC lost two ACC games this week, and Maryland is just a hair short of being in. Miami was also considered for this spot, but the Hurricanes form outside of today's home win against Clemson has left much to be desired. UConn and Seton Hall are the two Big East newcomers this week. The Huskies win at Indiana without suspended Jerome Dyson and Doug Wiggins was impressive, and it followed a road win at Cincy and a big home win against Marquette. These are three results that should worry the rest of the league. The Pirates, meanwhile, have reeled off 4 straight conference wins, including ones over Louisville and fellow bubble boys Providence.
Oregon falls out this week, as being swept on consecutive weekends is never a good thing in the Pac-1o. Illinois State also drops out of the bracket. After two conference losses, the holes in the profile are starting to become more evident. Kansas State and Purdue are making moves in their leagues, which put them in this week. Arkansas is also in. The Hogs' SEC opponents haven't really helped them, but their win over Baylor in Dallas looks better and better.
Finally, Cleveland State no longer has the auto-bid from the Horizon after two straight conference losses, so the Vikings are out. However, Mississippi State is unbeaten in the SEC, so the Bulldogs take CSU's place in the bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 10
Big 12 - 6
Pacific 10 - 6
SEC - 6
ACC - 4
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Arkansas
Connecticut
Kansas State
Lamar (auto)
Marist (auto)
Mississippi State (auto)
Nevada-Las Vegas (auto)
Purdue
Seton Hall
Wagner (auto)
Out of the Bracket
Boston College
Cleveland State (auto)
Illinois State
Miami
Oregon
Providence
Quinnipiac (auto)
San Diego State (auto)
Siena (auto)
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Last Four In
Arizona State
Arkansas
Villanova
Syracuse
Last Four Out
Boston College
Maryland
Oregon
Providence
Next Four Out
Brigham Young
Illinois State
Miami
Saint Joseph's
Also Considered
California
Charlotte
Duquesne
Florida State
George Mason
Missouri
NC State
Ohio
Texas Tech
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Results of an Interesting Week
Here is Bracket Number Two.
Little Change at the Top
Despite the interesting results of the past week, very little has changed. However, there is now some hope for those teams on line 2 that hope to break the Memphis, Kansas, UNC, UCLA monopoly on the top line. (Notice the change in the order.) The teams on the second line that stand to benefit the most are Duke and Tennessee. As the loss to Maryland and close call at Georgia Tech proved, the Heels are beatable. The Blue Devils have two chances to do this on the schedule. Tennessee still has to go to Memphis. With apologies to an inconsistent Gonzaga team, the Vols have the best chance to end the Tigers hopes of a perfect season. The 2 line can also take solace in USC's win over UCLA at Pauley on Saturday. Chinks are emerging in the armor of the top four. It's far too early in the season to think that this line will remain intact for the next eight weeks.
Line 2 remains the same as last week, with the Vols and Blue Devils joined by Georgetown and Michigan State. Washington State, Xavier, and Indiana remain on line 3. Wisconsin replaces an inconsistent Texas, however. The Longhorns are now a 4 seed, along with Dayton and newcomers Butler and Pitt, jumping up from last week's five line. Texas A&M's two blowout losses this week and Marquette's no-show at UConn today send them down to the 5 line.
Flux in the Middle
Lines 5 through 12 this week really illustrate some of the inconsistency teams showcased over the past 7 days. For starters, four at-larges fell out after lackluster weeks, while another is perilously close to falling out based on some early road struggles in the conference. Florida State is gone after three straight conference losses. So is Arkansas, since the Hogs dropped consecutive games to the two worst teams in the SEC East. A home loss to newcomer Providence did UConn in (even with a win over Marquette earlier today). The nonconference schedule and two conference losses in a row put the Huskies out, but they could easily be back next week after games with Cincinnati and Indiana. St. Joseph's fell out thanks to a loss to Charlotte. UMass replaces the Hawks after beating Dayton at UD Arena and the aforementioned 49ers yesterday. USC gets in thanks to the big road win at UCLA, which showed that they weren't that far off in the non-conference. Louisville also joins the bracket this week, all the way up on the 7 line. The Cardinals are healthy and becoming dangerous...just ask Marquette. The loss to Seton Hall Saturday is the only thing that really kept them from moving up.
Syracuse needs to watch it. I fear I'll see a bad loss at the Verizon Center tomorrow night. Things won't get any easier for the Orange though, as another bubble team, Providence, visits the Dome Sunday. SU will need to avoid the foul trouble that cost them against Villanova yesterday to get even a split out of this week.
Several teams showed this week that they may be ready to make big moves in the coming weeks. Stanford got a big home sweep of the Arizona schools to get onto the 6 line. They have a very important game with archrivals Cal on Saturday, where the Bears post players should give the Lopez brothers a huge challenge. Arizona State looks more like they're for real after getting a split in the Bay Area. They should move up further if they can do well this weekend (beat UW and play WSU close). The Cougar-Sun Devil game Saturday could be a slugfest. Baylor is currently unbeaten in the Big 12, but the Bears have so far faced some of the conferences lesser lights. Dates at A&M and hosting Oklahoma this week will tell us more about this team.
Meanwhile, if it's January, it must be time for certain ACC teams to start their mid-season swoon. Clemson is 3-3 since the beginning of the year and Miami 2-2 in that same timespan. Both are now on the 9 line. These are two teams in the mix for 3rd place behind UNC and Duke, but they haven't quite proved they can play with the big boys.
My internet connection is currently acting up, so I'm going to cut this post short. To close, here is the key information for this week's bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 9
Pacific 10 - 7
ACC - 5
Big 12 - 5
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
SEC - 4
Horizon - 2
Missouri Valley -2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Alabama State (auto)
Cornell (auto)
Davidson (auto)
Louisville
Maryland-Baltimore County (auto)
Massachusetts
Northern Arizona (auto)
Providence
Quinnipiac (auto)
Siena (auto)
Southern California
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth (auto)
Out of the Bracket
Arkansas
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (auto)
Chattanooga (auto)
Connecticut
Dartmouth (auto)
Delaware (auto)
Florida State
Idaho State (auto)
Niagara(auto)
Northwestern State (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Wagner (auto)
Last Four In
Illinois State
Oklahoma
Providence
Syracuse
Last Four Out
Connecticut
George Mason
Kansas State
Purdue
Next Four Out
Arkansas
Creighton
Florida State
NC State
Also Considered
Brigham Young
Mississippi State
UNLV
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
Little Change at the Top
Despite the interesting results of the past week, very little has changed. However, there is now some hope for those teams on line 2 that hope to break the Memphis, Kansas, UNC, UCLA monopoly on the top line. (Notice the change in the order.) The teams on the second line that stand to benefit the most are Duke and Tennessee. As the loss to Maryland and close call at Georgia Tech proved, the Heels are beatable. The Blue Devils have two chances to do this on the schedule. Tennessee still has to go to Memphis. With apologies to an inconsistent Gonzaga team, the Vols have the best chance to end the Tigers hopes of a perfect season. The 2 line can also take solace in USC's win over UCLA at Pauley on Saturday. Chinks are emerging in the armor of the top four. It's far too early in the season to think that this line will remain intact for the next eight weeks.
Line 2 remains the same as last week, with the Vols and Blue Devils joined by Georgetown and Michigan State. Washington State, Xavier, and Indiana remain on line 3. Wisconsin replaces an inconsistent Texas, however. The Longhorns are now a 4 seed, along with Dayton and newcomers Butler and Pitt, jumping up from last week's five line. Texas A&M's two blowout losses this week and Marquette's no-show at UConn today send them down to the 5 line.
Flux in the Middle
Lines 5 through 12 this week really illustrate some of the inconsistency teams showcased over the past 7 days. For starters, four at-larges fell out after lackluster weeks, while another is perilously close to falling out based on some early road struggles in the conference. Florida State is gone after three straight conference losses. So is Arkansas, since the Hogs dropped consecutive games to the two worst teams in the SEC East. A home loss to newcomer Providence did UConn in (even with a win over Marquette earlier today). The nonconference schedule and two conference losses in a row put the Huskies out, but they could easily be back next week after games with Cincinnati and Indiana. St. Joseph's fell out thanks to a loss to Charlotte. UMass replaces the Hawks after beating Dayton at UD Arena and the aforementioned 49ers yesterday. USC gets in thanks to the big road win at UCLA, which showed that they weren't that far off in the non-conference. Louisville also joins the bracket this week, all the way up on the 7 line. The Cardinals are healthy and becoming dangerous...just ask Marquette. The loss to Seton Hall Saturday is the only thing that really kept them from moving up.
Syracuse needs to watch it. I fear I'll see a bad loss at the Verizon Center tomorrow night. Things won't get any easier for the Orange though, as another bubble team, Providence, visits the Dome Sunday. SU will need to avoid the foul trouble that cost them against Villanova yesterday to get even a split out of this week.
Several teams showed this week that they may be ready to make big moves in the coming weeks. Stanford got a big home sweep of the Arizona schools to get onto the 6 line. They have a very important game with archrivals Cal on Saturday, where the Bears post players should give the Lopez brothers a huge challenge. Arizona State looks more like they're for real after getting a split in the Bay Area. They should move up further if they can do well this weekend (beat UW and play WSU close). The Cougar-Sun Devil game Saturday could be a slugfest. Baylor is currently unbeaten in the Big 12, but the Bears have so far faced some of the conferences lesser lights. Dates at A&M and hosting Oklahoma this week will tell us more about this team.
Meanwhile, if it's January, it must be time for certain ACC teams to start their mid-season swoon. Clemson is 3-3 since the beginning of the year and Miami 2-2 in that same timespan. Both are now on the 9 line. These are two teams in the mix for 3rd place behind UNC and Duke, but they haven't quite proved they can play with the big boys.
My internet connection is currently acting up, so I'm going to cut this post short. To close, here is the key information for this week's bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 9
Pacific 10 - 7
ACC - 5
Big 12 - 5
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
SEC - 4
Horizon - 2
Missouri Valley -2
West Coast - 2
New This Week
Alabama State (auto)
Cornell (auto)
Davidson (auto)
Louisville
Maryland-Baltimore County (auto)
Massachusetts
Northern Arizona (auto)
Providence
Quinnipiac (auto)
Siena (auto)
Southern California
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Virginia Commonwealth (auto)
Out of the Bracket
Arkansas
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (auto)
Chattanooga (auto)
Connecticut
Dartmouth (auto)
Delaware (auto)
Florida State
Idaho State (auto)
Niagara(auto)
Northwestern State (auto)
Saint Joseph's
Stephen F. Austin (auto)
Wagner (auto)
Last Four In
Illinois State
Oklahoma
Providence
Syracuse
Last Four Out
Connecticut
George Mason
Kansas State
Purdue
Next Four Out
Arkansas
Creighton
Florida State
NC State
Also Considered
Brigham Young
Mississippi State
UNLV
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Week of the Unexpected
You remember St. Louis...the team that set a shot-clock era record for futility by managing only 20 points in a loss to George Washington? What a difference a week makes, as number 21 Rhode Island fell victim to Rick Majerus's charges in a rather empty Kiel (or whatever it's called now) Center, 68-61.
This result is just an example of both of this week's key themes so far. 1) It's not going to be easy for the favorites in the Atlantic 10 and 2) you just don't know what's going to happen night in and night out anymore. This second theme is simply a continuation of something that happened every week during football season. Well, up until the National Championship game, that is.
To me, the biggest shock of the week wasn't St. Louis more than tripling their scoring output of the previous Thursday. No. My jaw nearly hit the floor when I saw this result pop up on ESPN's bottom line Wednesday night.
ARMY 53 HOLY CROSS 39
Um...did I see that correctly? Army, who typically is (but at pushing .500 this year isn't) to put it nicely (and please picture Scott Van Pelt impersonating Stephen A. Smith here) TERRIBLE!, won at the Hart Center.
Yes, you're eyes aren't deceiving you for once, Chris...
OK, I just wanted to be sure.
Anyway, the Crusaders are now 0-2 in the Patriot League. (They lost at Lafayette Saturday.) So they won't be popping up in the bracket on Sunday.
Cleveland State will be sticking around this week after beating Butler 56-52 last night. After the second win over a ranked opponent in their history, the Vikings now have a game and a half lead at the top of the Horizon League. Butler will have to settle for an at-large this week.
Two teams that will make it in this week: Louisville, after a 20-point win over Marquette, and Massachusetts. The Minutemen defeated Dayton on Wednesday night, and they'll likely replace the St. Joseph's Hawks who fell to Charlotte that night.
Weekend Preview
I'll be paying attention to two games in particular on Saturday out of selfish interests. Syracuse has a big home bubble tilt with Villanova. A visit from Rutgers ended the Orange's two-game conference losing streak. The Wildcats 12-3 record while impressive on the surface, includes 7 wins over teams ranked 150 or below in the RPI and a 1-2 mark in true road games.
Florida hosts Kentucky at night. Both teams suffered close losses to the SEC's Mississippi contingent earlier in the week. The Wildcats tournament hopes are slim at this point, and a road win in Gainesville would build on the momentum of last Saturday's Vanderbilt win. The Gators simply need to make their free throws and stop shooting so many threes. The result of the game in Oxford could have been a bit different had UF done either.
Sunday night Oregon goes to Pullman to play Washington State. The Ducks dropped one in Seattle Thursday night and, with a loss to the Cougars, would fall to .500 in the Pac-10 heading into a home weekend with the LA schools next week.
The LA schools meet at Pauley Saturday with USC staring straight at a 1-4 Pac-1o start. You can bet OJ Mayo and the boys are looking forward to a date in Corvallis with the helpless Beavers next Thursday.
Drake and Illinois State are both unbeaten in the Missouri Valley heading into their meeting in Des Moines tomorrow. One team will suffer their first league loss, but expect to see both of them in the bracket Sunday.
E-mail you comments and questions to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
This result is just an example of both of this week's key themes so far. 1) It's not going to be easy for the favorites in the Atlantic 10 and 2) you just don't know what's going to happen night in and night out anymore. This second theme is simply a continuation of something that happened every week during football season. Well, up until the National Championship game, that is.
To me, the biggest shock of the week wasn't St. Louis more than tripling their scoring output of the previous Thursday. No. My jaw nearly hit the floor when I saw this result pop up on ESPN's bottom line Wednesday night.
ARMY 53 HOLY CROSS 39
Um...did I see that correctly? Army, who typically is (but at pushing .500 this year isn't) to put it nicely (and please picture Scott Van Pelt impersonating Stephen A. Smith here) TERRIBLE!, won at the Hart Center.
Yes, you're eyes aren't deceiving you for once, Chris...
OK, I just wanted to be sure.
Anyway, the Crusaders are now 0-2 in the Patriot League. (They lost at Lafayette Saturday.) So they won't be popping up in the bracket on Sunday.
Cleveland State will be sticking around this week after beating Butler 56-52 last night. After the second win over a ranked opponent in their history, the Vikings now have a game and a half lead at the top of the Horizon League. Butler will have to settle for an at-large this week.
Two teams that will make it in this week: Louisville, after a 20-point win over Marquette, and Massachusetts. The Minutemen defeated Dayton on Wednesday night, and they'll likely replace the St. Joseph's Hawks who fell to Charlotte that night.
Weekend Preview
I'll be paying attention to two games in particular on Saturday out of selfish interests. Syracuse has a big home bubble tilt with Villanova. A visit from Rutgers ended the Orange's two-game conference losing streak. The Wildcats 12-3 record while impressive on the surface, includes 7 wins over teams ranked 150 or below in the RPI and a 1-2 mark in true road games.
Florida hosts Kentucky at night. Both teams suffered close losses to the SEC's Mississippi contingent earlier in the week. The Wildcats tournament hopes are slim at this point, and a road win in Gainesville would build on the momentum of last Saturday's Vanderbilt win. The Gators simply need to make their free throws and stop shooting so many threes. The result of the game in Oxford could have been a bit different had UF done either.
Sunday night Oregon goes to Pullman to play Washington State. The Ducks dropped one in Seattle Thursday night and, with a loss to the Cougars, would fall to .500 in the Pac-10 heading into a home weekend with the LA schools next week.
The LA schools meet at Pauley Saturday with USC staring straight at a 1-4 Pac-1o start. You can bet OJ Mayo and the boys are looking forward to a date in Corvallis with the helpless Beavers next Thursday.
Drake and Illinois State are both unbeaten in the Missouri Valley heading into their meeting in Des Moines tomorrow. One team will suffer their first league loss, but expect to see both of them in the bracket Sunday.
E-mail you comments and questions to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Year 3, Bracket 1
Selection Sunday is a mere nine weeks away, and since most teams have a few league games under their belts now (I'm talking to you, Big 12.), I figured it was time to deliver to you, my few and faithful readers, my first projected bracket of the season.
I have big plans for this season (and beyond) that I won't quite get into yet. Since I'm not in the process of job hunting and relocating this season, I'll be posting more and delivering more analysis as the season progresses. But without further delay...here is Bracket Number One.
The Top Quarter of the S-Curve
For as early in the season as it is, the top seed line was unbelievably easy to set up. The consensus is that North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas are the top four teams in the country at the moment, and I don't disagree. I've placed these four teams in this order in the bracket, setting up a potential UNC-Kansas and Memphis-UCLA Final Four. There's room for movement on the two and three lines. Georgetown. Michigan State, Duke, and Tennessee are the two seeds; four clubs who could all move up with slip ups by the top seeds. Indiana leads the three line (where things start to get really interesting), but two matchups with the Spartans could see those two teams switch places as the season progresses. Washington State was a candidate for a two seed going into their game at UCLA Saturday afternoon, but the loss at Pauley and weak non-conference slate makes them a three. Look out for Xavier, who beat the Hoosiers in a Thanksgiving event in the Chicago suburbs. Even though the Musketeers dropped a close one to Tennessee and got trounced by a under the radar Arizona State squad, they've been crushing teams of late and the Atlantic 10 schedule will be a boost to their computer numbers this year. Texas, a solid side who isn't missing Kevin Durant much, rounds out the three line. The four line includes a couple of teams who are quietly winning under the radar (Texas A&M and Wisconsin), a solid Marquette team who had an odd week at home (beating Seton Hall by 5, then steamrolling Notre Dame), and Dayton. I still can't believe St. Louis took the Flyers to overtime last night. Of course, the Billikens did revert to their woeful offensive ways in the extra period.
The Five Line
On the five line, Vanderbilt would be higher, if not for following up a struggle with a bad South Carolina team at home with a loss away to Kentucky. Normally, losing at Rupp wouldn't lead me to do that. Turnovers, bad shot selection, and an apparent interest in not winning a game against an inconsistent opponent will though. Gus Johnson was on Defcon 6 yesterday afternoon during the late stages, which completely made my weekend. Butler is a team due to move into a protected seed with a slip up on the four line. Arizona and Pittsburgh, however, could go either up or down based on injuries. I anticipate the Wildcats will move up with Jerryd Bayless's return, but the Panthers depth will be challenged in the Big East.
The Rest of the At-Larges
I had to do a lot of shuffling at the bottom of the at-large pool since there are quite a few ACC, Big East, SEC, and Pac 10 teams crowding lines 7 through 11. West Virginia moved up to an 8 seed after their convincing win over Syracuse today (I'm shaking my head as I type this...two terrible road losses for the Orange this week. They're hanging on as a 10 seed now.) As for my other team, the Gators are in as a 9 seed this week, but if they play with as much heart as they did in their first two conference games...watch out! I had to flip Gonzaga and Boston College on the 11 and 12 lines for balance (and to avoid potential conference rematches), and Florida State and Arizona State on the 10 and 11 lines. The committee may be de-emphasizing avoiding early conference rematches this season, but I'll believe it when I see it.
These Auto Bids Will Straighten Themselves Out
As for the last five lines of the bracket, the vast majority of automatic bids are down here. We're down an at-large this week, as Cleveland State leads the Horizon instead of Butler. The Vikings are on the 13 line. There are quite a few teams leading their conferences early who have losing records against Division 1 opponents and terrible computer profiles
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-7)
Jacksonville (6-8)
Hartford (8-9)
Idaho State (3-10)
Northwestern State (3-9)
Dartmouth (5-8)
In non-conference play, the SWAC and Ohio Valley as a whole have been terrible against Division 1 competition. The SWAC is currently 8-86. Yes, that means they haven't cracked .100 in winning percentage! (They're mired at .086.) The OVC is 16-62, good to barely crack .200 (.205 actually). The OVC will have BracketBusters to improve their mark, but the SWAC doesn't participate in this event, so they may be out of chances to get to 10 percent.
I'll be back later in the week with some previews and analysis. Before I go, here's some key information about this week's bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Pacific 10 - 6
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
Horizon - 2
Missouri Valley -2
West Coast - 2
Last Four In
Baylor
St. Joseph's
Boston College
Gonzaga
Last Four Out
Louisville
New Mexico
NC State
Southern California
Next Four Out
Brigham Young
George Mason
Kansas State
Virginia Commonwealth
Also Considered
Alabama
California
Duquesne
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Providence
Purdue
Wake Forest
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
I have big plans for this season (and beyond) that I won't quite get into yet. Since I'm not in the process of job hunting and relocating this season, I'll be posting more and delivering more analysis as the season progresses. But without further delay...here is Bracket Number One.
The Top Quarter of the S-Curve
For as early in the season as it is, the top seed line was unbelievably easy to set up. The consensus is that North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas are the top four teams in the country at the moment, and I don't disagree. I've placed these four teams in this order in the bracket, setting up a potential UNC-Kansas and Memphis-UCLA Final Four. There's room for movement on the two and three lines. Georgetown. Michigan State, Duke, and Tennessee are the two seeds; four clubs who could all move up with slip ups by the top seeds. Indiana leads the three line (where things start to get really interesting), but two matchups with the Spartans could see those two teams switch places as the season progresses. Washington State was a candidate for a two seed going into their game at UCLA Saturday afternoon, but the loss at Pauley and weak non-conference slate makes them a three. Look out for Xavier, who beat the Hoosiers in a Thanksgiving event in the Chicago suburbs. Even though the Musketeers dropped a close one to Tennessee and got trounced by a under the radar Arizona State squad, they've been crushing teams of late and the Atlantic 10 schedule will be a boost to their computer numbers this year. Texas, a solid side who isn't missing Kevin Durant much, rounds out the three line. The four line includes a couple of teams who are quietly winning under the radar (Texas A&M and Wisconsin), a solid Marquette team who had an odd week at home (beating Seton Hall by 5, then steamrolling Notre Dame), and Dayton. I still can't believe St. Louis took the Flyers to overtime last night. Of course, the Billikens did revert to their woeful offensive ways in the extra period.
The Five Line
On the five line, Vanderbilt would be higher, if not for following up a struggle with a bad South Carolina team at home with a loss away to Kentucky. Normally, losing at Rupp wouldn't lead me to do that. Turnovers, bad shot selection, and an apparent interest in not winning a game against an inconsistent opponent will though. Gus Johnson was on Defcon 6 yesterday afternoon during the late stages, which completely made my weekend. Butler is a team due to move into a protected seed with a slip up on the four line. Arizona and Pittsburgh, however, could go either up or down based on injuries. I anticipate the Wildcats will move up with Jerryd Bayless's return, but the Panthers depth will be challenged in the Big East.
The Rest of the At-Larges
I had to do a lot of shuffling at the bottom of the at-large pool since there are quite a few ACC, Big East, SEC, and Pac 10 teams crowding lines 7 through 11. West Virginia moved up to an 8 seed after their convincing win over Syracuse today (I'm shaking my head as I type this...two terrible road losses for the Orange this week. They're hanging on as a 10 seed now.) As for my other team, the Gators are in as a 9 seed this week, but if they play with as much heart as they did in their first two conference games...watch out! I had to flip Gonzaga and Boston College on the 11 and 12 lines for balance (and to avoid potential conference rematches), and Florida State and Arizona State on the 10 and 11 lines. The committee may be de-emphasizing avoiding early conference rematches this season, but I'll believe it when I see it.
These Auto Bids Will Straighten Themselves Out
As for the last five lines of the bracket, the vast majority of automatic bids are down here. We're down an at-large this week, as Cleveland State leads the Horizon instead of Butler. The Vikings are on the 13 line. There are quite a few teams leading their conferences early who have losing records against Division 1 opponents and terrible computer profiles
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-7)
Jacksonville (6-8)
Hartford (8-9)
Idaho State (3-10)
Northwestern State (3-9)
Dartmouth (5-8)
In non-conference play, the SWAC and Ohio Valley as a whole have been terrible against Division 1 competition. The SWAC is currently 8-86. Yes, that means they haven't cracked .100 in winning percentage! (They're mired at .086.) The OVC is 16-62, good to barely crack .200 (.205 actually). The OVC will have BracketBusters to improve their mark, but the SWAC doesn't participate in this event, so they may be out of chances to get to 10 percent.
I'll be back later in the week with some previews and analysis. Before I go, here's some key information about this week's bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Pacific 10 - 6
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 -4
Big Ten - 4
Horizon - 2
Missouri Valley -2
West Coast - 2
Last Four In
Baylor
St. Joseph's
Boston College
Gonzaga
Last Four Out
Louisville
New Mexico
NC State
Southern California
Next Four Out
Brigham Young
George Mason
Kansas State
Virginia Commonwealth
Also Considered
Alabama
California
Duquesne
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Providence
Purdue
Wake Forest
E-mail comments to orangegator13@yahoo.com.
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